However, known practices could deliver just 21-40% of the needed reductions, even if implemented fully at scale. To meet the full agricultural mitigation target, we need urgent investment in: We also need to reduce emissions throughout the food system; agriculture, forestry, and land use combined (AFOLU) would need to contribute 7-10 Gigatonnes of mitigation in 2050. To meet the target for AFOLU, we need to fully use mitigation options that do not compromise food security: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 Emissions from agriculture (GtCO 2 e /yr) Reducing emissions from agriculture to meet the Paris Agreement goals E. Wollenberg 1,20 , M. Richards 1,20 , P. Smith 17,18 , P. Havlík 9 , M. Obersteiner 9 , F.N. Tubiello 7 , M. Herold 22 ,P. Gerber 7,22 , S. Carter 22 , A. Reisinger 14 , D. van Vuuren 15† , A. Dickie 2 , H. Neufeldt 8 , B.O. Sander 13 , R. Wassmann 13 , R. Sommer 3 , J.E. Amonette 16 , A. Falcucci 7 , M. Herrero 6 , C. Opio 7 , R. Roman-Cuesta 4,22 , E. Stehfest 15 , H. Westhoek 15 , I. Ortiz-Monasterio 5 , T. Sapkota 5† , M.C. Rufino 4 , P.K. Thornton 1,10 , L. Verchot 4 , P.C. West 12 , J.-F. Soussana 11 , T. Baedeker 21 , M. Sadler 21 , S. Vermeulen 1,19 , B.M. Campbell 1,3 , S. Frank 9 According to the IPCC scenario that limits warming to 2°C in 2100 . . . The agriculture sector must reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions by 1 Gigatonne per year by 2030 to stay within the 2°C limit What are the implications of AFOLU mitigation for food security? We need a sectoral target to assess ambition and measure progress 1 CCAFS: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security 2 CEA: California Environmental Associates 3 CIAT: International Center for Tropical Agriculture 4 CIFOR: Center for International Forestry Research 5 CIMMYT: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center 6 CSIRO: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation 7 FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 8 ICRAF: World Agroforestry Centre 9 IIASA: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis 10 ILRI: International Livestock Research Institute 11 INRA: French National Institute for Agricultural Research 12 IONE: Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota 13 IRRI: International Rice Research Institute 14 NZAGRC: New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre 15 PBL: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 16 PNNL: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 17 Scottish Food Security Alliance-Crops 18 U Aberdeen: University of Aberdeen 19 U Copenhagen: University of Copenhagen 20 UVM: University of Vermont 21 WB: World Bank 22 WUR: Wageningen University and Research Centre Author affiliations 119 countries included mitigation in agriculture in their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions. But how do we gauge the ambition of those commitments? Agriculture will need to limit its emissions to about 6 Gigatonnes CO 2 e per year by 2030. This requires mitigation of 1 Gigatonne in 2030 based on our current trajectory, increasing to over 2 Gigatonnes in 2050. Baseline 2°C scenario 2°C scenario Higher levels, like those required to meet the 2°C target, may drive up food prices and therefore reduce calorie availability in food insecure regions.* Low levels of AFOLU mitigation can be achieved with little impact on food security. Food security remains higher if all countries participate in AFOLU mitigation. Loss in calorie availability (kilocalories/person), compared to no AFOLU mitigation Like soil carbon sequestration and halting land use change in countries where land is plentiful. Policies and standards that support more ambitious mitigation Like carbon pricing, taxes & subsidies and crops that inhibit nitrous oxide production Promising low-emissions technical innovations Farmers’ capacity to use new practices Through finance, incentives & technical knowledge Read more about AFOLU mitigation and food security *As modeled using a carbon tax. Read more about the 1 Gt target AFOLU mitigation (GtCO 2 e/year)
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However, known practices could deliver just 21-40% of the needed reductions, even if implemented fully at scale. To meet the full agricultural mitigation target, we need urgent investment in:
We also need to reduce emissions throughout the food system; agriculture, forestry, and land use combined (AFOLU) would need to contribute 7-10 Gigatonnes of mitigation in 2050.
To meet the target for AFOLU, we need to fully use mitigation options that do not
compromise food security:
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110Em
issi
ons
from
ag
ricul
ture
(GtC
O2e
/yr
)
Reducing emissions from agriculture to meet the Paris Agreement goalsE.Wollenberg1,20,M.Richards1,20,P.Smith17,18,P.Havlík9,M.Obersteiner9,F.N.Tubiello7,M.Herold22,P.Gerber7,22,S.Carter22,A.Reisinger14,D.vanVuuren15†,A.Dickie2,H.Neufeldt8,B.O.Sander13,R.Wassmann13,R.Sommer3,J.E.Amonette16,A.Falcucci7,M.Herrero6,C.Opio7,R.Roman-Cuesta4,22,E.Stehfest15,H.Westhoek15,I.Ortiz-Monasterio5,T.Sapkota5†,M.C.Rufino4,P.K.Thornton1,10,L.
Verchot4,P.C.West12,J.-F.Soussana11,T.Baedeker21,M.Sadler21,S.Vermeulen1,19,B.M.Campbell1,3,S.Frank9
According to the IPCC scenario that limits warming to 2°C in 2100 . . .
The agriculture sector must reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions by 1 Gigatonne per year by 2030 to stay within the 2°C limit
What are the implications of AFOLU mitigation for food security?
We need a sectoral target to assess ambition and measure progress
1 CCAFS:CGIARResearchProgramonClimateChange,AgricultureandFood Security2 CEA:CaliforniaEnvironmentalAssociates3 CIAT:InternationalCenterforTropicalAgriculture4 CIFOR:CenterforInternationalForestryResearch5 CIMMYT:InternationalMaizeandWheatImprovementCenter6CSIRO:CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation7 FAO:FoodandAgricultureOrganizationof
theUnitedNations8 ICRAF:WorldAgroforestryCentre9 IIASA: InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis10 ILRI:InternationalLivestockResearchInstitute11INRA:FrenchNationalInstituteforAgriculturalResearch12 IONE:InstituteontheEnvironment,UniversityofMinnesota13 IRRI:InternationalRiceResearchInstitute14 NZAGRC:NewZealandAgricultural
GreenhouseGasResearchCentre15 PBL:NetherlandsEnvironmentalAssessmentAgency16 PNNL:PacificNorthwestNationalLaboratory17 ScottishFoodSecurityAlliance-Crops18 UAberdeen:UniversityofAberdeen19 UCopenhagen:UniversityofCopenhagen20 UVM:UniversityofVermont21 WB:WorldBank22WUR:WageningenUniversityandResearchCentre
Author affiliations
119 countries included mitigation in agriculture in their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions.
But how do we gauge the ambition of those commitments?
Agriculture will need to limit its emissions to about 6 GigatonnesCO2e per year by 2030.
This requires mitigation of 1 Gigatonne in 2030 based on our current
trajectory, increasing to
over 2 Gigatonnes
in 2050.
Baseline
2°Cscenario
2°C scenario
Higher levels, like those required to meet the 2°C target, may drive up food prices and therefore reduce calorie availability in food insecure regions.*
Low levels of AFOLU mitigation can be achieved with little impact on food security.
Food security remains higher if all countries participate in AFOLU mitigation.
Lossincalorieavailability(kilocalories/person),comparedtonoAFOLUmitigation
Like soil carbon sequestration
and halting land use change in countries where land is plentiful.
Policiesandstandardsthatsupportmoreambitiousmitigation
Likecarbonpricing,taxes&subsidies
andcropsthatinhibitnitrous
oxideproduction
Promisinglow-emissionstechnicalinnovations
Farmers’capacitytousenewpractices
Throughfinance,incentives&
technicalknowledge
Read more about AFOLU mitigation and food security
*As modeled using a carbon tax.
Read more about the 1 Gt target
AFOLU
mitigatio
n(GtCO2e/year)
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