Transcript
PJEnergyNER300Unit
FinancialAnalysisofInnovativeEnergyTechnologies
EricaBertaTrainee
September2013
Scopeoftheresearchandmethodsapplied
• CompileadatabasecollectingrelevantcostsandrevenuesofinnovativeRENandCCSprojects
• CalculateLCOE,IRR,CostofstoringCO2,evaluatefuturesavingspotential
• Runasensitivityanalysisoninputcosts,endproductpricesandcapacityfactors
24/09/2013 FinancialAnalysisof innovative EnergyProjects 2
ProjectsOverview
• Bioenergy:3newprojects+5oldprojects- Sensitivityonfeedstockcosts,endproductprices- Doublecountingrule
• Wind:3newprojects+4oldprojects- Sensitivityonloadfactor
• CSP:3newprojects+1oldproject-SensitivityonCAPEX,irradiationvalues
• Ocean:4newprojects- Sensitivityonloadfactor,CAPEX
• CCS:1newproject
324/09/2013 FinancialAnalysisof innovative EnergyProjects
BioenergyAnalysis
1.05 1.010.64
1.36 1.36
0.9
23% 26% 32%
BIODIESELEUNYMEXARGUSRMEFOBRdam
BIODIESELEUFAMEOARGUSFOBRdam
EUETHANOLNEWFOBT2
DOUBLECOUNTINGMECHANISM
First genprice
Second genprice
Price diff.
424/09/2013 FinancialAnalysisof innovative EnergyProjects
BioenergyAnalysis
5
1.02
1.401.26
1.101.25
1.32
1.88
0.61
0.95
1.14
0.67
0.89
1.63
0.48
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
ETHANOL 1 ETHANOL 2 METHANOL 1 METHANOL 2 BIODIESEL1 BIODIESEL2 BIODIESEL3 PYROLYSISOIL1
EUR/l
LCOEOFALLBIOENERGYPROJECTSINEUR/lbiodieseleq.
LCOE EUR/leq NETLCOE EUR/leq 1stGENERATIONBIODIESELETHANOL T2FOB 2NDGENERATIONBIODIESEL 2NDGENERATIONETBEFUELOIL GASOLINE EU
EUR/lgasolineeq. EUR/lbiodiesel eq. EUR/ldieseleq.
24/09/2013 FinancialAnalysisof innovative EnergyProjects
WindAnalysis
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
WIND1SE WIND2AT WIND3DE WIND4BE WIND5BE WIND6PT WIND7FR
EUR/MWh
LCOO&M LCOInvestment EUR/MWh
OffshoreOnshore VAWT
Onshore Benchmark
Offshore Benchmark95
130
225
140
230
430
80
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%WIND4 CAPEX
Technicalcontingencies
DevelopmentCosts
Siteinfrastructure
Capitalequipment 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
WIND6CAPEXBREAKDOWN
DevelopmentCosts
Siteinfrastructure
Capitalequipment
4% 3% 4%
7%4%
6%
3%
WIND1SE
WIND2AT
WIND3DE
WIND4BE
WIND5BE
WIND6PT
WIND7FR
O&Mcost
6
CSPAnalysis
56%
90%78%
61%
16%
15%
24%19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
CSP1 CSP2 CSP3 CSP4
CAPEXBREAKDOWNIN%
Installation andCommissioning
DevelopmentCosts
SiteInfrastructure
CapitalEquipment
11%
5%
10%
28%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
CSP1 CSP2 CSP3 CSP4
EUR/MWh
LCOEBREAKDOWN JRCVALUES
LCOEInvestment LCOEO&M LCOEFUEL Difference from basecase
310
260
390
305
Stirling
Benchmark CSP
Solar Tower
724/09/2013 FinancialAnalysisof innovative EnergyProjects
OceanAnalysis
547
396
301 291
30
121
7548
21
12
80
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
OTEC1FR WAVE 2IE TIDAL3UK TIDAL4UK
EUR/MWh
LCOEWITH5%DISCOUNTRATE
Investment O&Mcosts Insurance cost
530460
340
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
OTEC1FR WAVE2IE TIDAL3UK TIDAL4UK
CAPEX COSTBREAKDOWN OCEANENERGY:RELATIVEVALUES
Contingencies Intangible Assets
Installation andCommissioning Development Costs
CapitalEquipment
8
600
24/09/2013 FinancialAnalysisof innovative EnergyProjects
9
SensitivityAnalysis
• LCOEmostreactivetocapacityfactor changes(Wind,Ocean,CSP)
• LowersensitivityforCAPEXchanges
• Bioenergy:moresensitivitytoendproductpricesthantofeedstockcosts
24/09/2013 FinancialAnalysisof innovative EnergyProjects
CCSAnalysis
58
26
47
-16
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
EUR/MWh
POST 4UK:Levelised costsofgreenproductionwith CCSEUR/MWh
Avoided carbon costs
Storage
Transport
Capture
BasePlantw/oCO2costs
Storagecosts:335EUR/tCO2LCOE:120EUR/MWhT&Stariffof120EUR/tCO2stored
1024/09/2013 FinancialAnalysisof innovative EnergyProjects
149
66
120
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
EUR/tCO2
LevelisedCO2storagecostsEUR/tCO2
Baseplant Capture Storage
ComparisonwiththeotherCCSprojects
0
50
100
150
200
250
CCSPOST 1(Pol)
CCSPOST 2(Ita)
CCSPOST 3(UK)
CCSPOST 4(UK)
CCSPRE(UK)
CCSOXY(UK)
CCSLCOEEUR/MWhegreen
Baseplant(w/oCO2costs) CaptureTransport StorageAvoidedhydrocarboncosts
120 115110
175210
120
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
CCSPOST1(Pol)
CCSPOST2(Ita)
CCSPOST3(UK)
CCSPOST4(UK)
CCSOXY(UK)
CCSIndustrial
(NL)
CCSPRE(UK)
CostofStoringCO2(EUR/tCO2)
Baseplant Capture Transport Storage
110 110140
165170
430
335
CCSAnalysis
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CO2abatementcurveforCCSandinnovativeRENtechnologies
12
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
EUR/TCO2
OVERALLCO2AVOIDANCECOST
CCS:100-170
WIND:180-300
2° GEN.BIOFUELS:400-600CSP:600-800
OCEAN: >1000
24/09/2013 FinancialAnalysisof innovative EnergyProjects
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