Reduce Monthly Natural Gas Consumption
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Natural Gas Consumption 1
Reduce Monthly Natural Gas Consumption
May 2010
Group Members:-Seyed Alireza Tabatabaei----
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL 2
Answer These Q’s in Define Phase
What is the problem being addressed? Who is the customer? What are the business reasons for completing this project? What is the goal of this project? Describe the benefits of this project Where, when and to what extent does this problem occur? What are the boundaries of this project? What resources will be needed for this project? What do you need from your sponsor? team? What data has been collected to understand customer
requirements? What criteria was used in selecting your project?
Define
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALThis is a Header 3
Y Statement Reduce monthly natural gas consumption by 20%
for the months of Dec thru Mar Set back temperature Insulation improvements
Define
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Develop A Charter Business Case – Why am I doing this project?
Cost savings, Carbon footprint reduction ME 414 Class Hands on experiment
• Learn 6S approach to a given goal• Learn data analysis
Schedule Complete data collection by mid March before outside
temp warms up Complete analysis tool development during ME414
Spring 2010 semester
Define
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Process Map Do I understand the process? What are the critical parameters? What are the failure modes? Can I measure the quantity to be improved with
at least 80% confidence?
DefineProcess
Map
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Process Map Allows people to illustrate what happens in a
process Useful for clarifying the scope of a project Excellent visual aide for identifying the “hidden
factory” (rework/defect prevention) Identifies all the potential inputs that may affect
the key outputs of the process
Everything we do is a process …some processes are straight forward
…other processes can be chaotic
DefineProcess
Map
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Types of Process Map Process Variables Map
Used as the first step in the Six Sigma process (Funnel Effect)
Critical to successfully improving processes by reducing and removing variation
“As is/Can be” Map Excellent method for identifying non-value-added steps Necessary first step in cycle time reduction projects
Other types used for specific purposes: Swim-lane, SIPOC, flow-chart, etc…
DefineProcess
Map
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The Funneling Effect
Critical Input Variables
30+ Inputs
8 - 10
4 - 8
3 - 6
Found Critical X’s
Controlling Critical X’s
10 - 15
All X’s
1st “Hit List”
Screened List
MEASURE
ANALYZE
IMPROVE
CONTROL
• Process Maps
• Failure Modes and Effects Analysis
• Multi-Vari Studies
• Design of Experiments (DOE)
• Control Plans
• C&E Matrix
DefineProcess
Map
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Detailed Process Map What is the tool?
Graphical illustration of your process
What will the tool identify? All value-added and non-
value-added process steps Key Process Inputs (X’s)
(KPIV) Key Process Outputs
(Y’s) (KPOV) Data Collection Points
When do you apply process mapping? Always
What are results of Process Mapping? Identify systems
needing Measurement Studies
Identify KPOV’s for Capability Studies
Identify missing elements in the Control Plan
Identify possible non-value-added process steps
DefineProcess
Map
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Process Map Thermostat
Set back temp? Furnace Energy Consumption Gas Bill Measurement system
Energy cost gas & electricity
Measure
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Critical Parameter Management
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Measure MSA
Measurement system capability study• Temp sensors, A/D converters• Compare calculated degree days to published deg-days of
Carmel• Inside humidity accuracy
Furnace on time estimate or measurement accuracy
Measure
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Heating Degree DaysVectren Bill vs. HDD Measurements
Correlation between vectren, internet site and measured HDD days
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Measure
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Heating Deg Days vs. Therms Used
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Measure
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HDD vs. Therms Regression Analysis
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Good linear correlation between Therms and heating degree days P value is zero
31.7 Therms at zero heating degree days Water heater
consumption is 31.7 Therms
Measure
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Error AnalysisDeviation from Therms vs HDD linearity
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Expect to have a random error No
common cause for errors
Error should not have a trend
No common cause for errors
Error is normally
distributed
Measure
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Monthly Variation of HDDJan 2007 – Jan 2010
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Months of February and November shows the most variation. Why?
Measure
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Does the Setup Measure Energy Consumption Accurately
For each of the 24 hr data set Calculate the heater on time Calculate heating degree days Plot HDD vs. heater on time
Does it show a linear behavior
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Measure
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Analysis
ME 414 – 6S Approach 19
Heater on Time vs HDD
DateTotal Heater On Time
(hrs)
Total Heater On
Time (days)
Calculated
HDD
Theoretical
HDD
Error percent
22-Jan 0.284 0.011833333 30.05351743 30 0.17839144328-Jan 1.325 0.055208333 49.58732704 48 3.30693134229-Jan 1.328 0.055333333 50.30495225 50 0.6099044973-Feb 0.828 0.0345 36.87681015 37 0.3329455534-Feb 1.0465 0.043604167 33.9020865 35 3.1368957025-Feb 1.185 0.049375 32.6507873 32 2.0337103226-Feb 1.057 0.044041667 42.25509352 41 3.061203695
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Analysis
ME 414 – 6S Approach 20
Heater on Time vs HDD
Calculated HDD vs. Total Heatre On Time
y = 382.75x + 23.306R2 = 0.5049
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06
Total Heater on Time (days)
Calc
ulat
ed H
DD
Calculated HDD
Linear (Calculated HDD)
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Analysis
ME 414 – 6S Approach 21
Heater on Time vs HDD
Caculated HDD vs. Actual HDD
y = 1.0555x - 1.788R2 = 0.9906
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Calculated HDD
Linear (Calculated HDD)
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Analysis
ME 414 – 6S Approach 22
Heater on Time vs HDD
Error percent
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
22-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 3-Feb 4-Feb 5-Feb 6-Feb
Error percent
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Heater On Time Calculation Options to calculate heater on time
Measure register air temp with LM34 sensor or a thermistor
• Heated air transport delay time between furnace and register where sensor is located
Microphone to detect air movement• Negligible air movement transport delay
Detect heater on signal from the controller• Best method for heater on time accuracy• Requires one or two more microcontroller I/O pins to pick-
up the fan on and heater on signals• Communication signals are at 24V. Signal needs to be
reduced to 5V before connecting to microcontroller I/O.• Thermostat to furnace communication needs to be decoded. It
is a function of the thermostat brand.
Measure
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Relationship between Therms and Heater On Time
Convert heater on time to Therms Furnace spec (BTU-hr, efficiency, model #)
Calculate house heat loss using the excel file Compare calculated heat loss to Therms
calculated from heater on time Is there a good correlation between analysis and
measurement?
Measure
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Analysis Therms analysis
ME 414 – 6S Approach 25
DateTotal Heater On
Time (hrs)
Total Heater On
Time (days)
Calculated
HDD
Theoretical HDD Error
percent
Energy Consumption (BTU) Energy Consumption
(Therms)22-Jan 0.284 0.011833333 30.05351743 30 0.178391 18744 0.1874428-Jan 1.325 0.055208333 49.58732704 48 3.306931 87450 0.874529-Jan 1.328 0.055333333 50.30495225 50 0.609904 87648 0.876483-Feb 0.828 0.0345 36.87681015 37 0.332946 54648 0.546484-Feb 1.0465 0.043604167 33.9020865 35 3.136896 69069 0.690695-Feb 1.185 0.049375 32.6507873 32 2.03371 78210 0.78216-Feb 1.057 0.044041667 42.25509352 41 3.061204 69762 0.69762
BTU/hr BTU Therm-8934.34 -58704867.84 -587.0486784
Total Heat loss for heating season (9 months) : (from the excel file)
BTU/hr BTU Therm-992.7044444 -6522763.093 -65.22763093
Total Heat loss for January : (from the excel file)
BTU/hr BTU Therm-32.02272401 -210411.7127 -2.104117127
Average Daily Heat Loss for January: (form the excel file)
BTU/hr BTU Therm-8934.34 -58704867.84 -587.0486784
Total Heat loss for heating season (9 months) : (from the excel file)
BTU/hr BTU Therm-992.7044444 -6522763.093 -65.22763093
Total Heat loss for February : (from the excel file)
BTU/hr BTU Therm-35.45373016 -232955.8248 -2.329558248
Average Daily Heat Loss for February: (form the excel file)
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Measurement Error Error due to long signal wires Filter design
Impact on mean value
ME 414 – 6S Approach 26
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Temperature & Humidity Measurement System
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LM34
HIH 4000
Measurement System Components LM34 Temperature sensor HIH4000 Humidity sensor LTC1298 A/D converter
HVAC Register Outlet Temp
Outside Ambient Temperature
Room Humidity & Temperature
Measure
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First Order Low Pass Filters
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Original Signal
GreenFrom LM34
RedTo LTC 1298
Cut-Off
Cut-Off
Cut-Off
(Hz)
Ground
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Initial Capability Initial capability
What is the current energy usage as baseline where savings will be calculated from
• Degree day comparison• Past 5 to 10 years gas and electric bills (kWhr used not $$
$) Calculate heat loss from the house using the excel
analysis tool• Make the tool more general to include individual rooms
Run transient heat transfer analysis using the Matlab tool and compare to measured data
Analyze
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Analysis Energy Cost Analysis
ME 414 – 6S Approach 30
Date Total Heater On Time (hrs) Total Heater On Time (days) Calculated HDD Theoretical HDD Error percent Energy Consumption (BTU) Energy Consumption (Therms) Energy Cost $
22-Jan 0.284 0.011833333 30.05351743 30 0.178391443 18744 0.18744 5745.03628-Jan 1.325 0.055208333 49.58732704 48 3.306931342 87450 0.8745 26803.42529-Jan 1.328 0.055333333 50.30495225 50 0.609904497 87648 0.87648 26864.1123-Feb 0.828 0.0345 36.87681015 37 0.332945553 54648 0.54648 16749.6124-Feb 1.0465 0.043604167 33.9020865 35 3.136895702 69069 0.69069 21169.64855-Feb 1.185 0.049375 32.6507873 32 2.033710322 78210 0.7821 23971.3656-Feb 1.057 0.044041667 42.25509352 41 3.061203695 69762 0.69762 21382.053
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Results The cost for one day at
these temperatures is: $0.33
The optimal day time temperature is: 51 Degrees F
The total running time per day is: 97 Minutes
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Number of peaks =29
T_Out
T_Reg
T_Room
Humidity
Jan 22nd
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Results The cost for one day at
these temperatures is: $0.13
The optimal day time temperature is: 59 Degrees F
The total running time per day is: 38 Minutes
Jan 28th
Number of peaks =51
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
T_Out
T_Reg
T_Room
Humidity
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Results
The cost for one day at these temperatures is: $0.18
The optimal day time temperature is: 47 Degrees F
The total running time per day is: 53 Minutes
Jan 29th
Number of peaks =59
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
T_Out
T_Reg
T_Room
Humidity
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ResultsNumber of peaks =33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
T_Out
T_Reg
T_Room
Humidity
• The cost for one day at these temperatures is: $0.24
• The optimal day time temperature is: 48 Degrees F
• The total running time per day is: 71 Minutes
Feb 3rd
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Results
The cost for one day at these temperatures is: $0.28
The optimal day time temperature is: 50 Degrees F
The total running time per day is: 83 Minutes
Number of peaks =48
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 5 10 15 20 25
T_Out
T_Reg
T_Room
Humidity
Feb 4th
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Results
The cost for one day at these temperatures is: $0.27
The optimal day time temperature is: 50 Degrees F
The total running time per day is: 79 Minutes
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Number of peaks=57
T_Out
T_Reg
T_Room
Humidity
Feb 5th
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Results
The cost for one day at these temperatures is: $0.22
The optimal day time temperature is: 49 Degrees F
The total running time per day is: 64 Minutes
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Number of peaks=50
T_Out
T_Reg
T_Room
Humidity
Feb 6th
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Multi-Vari Effect of degree days on energy used Heat leaks from the house
Thermal survey around the windows Window pane inside and outside temperatures Wall inside temp of outside walls
Literature survey on set-back temperature Furnace specifications – Energy output BTU/hr
Analyze
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Setback Temperature Faster recovery time systems will have more
savings with setback Larger AC units will have shorter on times but will
remove less humidity Effect of setback is negligible if outside temp is >
4 C 8 hr setback period will save 1% energy per
degree setback
Analyze
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APPENDIX
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Therm, BTU, Joule & Calorie A BTU (British Thermal Unit) is the amount of heat
necessary to raise one pound of water by 1 degree Farenheit (F). 1 British Thermal Unit (BTU) = 1055 J 1 BTU = 252 cal = 1.055 kJ 1 Quad = 1015 BTU (World energy usage is about 300
Quads/year, US is about 100 Quads/year in 1996.) 1 therm = 100,000 BTU 1,000 kWh = 3.41 million BTU
1 calorie of heat is the amount needed to raise 1 gram of water 1 degree Centigrade. 1 calorie (cal) = 4.184 J
(The Calories in food ratings are actually kilocalories.)
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Natural Gas Energy content 1030 BTU / Cubic Foot Pounds of CO2 per billion BTU of energy:
Coal 208,000 poundsOil 164,000 poundsNatural Gas 117,000 pounds Ratios of CO2 pollution:
Oil / Natural Gas = 1.40Coal / Natural Gas = 1.78
Pounds of CO2 per 1,000 kWh, at 100% efficiency:Coal 709 poundsOil 559 poundsNatural Gas 399 pounds
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Humidity Sensor HIH4000 Datasheet
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Parallax - Sensor - Humidity - HIH 4000.pdf
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No Power to LM34
ME 414 – 6S Approach 44
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
No Power to LM34
ME 414 – 6S Approach 45
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5V to LM34 – No Capacitor
ME 414 – 6S Approach 46
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5V to LM34 & 33uF Capacitor
ME 414 – 6S Approach 47
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Freq Domain – 5V & 33uF
ME 414 – 6S Approach 48
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5V No Cap
ME 414 – 6S Approach 49
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5V No Cap
ME 414 – 6S Approach 50
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALME 414 – 6S Approach 51
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Bode Plot – Excel Version
ME 414 – 6S Approach 52
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Mag
nitu
de (d
B)
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
-90
-45
0
Phas
e (d
eg)
Bode Diagram
Frequency (rad/sec)
370
rad/
s –
59 H
z
121k rad/sec
370
rad/
s –
59 H
z
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Bode Plot – Excel Version
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Cut-Off Freq370 rad/s
(59 Hz)
Cut-Off Freq
121k rad/s(19.4 kHz)
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALME 414 – 6S Approach 54
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALME 414 – 6S Approach 55
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