Reducing emissions from agriculture to meet the Paris Agreement goals

However, known practices could deliver just 21-40% of the needed reductions, even if implemented fully at scale. To meet the full agricultural mitigation target, we need urgent investment in:

We also need to reduce emissions throughout the food system; agriculture, forestry, and land use combined (AFOLU) would need to contribute 7-10 Gigatonnes of mitigation in 2050.

To meet the target for AFOLU, we need to fully use mitigation options that do not

compromise food security:

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110Em

issi

ons

from

ag

ricul

ture

(GtC

O2e

/yr

)

Reducing emissions from agriculture to meet the Paris Agreement goalsE.Wollenberg1,20,M.Richards1,20,P.Smith17,18,P.Havlík9,M.Obersteiner9,F.N.Tubiello7,M.Herold22,P.Gerber7,22,S.Carter22,A.Reisinger14,D.vanVuuren15†,A.Dickie2,H.Neufeldt8,B.O.Sander13,R.Wassmann13,R.Sommer3,J.E.Amonette16,A.Falcucci7,M.Herrero6,C.Opio7,R.Roman-Cuesta4,22,E.Stehfest15,H.Westhoek15,I.Ortiz-Monasterio5,T.Sapkota5†,M.C.Rufino4,P.K.Thornton1,10,L.

Verchot4,P.C.West12,J.-F.Soussana11,T.Baedeker21,M.Sadler21,S.Vermeulen1,19,B.M.Campbell1,3,S.Frank9

According to the IPCC scenario that limits warming to 2°C in 2100 . . .

The agriculture sector must reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions by 1 Gigatonne per year by 2030 to stay within the 2°C limit

What are the implications of AFOLU mitigation for food security?

We need a sectoral target to assess ambition and measure progress

1 CCAFS:CGIARResearchProgramonClimateChange,AgricultureandFood Security2 CEA:CaliforniaEnvironmentalAssociates3 CIAT:InternationalCenterforTropicalAgriculture4 CIFOR:CenterforInternationalForestryResearch5 CIMMYT:InternationalMaizeandWheatImprovementCenter6CSIRO:CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation7 FAO:FoodandAgricultureOrganizationof

theUnitedNations8 ICRAF:WorldAgroforestryCentre9 IIASA: InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis10 ILRI:InternationalLivestockResearchInstitute11INRA:FrenchNationalInstituteforAgriculturalResearch12 IONE:InstituteontheEnvironment,UniversityofMinnesota13 IRRI:InternationalRiceResearchInstitute14 NZAGRC:NewZealandAgricultural

GreenhouseGasResearchCentre15 PBL:NetherlandsEnvironmentalAssessmentAgency16 PNNL:PacificNorthwestNationalLaboratory17 ScottishFoodSecurityAlliance-Crops18 UAberdeen:UniversityofAberdeen19 UCopenhagen:UniversityofCopenhagen20 UVM:UniversityofVermont21 WB:WorldBank22WUR:WageningenUniversityandResearchCentre

Author affiliations

119 countries included mitigation in agriculture in their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions.

But how do we gauge the ambition of those commitments?

Agriculture will need to limit its emissions to about 6 GigatonnesCO2e per year by 2030.

This requires mitigation of 1 Gigatonne in 2030 based on our current

trajectory, increasing to

over 2 Gigatonnes

in 2050.

Baseline

2°Cscenario

2°C scenario

Higher levels, like those required to meet the 2°C target, may drive up food prices and therefore reduce calorie availability in food insecure regions.*

Low levels of AFOLU mitigation can be achieved with little impact on food security.

Food security remains higher if all countries participate in AFOLU mitigation.

Lossincalorieavailability(kilocalories/person),comparedtonoAFOLUmitigation

Like soil carbon sequestration

and halting land use change in countries where land is plentiful.

Policiesandstandardsthatsupportmoreambitiousmitigation

Likecarbonpricing,taxes&subsidies

andcropsthatinhibitnitrous

oxideproduction

Promisinglow-emissionstechnicalinnovations

Farmers’capacitytousenewpractices

Throughfinance,incentives&

technicalknowledge

Read more about AFOLU mitigation and food security

*As modeled using a carbon tax.

Read more about the 1 Gt target

AFOLU

mitigatio

n(GtCO2e/year)