Regional sea level projections and attribution

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Regional sea level projections and

attribution

Roderik van de WalIMAU Utrecht

Nov 2012

Contributions from: A. Slangen, C. Katsman, P. Leclercq, J. Gregory, B. Vermeersen

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Munk’s enigma (2002)

“The historic rise started too early, has too linear a trend, and is too large”

(about sea level rise in the 20th century)

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The global budget

IPCC AR4 2007 Gregory et al. in press

Blue: 1961-2003Brown:1993-2003

Recent insights show that due to increased thermal expansion and and increased contribution from glaciers the budget maybe closed

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Attribution

Global scale satisfying*no gap between explained and

observed“Local” scale

*Some regions convincing climate response with distinct

pattern*non-climate effects not to be

excluded

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Projections

Excluding the effect of recent dynamical changes in ice sheets

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How can ice change it’s mass

Butressing effect

Lubrication effect

CLIMATE

DYNAMICS

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How to calculate SLC?

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Predictions NL versus global

RCP8.5

Median

NL +10%

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Possibility for early warning systems sea

level rise

Gravity measurements

Radar altimetry

Ice velocitySource: Katsman (2011)

WU10Greenland

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Future developments

• Hazard risk assessment• Expert solicitation exercises• Deterministic improvements