Reduce Monthly Natural Gas Consumption

Natural Gas Consumption 1

Reduce Monthly Natural Gas Consumption

May 2010

Group Members:-Seyed Alireza Tabatabaei----

CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL 2

Answer These Q’s in Define Phase

What is the problem being addressed? Who is the customer? What are the business reasons for completing this project? What is the goal of this project? Describe the benefits of this project Where, when and to what extent does this problem occur? What are the boundaries of this project? What resources will be needed for this project? What do you need from your sponsor? team? What data has been collected to understand customer

requirements? What criteria was used in selecting your project?

Define

CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALThis is a Header 3

Y Statement Reduce monthly natural gas consumption by 20%

for the months of Dec thru Mar Set back temperature Insulation improvements

Define


Develop A Charter Business Case – Why am I doing this project?

Cost savings, Carbon footprint reduction ME 414 Class Hands on experiment

• Learn 6S approach to a given goal• Learn data analysis

Schedule Complete data collection by mid March before outside

temp warms up Complete analysis tool development during ME414

Spring 2010 semester

Define

CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL

Process Map Do I understand the process? What are the critical parameters? What are the failure modes? Can I measure the quantity to be improved with

at least 80% confidence?

DefineProcess

Map


Process Map Allows people to illustrate what happens in a

process Useful for clarifying the scope of a project Excellent visual aide for identifying the “hidden

factory” (rework/defect prevention) Identifies all the potential inputs that may affect

the key outputs of the process

Everything we do is a process …some processes are straight forward

…other processes can be chaotic

DefineProcess

Map


Types of Process Map Process Variables Map

Used as the first step in the Six Sigma process (Funnel Effect)

Critical to successfully improving processes by reducing and removing variation

“As is/Can be” Map Excellent method for identifying non-value-added steps Necessary first step in cycle time reduction projects

Other types used for specific purposes: Swim-lane, SIPOC, flow-chart, etc…

DefineProcess

Map


The Funneling Effect

Critical Input Variables

30+ Inputs

8 - 10

4 - 8

3 - 6

Found Critical X’s

Controlling Critical X’s

10 - 15

All X’s

1st “Hit List”

Screened List

MEASURE

ANALYZE

IMPROVE

CONTROL

• Process Maps

• Failure Modes and Effects Analysis

• Multi-Vari Studies

• Design of Experiments (DOE)

• Control Plans

• C&E Matrix

DefineProcess

Map


Detailed Process Map What is the tool?

Graphical illustration of your process

What will the tool identify? All value-added and non-

value-added process steps Key Process Inputs (X’s)

(KPIV) Key Process Outputs

(Y’s) (KPOV) Data Collection Points

When do you apply process mapping? Always

What are results of Process Mapping? Identify systems

needing Measurement Studies

Identify KPOV’s for Capability Studies

Identify missing elements in the Control Plan

Identify possible non-value-added process steps

DefineProcess

Map


Process Map Thermostat

Set back temp? Furnace Energy Consumption Gas Bill Measurement system

Energy cost gas & electricity

Measure


Critical Parameter Management


Measure MSA

Measurement system capability study• Temp sensors, A/D converters• Compare calculated degree days to published deg-days of

Carmel• Inside humidity accuracy

Furnace on time estimate or measurement accuracy

Measure


Heating Degree DaysVectren Bill vs. HDD Measurements

Correlation between vectren, internet site and measured HDD days

This is a Header 13

Measure


Heating Deg Days vs. Therms Used

This is a Header 14

Measure


HDD vs. Therms Regression Analysis

This is a Header 15

Good linear correlation between Therms and heating degree days P value is zero

31.7 Therms at zero heating degree days Water heater

consumption is 31.7 Therms

Measure


Error AnalysisDeviation from Therms vs HDD linearity

This is a Header 16

Expect to have a random error No

common cause for errors

Error should not have a trend

No common cause for errors

Error is normally

distributed

Measure


Monthly Variation of HDDJan 2007 – Jan 2010

This is a Header 17

Months of February and November shows the most variation. Why?

Measure


Does the Setup Measure Energy Consumption Accurately

For each of the 24 hr data set Calculate the heater on time Calculate heating degree days Plot HDD vs. heater on time

Does it show a linear behavior

This is a Header 18

Measure


Analysis

ME 414 – 6S Approach 19

Heater on Time vs HDD

DateTotal Heater On Time

(hrs)

Total Heater On

Time (days)

Calculated

HDD

Theoretical

HDD

Error percent

22-Jan 0.284 0.011833333 30.05351743 30 0.17839144328-Jan 1.325 0.055208333 49.58732704 48 3.30693134229-Jan 1.328 0.055333333 50.30495225 50 0.6099044973-Feb 0.828 0.0345 36.87681015 37 0.3329455534-Feb 1.0465 0.043604167 33.9020865 35 3.1368957025-Feb 1.185 0.049375 32.6507873 32 2.0337103226-Feb 1.057 0.044041667 42.25509352 41 3.061203695


Analysis



Calculated HDD vs. Total Heatre On Time

y = 382.75x + 23.306R2 = 0.5049

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06

Total Heater on Time (days)

Calc

ulat

ed H

DD

Calculated HDD

Linear (Calculated HDD)


Analysis



Caculated HDD vs. Actual HDD

y = 1.0555x - 1.788R2 = 0.9906

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Calculated HDD

Linear (Calculated HDD)


Analysis



Error percent

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

22-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 3-Feb 4-Feb 5-Feb 6-Feb

Error percent


Heater On Time Calculation Options to calculate heater on time

Measure register air temp with LM34 sensor or a thermistor

• Heated air transport delay time between furnace and register where sensor is located

Microphone to detect air movement• Negligible air movement transport delay

Detect heater on signal from the controller• Best method for heater on time accuracy• Requires one or two more microcontroller I/O pins to pick-

up the fan on and heater on signals• Communication signals are at 24V. Signal needs to be

reduced to 5V before connecting to microcontroller I/O.• Thermostat to furnace communication needs to be decoded. It

is a function of the thermostat brand.

Measure


Relationship between Therms and Heater On Time

Convert heater on time to Therms Furnace spec (BTU-hr, efficiency, model #)

Calculate house heat loss using the excel file Compare calculated heat loss to Therms

calculated from heater on time Is there a good correlation between analysis and

measurement?

Measure


Analysis Therms analysis


DateTotal Heater On

Time (hrs)

Total Heater On

Time (days)

Calculated

HDD

Theoretical HDD Error

percent

Energy Consumption (BTU) Energy Consumption

(Therms)22-Jan 0.284 0.011833333 30.05351743 30 0.178391 18744 0.1874428-Jan 1.325 0.055208333 49.58732704 48 3.306931 87450 0.874529-Jan 1.328 0.055333333 50.30495225 50 0.609904 87648 0.876483-Feb 0.828 0.0345 36.87681015 37 0.332946 54648 0.546484-Feb 1.0465 0.043604167 33.9020865 35 3.136896 69069 0.690695-Feb 1.185 0.049375 32.6507873 32 2.03371 78210 0.78216-Feb 1.057 0.044041667 42.25509352 41 3.061204 69762 0.69762

BTU/hr BTU Therm-8934.34 -58704867.84 -587.0486784

Total Heat loss for heating season (9 months) : (from the excel file)

BTU/hr BTU Therm-992.7044444 -6522763.093 -65.22763093

Total Heat loss for January : (from the excel file)

BTU/hr BTU Therm-32.02272401 -210411.7127 -2.104117127

Average Daily Heat Loss for January: (form the excel file)

BTU/hr BTU Therm-8934.34 -58704867.84 -587.0486784

Total Heat loss for heating season (9 months) : (from the excel file)

BTU/hr BTU Therm-992.7044444 -6522763.093 -65.22763093

Total Heat loss for February : (from the excel file)

BTU/hr BTU Therm-35.45373016 -232955.8248 -2.329558248

Average Daily Heat Loss for February: (form the excel file)


Measurement Error Error due to long signal wires Filter design

Impact on mean value



Temperature & Humidity Measurement System

This is a Header 27

LM34

HIH 4000

Measurement System Components LM34 Temperature sensor HIH4000 Humidity sensor LTC1298 A/D converter

HVAC Register Outlet Temp

Outside Ambient Temperature

Room Humidity & Temperature

Measure


First Order Low Pass Filters

This is a Header 28

Original Signal

GreenFrom LM34

RedTo LTC 1298

Cut-Off

Cut-Off

Cut-Off

(Hz)

Ground


Initial Capability Initial capability

What is the current energy usage as baseline where savings will be calculated from

• Degree day comparison• Past 5 to 10 years gas and electric bills (kWhr used not $$

$) Calculate heat loss from the house using the excel

analysis tool• Make the tool more general to include individual rooms

Run transient heat transfer analysis using the Matlab tool and compare to measured data

Analyze


Analysis Energy Cost Analysis


Date Total Heater On Time (hrs) Total Heater On Time (days) Calculated HDD Theoretical HDD Error percent Energy Consumption (BTU) Energy Consumption (Therms) Energy Cost $

22-Jan 0.284 0.011833333 30.05351743 30 0.178391443 18744 0.18744 5745.03628-Jan 1.325 0.055208333 49.58732704 48 3.306931342 87450 0.8745 26803.42529-Jan 1.328 0.055333333 50.30495225 50 0.609904497 87648 0.87648 26864.1123-Feb 0.828 0.0345 36.87681015 37 0.332945553 54648 0.54648 16749.6124-Feb 1.0465 0.043604167 33.9020865 35 3.136895702 69069 0.69069 21169.64855-Feb 1.185 0.049375 32.6507873 32 2.033710322 78210 0.7821 23971.3656-Feb 1.057 0.044041667 42.25509352 41 3.061203695 69762 0.69762 21382.053


Results The cost for one day at

these temperatures is: $0.33

The optimal day time temperature is: 51 Degrees F

The total running time per day is: 97 Minutes

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Number of peaks =29

T_Out

T_Reg

T_Room

Humidity

Jan 22nd


Results The cost for one day at

these temperatures is: $0.13



Jan 28th

Number of peaks =51

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

T_Out

T_Reg

T_Room

Humidity


Results

The cost for one day at these temperatures is: $0.18



Jan 29th

Number of peaks =59

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

T_Out

T_Reg

T_Room

Humidity


ResultsNumber of peaks =33

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

T_Out

T_Reg

T_Room

Humidity

• The cost for one day at these temperatures is: $0.24

• The optimal day time temperature is: 48 Degrees F

• The total running time per day is: 71 Minutes

Feb 3rd


Results




Number of peaks =48

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25

T_Out

T_Reg

T_Room

Humidity

Feb 4th


Results




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Number of peaks=57

T_Out

T_Reg

T_Room

Humidity

Feb 5th


Results




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Number of peaks=50

T_Out

T_Reg

T_Room

Humidity

Feb 6th


Multi-Vari Effect of degree days on energy used Heat leaks from the house

Thermal survey around the windows Window pane inside and outside temperatures Wall inside temp of outside walls

Literature survey on set-back temperature Furnace specifications – Energy output BTU/hr

Analyze


Setback Temperature Faster recovery time systems will have more

savings with setback Larger AC units will have shorter on times but will

remove less humidity Effect of setback is negligible if outside temp is >

4 C 8 hr setback period will save 1% energy per

degree setback

Analyze


APPENDIX


Therm, BTU, Joule & Calorie A BTU (British Thermal Unit) is the amount of heat

necessary to raise one pound of water by 1 degree Farenheit (F). 1 British Thermal Unit (BTU) = 1055 J 1 BTU = 252 cal = 1.055 kJ 1 Quad = 1015 BTU (World energy usage is about 300

Quads/year, US is about 100 Quads/year in 1996.) 1 therm = 100,000 BTU 1,000 kWh = 3.41 million BTU

1 calorie of heat is the amount needed to raise 1 gram of water 1 degree Centigrade. 1 calorie (cal) = 4.184 J

(The Calories in food ratings are actually kilocalories.)


Natural Gas Energy content 1030 BTU / Cubic Foot Pounds of CO2 per billion BTU of energy:

Coal 208,000 poundsOil 164,000 poundsNatural Gas 117,000 pounds Ratios of CO2 pollution:

Oil / Natural Gas = 1.40Coal / Natural Gas = 1.78

Pounds of CO2 per 1,000 kWh, at 100% efficiency:Coal 709 poundsOil 559 poundsNatural Gas 399 pounds


Humidity Sensor HIH4000 Datasheet

This is a Header 43

Parallax - Sensor - Humidity - HIH 4000.pdf


No Power to LM34



No Power to LM34



5V to LM34 – No Capacitor



5V to LM34 & 33uF Capacitor



Freq Domain – 5V & 33uF



5V No Cap



5V No Cap


CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALME 414 – 6S Approach 51


Bode Plot – Excel Version


-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

Mag

nitu

de (d

B)

101

102

103

104

105

106

107

-90

-45

0

Phas

e (d

eg)

Bode Diagram

Frequency (rad/sec)

370

rad/

s –

59 H

z

121k rad/sec

370

rad/

s –

59 H

z


Bode Plot – Excel Version

This is a Header 53

Cut-Off Freq370 rad/s

(59 Hz)

Cut-Off Freq

121k rad/s(19.4 kHz)



Reduce Monthly Natural Gas Consumption

Documents