Presentation Catching A Falling Star: Will U.S. …cdn.ihs.com/.../Devin-Lindsay-Presentation-English.pdfPresentation ihs.com IHS AUTOMOTIVE Catching A Falling Star: Will U.S. Automakers

Presentation

ihs.com

IHS AUTOMOTIVE

Catching A Falling Star: Will U.S. Automakers

Keep xEVs Powered In A Low-Oil Price

Environment

IHS Automotive Conference – Tokyo | March 5, 2015

Devin Lindsay, Principal Analyst - North America Powertrain,

+1 248 465 2811, devin.lindsay@ihs.com

Contents

TNEMNGILA FO SRATS XIS

SUTATS TEKRAM TNERRUC – VEX

emuloV

?ECIRP LIO RO NOITALSIGEL :RATS TSETHGIRB

tsacerof VEx no tcapmI – EFAC

?revoM tekraM ro gnimaerD ainrofilaC – etadnaM VEZ

TSACEROF VEX MEO POT

SRETPODA YLRAE TSAP GNIVOM – SREMOTSUC VEX EHT ERA OHW

CONCLUSION

Final Highlights

IHS Automotive Conference | Spring 2015

Which Way To Go?

Photo By: Devin Lindsay

Products

Battery evolution Infrastructure

Government /

incentives Oil prices

Consumer

Six Stars of Alignment

Photo By: Devin Lindsay

Photos by: Devin Lindsay 4

Falling Star Creating Black Hole? B

Oil Prices

Source: IHS Connect

Contents

emuloV

CONCLUSION

Final Highlights

North America vs. Global Market Outlook – Production

Forecast

Production Powertrain Forecast January 2015

Europe Greater China Japan/Korea North America South Asia

Europe Greater China Japan/Korea North America South America

North America vs. Global Market Outlook – Production

Forecast

Europe Greater China Japan/Korea North America South Asia

Global Outlook – Production-Based Powertrain Forecast

Percent Share

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Electric

Fuel Cell

Hybrid-Full

Hybrid-Mild

ICE:Stop/Start

North American Outlook – Production-Based Powertrain

Forecast Percent Share

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Electric

Fuel Cell

Hybrid-Full

Hybrid-Mild

ICE:Stop/Start

Contents

emuloV

CONCLUSION

Final Highlights

Could ZEV Be Delayed Or Adjusted & What About

IHS Automotive Spring Conference / March 2015

U.S. CAFE Fuel Economy Status and Targets – Car Fleet

U.S. CAFE Fuel Economy Status and Targets – Truck

Benefits of Advanced Clean Cars Program?

Fight Smog

75 percent reduction in smog-forming emissions from new vehicles by 2025

(compared to 2014 levels)

Create Jobs

additional 21,000 jobs in California in 2025, rising to 37,000 in 2030

Fight Climate Change

Greenhouse gas emissions from new cars cut 34 percent from 2016 levels. By 2025,

greenhouse gases will be reduced by 52 million tons, the equivalent of taking 10 million

cars off

Deliver Next-Generation Cars

ZEVs or PHEVs will account for one in seven new cars sold in California in 2025

>1.4 million zero-emission and plug-in hybrid vehicles will be on the road in California by

Consumer Savings

California drivers will save $5 billion in operating costs in 2025, and $10

billion by 2030

Other Intermediate Vehicle Manufacturers

Large Vehicle Manufacturers

<20,000 Vehicles

Transitioning LVMs (2016-2018)

OEMs – Heavyweights Vs. Middle Weight Champs

16 ARB: September 2013

Travel Provision or "Section 177 States"

Section 177 of the federal Clean Air Act allows other states to adopt California motor vehicle

emission standards including the ZEV regulation

Fuel cell vehicles: Travel provision allowed until sufficient complimentary policies established in

S177 states

ZEVs TZEVs

California Zero Emission Vehicle Credit Balances

as of September 2014

Source: http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/zevcredits/2013zevcredits.htm

Contents

emuloV

CONCLUSION

Final Highlights

• 200 Mile BEV will rival

GM Bolt

• Strong FHEV focus

• FHEV F150 pick-up

truck late 2018 on 3.5L

EcoBoost

Fusion C-Hybrid Escape FusionPHEV

F-150SuperCrew

Top Volume By 2021

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Hybrid-Full

Fuel Cell

Electric

General Motors

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Hybrid-Mild

Hybrid-Full

Fuel Cell

Electric

EUNDER…

• Significant PHEV emphasis

• Does the 200 mile range Bolt set

a new standard?

• eAssist continues to lose power

Estimated Household Income Personal Registrations:

Dec 2014 YTD*

Fiat-Chrysler

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Hybrid-Mild

Hybrid-Full

Electric

• Possible late-launch next-gen Ram 1500 48V

• Significanttub…elbissopemulovVEHMV84

is there a risk?

• PHEV minivan still planned so will Honda and

Toyota wait or compete?

48V Systems*

100% 77%

47% 46% 41% 39%

0% 23%

53% 54% 59% 61%

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Non-Hybrid Applications Hybrid Applications

*Europe Only – 2nd Quarter 2014

German OEMs (BMW, Daimler, VW)

• Significant 48V MHEV volume possible

starting with Audi brand

• Aggressive roll-out of PHEVs

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Hybrid-Mild

Hybrid-Full

Electric

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Hybrid-Mild

Hybrid-Full

Photo Taken By: Devin Lindsay

• Dedicated BEV returning

• E-REV will rival Chevy Volt

• More FHEVs from Acura brand?

Hyundai/Kia

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Hybrid-Full

Electric

• Very competitive xEV models

• Soon following similar pattern if special

“green”snoitarugifnocsuoiravniledom

• Fuel cell Tucson improves score on ZEV

scoreboard

Nissan

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Hybrid-Mild

Electric

Dec 2014 YTD* Photo Taken By: Devin Lindsay

• Commitment to

• Lack of SUV

penetration in

market

• Very positive

ZEV position

EUNDER…

Toyota

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Hybrid-Full

Electric

• Mirai Fuel Cell

• Commitment to BEVs?

• Success of the Prius

Model 3 Model 3CUV

Model 3Roadster

Model S Model X

2015 2021

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

EUNDER…

Dec 2014 YTD*

• Shows that competition is

really good for the

marketplace

• Model S proves that EVs are

not just for A & B Segment

vehicles

• Will production delays effect

long-term viability?

Tesla and Upcoming Competition

- 5 10 15 20 25

Model S

918 Spyder

Thousands

$ 845,000 (USD)

$ 135,700 (USD)

$ 150,000 (USD – estimated)

$ 70,000 (USD)

APSS New Scenario Assumptions – Rivalry

Timeline

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Limited PHEV/BEV

sales due to new

technology

production ramp-up

Variety of

government

stimulus aimed at

promoting

electrified vehicle

solutions

Ongoing

vehicle/

powertrain

downsizing

Move towards

a vehicular

CO2 linked

taxation

system in

many markets

PHEV/BEV

become

economically

competitive with

ICE vehicles

Rising new ICE

vehicle retail

prices due to

efficiency

standards

Other disruptive

technologies such as

fully autonomous

vehicles emerge;

enabling further CO2

emission reductions

Potential for new

standards and

procedures

concerning vehicle

homologation and

crash test processes

Contents

emuloV

CONCLUSION

Final Highlights

State Consistency?

Polk Insights, February 2015

United States: xEV* Age Breakdown Personal

Registrations: 2012 vs. 2013

18-24 YRSOLD

25-34 YRSOLD

35-44 YRSOLD

45-54 YRSOLD

55-64 YRSOLD

65-74 YRSOLD

75+ YRSOLD

% Change

*MHEV/FHEV/PHEV

Polk Insights, January 2015

18-24 YRSOLD

25-34 YRSOLD

35-44 YRSOLD

45-54 YRSOLD

55-64 YRSOLD

65-74 YRSOLD

75+ YRSOLD

% Change

United States: Electric Vehicle – Consumers Age

Breakdown Personal Registrations: 2012 vs. 2013*

% Change

United States: Consumers Estimated Household Income

Personal Registrations: 2012 vs. 2013*

Loyalty Percentage – Select Brands By Ethnicity

VOLT LEAF MODEL S PRIUS

African-Americans

EasternEuropean

Hispanic

MiddleEastern

WesternEuropean

Loyalty Insights, February 2015

Contents

emuloV

CONCLUSION

Final Highlights

Competing Conflicts

Infrastructure – More

Charging Stations Air Quality

Road Funding Lower Emission

Vehicles Vehicle Choice

Reduced Fuel Cost

New Technology New Amenities

Better Roads

Infrastructure – Charge

Everywhere

Vehicle Cost Technology Cost

CO2 HP

PRESENTATION NAME / MONTH 2014

Key Takeaways • Electrified vehicles are never sustained

directly by oil prices, but its velocity is

controlled by oil price

• Legislation determines technology

winners and losers

• Automakers are beginning to choose its

technology of choice to meet CAFE and

ZEV regulations

• xEVs are still very immature in the

market with many unreached consumers

and low-penetration in most states.

IHS Customer Care:

• Americas: +1 800 IHS CARE (+1 800 447 2273); CustomerCare@ihs.com

• Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) 1344 328 300; Customer.Support@ihs.com

• Asia and the Pacific Rim: +604 291 3600; SupportAPAC@ihs.com

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Catching A Falling Star: Will U.S. Automakers Keep xEVs

Powered In A Low-Oil Price Environment

Devin Lindsay

Principal Analyst - North America Powertrain

IHS Automotive

Presentation Catching A Falling Star: Will U.S. …cdn.ihs.com/.../Devin-Lindsay-Presentation-English.pdfPresentation ihs.com IHS AUTOMOTIVE Catching A Falling Star: Will U.S. Automakers

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