Transcript
Scenario Analysis
Subject: Business Research & Methodology Professor in Charge: Seoksoo Kim Team Members(6): International Trade & Commerce - Seokhyun shin/Seokyoon Jung /Jungwon Byun International Logistics & Port Management - Jongjoo Kim/ Insoo Kim International Cooperation - Taeeun Kim
Case Studies: Case 1-10 (pp. 1638~654) based on Business Research Methods by William G. Zikmund
DefinitionScenario analysis is a process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes(scenarios). The analysis is designed to allow improved decisiondecisionmaking by allowing complete consideration of outcomes and their implications.
PurposeIn order to exploit opportunities and minimize threats that exist in the external environment, companies must be able to analyze their internal strengths and weaknesses and implement strategies based on their particular resources, capabilities and core competencies.
Purpose
A Scenario is an internally consistent depiction of a possible future state of an economy or industry or technology Scenario analysis is a structured way of developing multiple scenarios Initial scenarios are conducted at high levels, subsequent scenarios may be at the firm level
Process
Identify Uncertainties Determine casual factors Make range of plausible assumptions Combine assumptions into scenarios Analyze industry behaviour under each scenario Determine strengths/weaknesses under each scenario Predict competitor behaviour
Scenario 1 : Case 1 & 2
[The Atlanta Braves/ Harvard Cooperative Society]
Context AnalysisThe Atlanta Braves: Turner Field Building a newly-designed 21st Century form newlyof Baseball Stadium Spectators vs. Participants CustomerCustomer-oriented developmento o o o o
Bleachers are closer to the pitch. Enhanced supplementary facilities. RealReal-time broadcasting system. PricePrice-setting for the non-use seats(skyline seat) nonInteractive game equipment
Context AnalysisHarvard Cooperative Society New decision support system is required. Was the Harvard Square store attracting steady traffic? Were the college students buying enough books and supplies for the Coop to make a profit?
Primary Activities & other Support ActivitiesThe Atlanta Braves Key marketing objectives: New generation of baseball fans Diversify fans activities at every turn. Fan s becoming part of what s happening at Turner Field after the minute a fan s ticket is torn.
Primary Activities & other Support ActivitiesHarvard Cooperative Society Key objectives: New era needs New System for a decision-maker decisionDecision Support System(Murphy s PC)
Up-to-theUp-to-the-minute, easy-to-read electronic easy-toreports on sales Electronic inventory check-up checkReport on gross margins for any product or suppliers
Scenarios designed for further questioningThe Atlanta Braves Marketing Mix Recommended Business Research Methods Role of Business Research Advantages of Decision support System
Marketing MixMcCarthy identified the four P's of the marketing mix (40 years ago!) Product: Defines the characteristics of your product or service that meets the needs of your customers.
Price:
Decide on a pricing strategy - do not let it just happen! Even if you decide not to charge for a service (a loss leader), you must realise that this is a conscious decision and forms part of the pricing strategy.
Promotion:
This includes all the weapons in the marketing armoury advertising, selling, sales promotions, Public Relations, etc.
Some of the revolutions in marketing have come about by changing this P. Think of telephone insurance and the (or route of internet! A bit of lateral thinking here might reap rewards for distribution): your business.
Place
Recommended Business Research Methods
Secondary data gathering Mall intercept Interview Personal Interview Internet Survey
Role of Business Research
Identifying problems or opportunities Diagnosing and assessing problems or opportunities Selecting and implementing a course of action Evaluating the course of action
Advantages of Decision support SystemSmall Business Ex) UPC(Universal Product Code), Till System 1. Easy to access to the data 2. Easy to transform data into valid information 3. Easy to check-up inventory Capable of facilitating CRM (Customer Relationship Management)
Major Corporation
Transnational Global Information System Corporation/Organization
Scenario 2 : Case 3 & 9
[Tulsas Central Business District vs. New Williams Center Complex]
Context AnalysisRevitalization of Tulsa s Central Business District 1) 2) 3) 4) The Quantity and Nature of the Downtown Population Commercial Enterprise(and Vacancy) Inventory Business s Opinions about the CBD Shoppers Opinions about CBD
Context AnalysisA survey of the Central Business District employers and employeeso o o
Characteristics Work habits Attitudes
Context AnalysisA Survey of Commercial Establishments and Off-street parking facilities Offo o o
Types Sizes Location
Context AnalysisA Survey of Commercial vacancieso o
Concentrating on ground-floor space groundConsideration given to multi-storey multicommercial building
Context AnalysisAn On-the street Sample Survey of Onshopping attitudes and preferenceso
Addressing attitudes toward working and living downtown
Business SituationsThe Williams Company Strength : Abundant Capital Weakness : Lack in information about new businesso o o
Internal resources Current Image of the company CasualCasual-user market information
Scenarios designed for further questioningCritical Points on the Chamber of Commerce s Research Proposal NewlyNewly-suggested research proposal Research Model (Case 9: Mail Survey of CEO)
Critical Points on the Chamber of Commerces Research Proposal
Static Population vs. Dynamic flow of Population External networking of CBD Target Users of New Williams Center Complex : Business Runner/Shopper/ Resident
NewlyNewly-suggested research proposala)
Secondary Data Study
Literature Studies Benchmarking
NewlyNewly-suggested research proposalb)
Survey
Mall Intercept Personal Interview Telephone Interview Mail Survey Internet Survey Panel Study
NewlyNewly-suggested research proposal
c)
Pilot Studyo
Focus Group Interview
Research Model (Case 9: Mail Survey of CEO)The Chamber of Commerce in TulsaA.
B.
Sample Selection A systematic random sampling of firms in the second stratum was from Polk s City of Tulsa Directory( Reserve directory) Rate of survey returned : 61%
Research Model (Case 9: Mail Survey of CEO)The Chamber of Commerce in TulsaC.
Problemso o
Is collecting information of mail survey via CEO enough or valid? Mail survey can be cost-efficient , geographically costflexible, and convenient for respondents, and easy to gather generalized ideas on given task, however, it doesn t seem appropriate for the William Company considering its strength and longlong-term implementation plan.
Scenario 3 : Case 4
[Hamilton Power Tools]
Context AnalysisMost Sales are to Professionals Managements Awareness During the late 1970s and early 1980,o o o o
Energy crisis Movement from urban and suburban areas to exurban areas Second homes in countryside Do-itDo-it-yourself trend
Necessity of target market expansion for the future growth Industrial user-based market to casual user(consumer)-oriented useruser(consumer)market
Context Analysis
Necessity of target market expansion for the future growth Industrial user-based market to casual useruser(consumer)user(consumer)-oriented market
Business Situations and Primary ActivitiesStrengths: Strengths: Market share in the industrial professionals and product technology are high. Weaknesses: Weaknesses: No preparation for the changing market trend and lack in the information on the casual-user market. casual-
Business Situations and Primary ActivitiesMotivational Research suggested by Consumer Metrics of Chicago: TAT Designed in use of consumer studies to uncover people s buying motives.o
o
Means of gaining the flavour of the language people use in talking about chain saws Source of new ideas for copyright
Business Situations and Primary ActivitiesTAT Study Procedure for casual users toward chain saws Exhibit A : The cost of doing the job, and the ease and speed of using chain sawo o o
Using a hand saw Hiring s tree surgeon Renting or borrowing a chain saw
TAT Study Procedure for casual users toward chain sawsExhibit B : How to use chain saw Price related to Safetyo o o o o o o o o o o
Ease of handling Length of blade Which was the best brand Whether it had direct drive Whether it had gas protector SelfSelf-lubrication The warranty (guarantee) Ease of Controls Specifications Availability of credits Possibility of mixing oil and gas
TAT Study Procedure for casual users toward chain sawsExhibit C : The fear of using chain saw except a DIY man Exhibit D : The value of purchasing chain saw
Scenarios designed for further questioningCritical Points on TAT performed by Consumer Metrics of Chicago Recommendations to Campagna concerning the Casual-user chain Casualsaw market
Critical Points on TAT performed by Consumer Metrics of ChicagoDoes this meet the need of Hamilton Power Tools inquiry?o
o
It doesn t seem relevant to greater profitprofitmaking in the chain saw division Need to be revised in pictures
Critical Points on TAT performed by Consumer Metrics of ChicagoHamilton seems targeting the home owned male users market only. Purchasing vs. Rentingo
The method seems invalid and unreliable to increase the sales of chain saws in casual-user casualmarket. Since most of users of chain saws consider not only the usability, but the cost. When you can rent out the chain saw for temporal use, why bother purchasing one.
Recommendations to Campagna for the Casual-user chain saw Casualmarket1)
2) 3) 4)
Contribute to the physical creation of the product or service and its sale Transfer to the buyer Enhance after-sale service afterResearch the competitor in the target market
Scenario 4 : Case5
[Middlemist Precision Tool Company]
Context AnalysisValidity and Reliability of the newlynewlydeveloped radial arm saw (using T square and trial cuts) invented by Dennis Middlemist in the market. The market potentialo
o
How many arm saws there in the US and patent issue How many prospective customers there might be for his invention
Scenarios designed for further questioningResearch existing similar productso o
Secondary Data Patent Record
Prospective Customers Researcho o o
Focus Group Experimental Survey(Testing) Secondary Data collected via Internet
Prospective Customers Research
What is Radial arm saw and what is the primary concern of the customer in using it?http://www.sawdustmaking.com/
Research example:http://www.sustain.ubc.ca/
Research on existing goodshttp://woodbutcher.net/toolpix.htm
Example of the Market research planning http://www.concept.ntnu.no/
Scenario 5 : Case 6
[EZPass]
Business researcher vs. Task forceBusiness researcher: researcher: Assessing commuters demand for the service is important. Task force : The principal role is to investigate commuter s preferences for how the service should be configurated ideally.
Recommended Research designTrafficTraffic-concentrated area Interview Telephone Interview Mail survey Internet Survey
o o o o
Scenario 6 : Case 7
[Todays Man]
Hypnotic treatment in Business ResearchAdvantages : It can help to minimize or reduceo o o
Nonresponse bias Acquiescence bias Social desirability bias
Disadvantages :o
Ethical argumentations.
Additional research recommended
Survey Questionnaire design with 3rd3rdperson technique RoleRole-play: ex) Psycho drama rather than hypnotism or mesmerism
Scenario 7 : Case 8
[Coral Gables, Florida]
Mock jury and its evaluationDemographics and Values of evidence presentation at bar PercepTraco
o
A handled device that mock jurors use to gauge their positive Negative responses to facts presented in a trial.
The effectiveness of jury research
Easy to test Voodoo legistigation
Survey errors
Sample selection error Response bias Auspices bias
Scenario 8 : Case 10
[The Greeting Card Study]
Evaluation of the covering letterCompare it with the Exhibit 10.2 : Examples of Cover Letter for Household Surveyo o o o o
o o o o o o o
Official letterhead Date mailed Inside address in matching type What study is about; its social usefulness Why recipient is important (and if needed, who should complete the questionnaire) Promise of confidentiality; explanation of identification number Usefulness of study Token reward for participation What to do if questions arise Appreciation Pressed blue ballpoint signature Title
Possible survey error
Nonresponse bias Deliberate falsification
Conclusion
Interactive Scenario Analysis
Case Study and Scenario Analysis Presenter and Audience Interaction
The End
Any Questions?
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