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Regional Variations of Demographic Transitions: China’s Changing Demographic Landscapes Max Lu Department of Geography Kansas State University [email protected]

Apr 01, 2015



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Regional Variations of Demographic Transitions: Chinas Changing Demographic Landscapes Max Lu Department of Geography Kansas State University [email protected] Slide 2 Topics to be Covered Population size Growth Distribution Ethnic composition Changing demographic landscapes An activity Slide 3 31 Provincial Units (Not including Taiwan) Slide 4 The most populous country in the world 1.335 billion at the end of 2009 Just under 1/5 of the worlds total > 4 times as large as the US pop. Large than the combined populations of Europe, the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Russia, and Japan Europe 584.7 mil the US 297.1 Canada 32.2 Total: 1294.6 (2008) Mexico110.5 Russia142.2 Japan127.9 Lined up shoulder to shoulder, could go around the earth over 30 times! Slide 5 Still growing at about 7 million a year But India is expected to pass China in 2025 Population: both Greatest Asset and Liability Several of Chinas demographic traits are similar to those of developed countries Slide 6 China Compared to the US Source: PRB, 2009 ChinaUS Total pop (mid-2009) 1,331.4306.8 Density (pop/mi 2 ) 360 83 Birth rate 12 14 Death rate 7 8 TFR 1.6 2.1 Infant mortality 21 6.6 Life expectancym. 71, f. 75 m.75, f.80 % Urban 46 79 % of pop > 65 yrs 8 13 Per capita GNI ppp $6,020$46,970 Slide 7 Population Growth For a pop to grow steadily, several conditions must be met: Enough food to feed pop. Sufficient medical care, so people dont die young Capacity to cope with natural disasters Minimum political turmoil Chinese pop. fluctuated considerably over time Intro of potatoes boosted pop. growth Slide 8 Historical Growth YearDynasty Pop (in mil.) 2140 BCEarly days of the Xia13.55 2 ADHan59.59 280Han16.16 755Tang52.92 1110Song46.73 1403Ming66.60 1762Qing200.47 1949541 Slide 9 Rapid Increase after 1949 It took about 3800 yrs to increase from 10m to 100 mil Net increase in recent periods: 1949-58120 mil 1962-70157 1971-80135 1982-90127 1990-00132 Exceeded 1 billion in 1982 Need to slow down Slide 10 Population Distribution Where Most People Live: Near Coasts Flat Terrain Near Rivers Temperate Climates Fertile Soil Chinas Pop Distribution: Very Uneven Striking Differences b/w East and West Slide 11 World Population Distribution 4 Clusters: East AsiaS. Asia EuropeNE US & SE CA Slide 12 Slide 13 West-East Contrasts WestEast Land60%40% ClimateArid/Semi Arid Humid Pop.About 80 m94% Many minoritiesHan Majority Sparsely populatedDensely populated CitiesSomeMost Agri.Limited/OasisMost agr. land Slide 14 Slide 15 Ethnic Composition 56 ethnic groups Han people The majority - about 94% of the total Reside mainly in the east Slide 16 Slide 17 Slide 18 Minority Nationalities Several are Big (in millions, Year 2000) Zhuang16.2 Million Manchu10.7 Hui (Muslim) 9.8 Miao 8.9 Uygurs 8.4 Slide 19 Some Are Small Naxi308,800 People Once a Matriarchal Society A-Zhu Marriage Dai1.2 Million Slide 20 Slide 21 Pre-Policy Traditional culture values large families In the early 1950s under the rule of Mao Zedong birth control policies were condemned. Mao said that controlling the population was a way of slaughtering the Chinese people without drawing blood. [the people] are the most precious of all categories of capital. Slide 22 Late, Thin, and Few A campaign launched in 1971 Delayed marriage/childbirth, spacing births at 5- year intervals, and fewer children per couple Contraceptives widely distributed, free of charge Require government permission to have children Family Planning Committees at all levels of governments Birth control nannies Intrusive questions Slide 23 One Couple, One Child Adopted in 1979 The harshest birth control policy in the world? Couples are asked to pledge to having only one child Slide 24 Incentives Free prenatal care Many rewards (mainly to urban residents): larger homes, larger salaries and promotions. Better, often free education for the only children. Paid maternity leave, 3-6 months, or longer The government generally pays for the birth control costs. Slide 25 Consequences of Violation The official sanction is a fine, but many times much more harsh actions are taken. Sometimes couples are demoted or fired from their jobs. Those having 2nd child cannot register them and therefore they do not legally exist. Slide 26 Slide 27 Many exceptions for second child have been introduced since 1984 Examples: Both members of the couple are only children First child is disabled For rural residents, if first child is a girl Remarried couples Minority couples Slide 28 Debate on the One Couple, One Child Allow each couple to have two children? pros vs cons Slide 29 The Changing Demographic Landscapes Slide 30 The Impetus for Change Unprecedented Socioeconomic Transitions - From a socialist economy to a market economy - From an agrarian society to an urban, industrial giant - A growing middle class, - Changes in values and social norms Birth Control Policies - Traditional culture favored large families and male heir - Birth control practice in the early 1970: Late, thin, few - One couple, one child in 1979 - Modifications of the one child policy Slide 31 The Changing Demographic Landscapes Decline in Fertility A Rapid Demographic Transition Aging A Skewed Sex Ratio Large-scale Internal Migration esp. rural-urban migration Whither One Couple, One Child? Slide 32 Decline in Birth Rates TFR:1971: 5.442009: 1.6 Fell below replacement level since 1992 Well below 1.0 in large cities (Beijing, Shanghai, etc.) Birth rate: 1970: 33.43 2009: 12.13 Natural growth:1970: 25.832009: 5.05 Shanghai: negative growth 17 years in a row so far Significantly lowered pop growth 1971-2009: 400 million fewer people were born because of family planning ?? Slide 33 Birth Rates by Province, 2007 Slide 34 A Rapid Demographic Transition Slide 35 Slide 36 Chinas Demographic Transitions 1949, 2 nd stage of demographic transition High birth (36), high but declining death (20) Early 1960s: 3 rd stage Birth and death rates started to converge Late 1970s: 4 th stage Low birth and death rates Slide 37 The Chinese Case Slide 38 Population Aging The Graying of the Chinese Population: 2015: 10% 2035: 20% 2050: 25% Slide 39 Population aging 2000 % 65 yrs or older:6.96% 2009: 8% Elderly growing at 3.2% each year May reach 10% at 2015, and 20% at 2035 Slide 40 Getting Old before Getting Rich According to a UN study, China is aging faster than other country in history. The median age is on pace to move from the current 32 years to 44 years by 2040. Slide 41 How to Care for the Growing Elderly Population? Slide 42 Slide 43 Skewed Sex Ratio Currently at 119:100 surfeit of boys and dearth of young women Increase by birth order Substantial regional differences 3 Main Reasons: Son preference Use of prenatal sex-detecting technology Declining fertility In 2020, 30-40 million more young men than women Social repercussions Demographic time bomb Slide 44 The Care for Girls Program Launched in 2003 Changing Son Preference? Slide 45 Chinese On the Move Slide 46 Tourists in Downtown Shanghai Slide 47 Slide 48 Slide 49 Urbanization Level Slide 50 Slide 51 Finally, an activity about how the age-sex structure of Chinas population evolves over time using data and tools from the U.S. Census Bureau. Slide 52 Slide 53 Slide 54 Slide 55 Slide 56 Slide 57 Slide 58 Slide 59 Slide 60 Slide 61 Slide 62 Slide 63

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