Presentation Catching A Falling Star: Will U.S. …cdn.ihs.com/.../Devin-Lindsay-Presentation-English.pdfPresentation ihs.com IHS AUTOMOTIVE Catching A Falling Star: Will U.S. Automakers

© 2015 IHS

Presentation

ihs.com

IHS AUTOMOTIVE

Catching A Falling Star: Will U.S. Automakers

Keep xEVs Powered In A Low-Oil Price

Environment

IHS Automotive Conference – Tokyo | March 5, 2015

Devin Lindsay, Principal Analyst - North America Powertrain,

+1 248 465 2811, [email protected]

Contents

© 2015 IHS

ORTNI

TNEMNGILA FO SRATS XIS

SUTATS TEKRAM TNERRUC – VEX

emuloV

?ECIRP LIO RO NOITALSIGEL :RATS TSETHGIRB

tsacerof VEx no tcapmI – EFAC

?revoM tekraM ro gnimaerD ainrofilaC – etadnaM VEZ

TSACEROF VEX MEO POT

SRETPODA YLRAE TSAP GNIVOM – SREMOTSUC VEX EHT ERA OHW

CONCLUSION

Final Highlights

2

IHS Automotive Conference | Spring 2015

© 2015 IHS

Which Way To Go?

3


© 2015 IHS

Photo By: Devin Lindsay


Products

Battery evolution Infrastructure

Government /

incentives Oil prices

Consumer

Six Stars of Alignment


Photos by: Devin Lindsay 4


© 2015 IHS

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

5

Falling Star Creating Black Hole? B

ren

t o

il p

rice

($/b

arr

el)

Oil Prices

Source: IHS Connect

Contents

© 2015 IHS

ORTNI



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CONCLUSION

Final Highlights

6


© 2014 IHS

North America vs. Global Market Outlook – Production

Forecast

7

BEV


Production Powertrain Forecast January 2015

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Europe Greater China Japan/Korea North America South Asia

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

2015

2020

2025

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Europe Greater China Japan/Korea North America South America

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

2015

2020

2025

PHEV

© 2014 IHS

North America vs. Global Market Outlook – Production

Forecast

8



0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3


Mil

lio

ns

2015

2020

2025

FHEV

0

1

2

3

4

5


Mil

lio

ns

2015

2020

2025

MHEV

© 2015 IHS

Global Outlook – Production-Based Powertrain Forecast

Percent Share

9



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Electric

Fuel Cell

Hybrid-Full

PHEV

Hybrid-Mild

ICE

ICE:Stop/Start

© 2015 IHS

North American Outlook – Production-Based Powertrain

Forecast Percent Share

10



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Electric

Fuel Cell

Hybrid-Full

PHEV

Hybrid-Mild

ICE

ICE:Stop/Start

Contents

© 2015 IHS

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CONCLUSION

Final Highlights

11


© 2015 IHS

Could ZEV Be Delayed Or Adjusted & What About

CAFE?

12

IHS Automotive Spring Conference / March 2015

© 2015 IHS

U.S. CAFE Fuel Economy Status and Targets – Car Fleet

13


© 2015 IHS

U.S. CAFE Fuel Economy Status and Targets – Truck

Fleet

14


© 2015 IHS

Benefits of Advanced Clean Cars Program?

15


Fight Smog

75 percent reduction in smog-forming emissions from new vehicles by 2025

(compared to 2014 levels)

Create Jobs

additional 21,000 jobs in California in 2025, rising to 37,000 in 2030

Fight Climate Change

Greenhouse gas emissions from new cars cut 34 percent from 2016 levels. By 2025,

greenhouse gases will be reduced by 52 million tons, the equivalent of taking 10 million

cars off

Deliver Next-Generation Cars

ZEVs or PHEVs will account for one in seven new cars sold in California in 2025

>1.4 million zero-emission and plug-in hybrid vehicles will be on the road in California by

2025.

Consumer Savings

California drivers will save $5 billion in operating costs in 2025, and $10

billion by 2030

© 2015 IHS

Other Intermediate Vehicle Manufacturers

Large Vehicle Manufacturers

<20,000 Vehicles

Transitioning LVMs (2016-2018)

OEMs – Heavyweights Vs. Middle Weight Champs

16 ARB: September 2013

© 2015 IHS

Travel Provision or "Section 177 States"

17

Section 177 of the federal Clean Air Act allows other states to adopt California motor vehicle

emission standards including the ZEV regulation

Fuel cell vehicles: Travel provision allowed until sufficient complimentary policies established in

S177 states

© 2015 IHS

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

Th

ou

san

ds

ZEVs TZEVs

18


California Zero Emission Vehicle Credit Balances

as of September 2014

Source: http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/zevcredits/2013zevcredits.htm

Contents

© 2015 IHS

ORTNI



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CONCLUSION

Final Highlights

19


© 2015 IHS 20


Ford

• 200 Mile BEV will rival

GM Bolt

• Strong FHEV focus

• FHEV F150 pick-up

truck late 2018 on 3.5L

EcoBoost

-

100

200

300

400

500

Fusion C-Hybrid Escape FusionPHEV

F-150SuperCrew

Th

ou

san

ds

Top Volume By 2021

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

PHEV

Hybrid-Full

Fuel Cell

Electric

© 2015 IHS 21


General Motors

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Hybrid-Mild

PHEV

Hybrid-Full

Fuel Cell

Electric

0%

10%

20%

30%

INC

OM

EUNDER…

$15

,000

-$

19

,999

$20

,000

-$

29

,999

$30

,000

-$

39

,999

$40

,000

-$

49

,999

$50

,000

-$

74

,999

$75

,000

-$

99

,999

$10

0,0

00

-$

12

4,9

99

$12

5,0

00

-$

14

9,9

99

$15

0,0

00

AN

D O

VE

R

• Significant PHEV emphasis

• Does the 200 mile range Bolt set

a new standard?

• eAssist continues to lose power

Estimated Household Income Personal Registrations:

Dec 2014 YTD*

© 2015 IHS 22


Fiat-Chrysler

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Hybrid-Mild

PHEV

Hybrid-Full

Electric

• Possible late-launch next-gen Ram 1500 48V

MHEV

• Significanttub…elbissopemulovVEHMV84

is there a risk?

• PHEV minivan still planned so will Honda and

Toyota wait or compete?

© 2015 IHS

48V Systems*

23


100% 77%

47% 46% 41% 39%

0% 23%

53% 54% 59% 61%

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Non-Hybrid Applications Hybrid Applications

*Europe Only – 2nd Quarter 2014

© 2015 IHS 24


German OEMs (BMW, Daimler, VW)

• Significant 48V MHEV volume possible

starting with Audi brand

• Aggressive roll-out of PHEVs

0

50

100

150

200

250

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Hybrid-Mild

PHEV

Hybrid-Full

Electric

© 2015 IHS 25


Honda

0

50

100

150

200

250

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Hybrid-Mild

Hybrid-Full

Photo Taken By: Devin Lindsay

• Dedicated BEV returning

• E-REV will rival Chevy Volt

• More FHEVs from Acura brand?

© 2015 IHS 26


Hyundai/Kia

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

PHEV

Hybrid-Full

Electric


• Very competitive xEV models

• Soon following similar pattern if special

“green”snoitarugifnocsuoiravniledom

• Fuel cell Tucson improves score on ZEV

scoreboard

© 2015 IHS 27


Nissan

0

50

100

150

200

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Hybrid-Mild

Electric


Dec 2014 YTD* Photo Taken By: Devin Lindsay

• Commitment to

EVs

• Lack of SUV

penetration in

market

• Very positive

ZEV position

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

INC

OM

EUNDER…

$1

5,0

00

-$

19

,99

9

$2

0,0

00

-$

29

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9

$3

0,0

00

-$

39

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9

$4

0,0

00

-$

49

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9

$5

0,0

00

-$

74

,99

9

$7

5,0

00

-$

99

,99

9

$1

00

,00

0 -

$1

24

,99

9

$1

25

,00

0 -

$1

49

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9

$1

50

,00

0 A

ND

OV

ER

© 2015 IHS 28


Toyota

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Th

ou

san

ds

PHEV

Hybrid-Full

Electric


• Mirai Fuel Cell

• Commitment to BEVs?

• Success of the Prius

© 2015 IHS 29


Tesla

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Model 3 Model 3CUV

Model 3Roadster

Model S Model X

Th

ou

san

ds

2015 2021

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

INC

OM

EUNDER…

$15

,000

-$

19

,999

$20

,000

-$

29

,999

$30

,000

-$

39

,999

$40

,000

-$

49

,999

$50

,000

-$

74

,999

$75

,000

-$

99

,999

$10

0,0

00

-$

12

4,9

99

$12

5,0

00

-$

14

9,9

99

$15

0,0

00

AN

D O

VE

R


Dec 2014 YTD*

• Shows that competition is

really good for the

marketplace

• Model S proves that EVs are

not just for A & B Segment

vehicles

• Will production delays effect

long-term viability?

© 2015 IHS Photo Source: Devin Lindsay 30


Tesla and Upcoming Competition

- 5 10 15 20 25

Model S

R8

NSX

Supra

918 Spyder

i8

Thousands

2019

2017

2015

$ 845,000 (USD)

$ 135,700 (USD)

$ 150,000 (USD – estimated)

$ 70,000 (USD)

© 2015 IHS

APSS New Scenario Assumptions – Rivalry

Timeline

31

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Limited PHEV/BEV

sales due to new

technology

production ramp-up

Variety of

government

stimulus aimed at

promoting

electrified vehicle

solutions

Ongoing

vehicle/

powertrain

downsizing

wave

Move towards

a vehicular

CO2 linked

taxation

system in

many markets

PHEV/BEV

become

economically

competitive with

ICE vehicles

Rising new ICE

vehicle retail

prices due to

efficiency

standards

Other disruptive

technologies such as

fully autonomous

vehicles emerge;

enabling further CO2

emission reductions

Potential for new

standards and

procedures

concerning vehicle

homologation and

crash test processes


Contents

© 2015 IHS

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CONCLUSION

Final Highlights

32


© 2015 IHS 33


State Consistency?

Polk Insights, February 2015

© 2015 IHS

United States: xEV* Age Breakdown Personal

Registrations: 2012 vs. 2013

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

18-24 YRSOLD

25-34 YRSOLD

35-44 YRSOLD

45-54 YRSOLD

55-64 YRSOLD

65-74 YRSOLD

75+ YRSOLD

% Change

34


*MHEV/FHEV/PHEV

Polk Insights, January 2015

© 2015 IHS

-5%

45%

95%

145%

195%

245%

295%

345%

18-24 YRSOLD

25-34 YRSOLD

35-44 YRSOLD

45-54 YRSOLD

55-64 YRSOLD

65-74 YRSOLD

75+ YRSOLD

% Change

United States: Electric Vehicle – Consumers Age

Breakdown Personal Registrations: 2012 vs. 2013*

35



© 2015 IHS

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

% Change

United States: Consumers Estimated Household Income

Personal Registrations: 2012 vs. 2013*

36


0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

$1

5,0

00

-$

19

,99

9

$2

0,0

00

-$

29

,99

9

$3

0,0

00

-$

39

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9

$4

0,0

00

-$

49

,99

9

$5

0,0

00

-$

74

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9

$75,0

00 -

$99,9

99

$1

00

,00

0 -

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24

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9

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25

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0 -

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49

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9

$1

50

,00

0A

ND

OV

ER

INC

OM

EU

ND

ER

$1

5,0

00


© 2015 IHS

Loyalty Percentage – Select Brands By Ethnicity

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

VOLT LEAF MODEL S PRIUS

African-Americans

Asian

EasternEuropean

Hispanic

MiddleEastern

WesternEuropean

37


Loyalty Insights, February 2015

Contents

© 2015 IHS

ORTNI



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CONCLUSION

Final Highlights

38


© 2015 IHS 39

Competing Conflicts

Infrastructure – More

Charging Stations Air Quality

Road Funding Lower Emission

Vehicles Vehicle Choice

Reduced Fuel Cost

New Technology New Amenities

Better Roads

Infrastructure – Charge

Everywhere

Vehicle Cost Technology Cost

CO2 HP


© 2014 IHS

PRESENTATION NAME / MONTH 2014

Key Takeaways • Electrified vehicles are never sustained

directly by oil prices, but its velocity is

controlled by oil price

• Legislation determines technology

winners and losers

• Automakers are beginning to choose its

technology of choice to meet CAFE and

ZEV regulations

• xEVs are still very immature in the

market with many unreached consumers

and low-penetration in most states.

40

IHS Customer Care:

• Americas: +1 800 IHS CARE (+1 800 447 2273); [email protected]

• Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) 1344 328 300; [email protected]

• Asia and the Pacific Rim: +604 291 3600; [email protected]

© 2014 IHS. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and IHS.

Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the

opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. For more

information, please contact IHS at Customer Care (see phone numbers and email addresses above). All products, company names or other marks appearing in this publication are the trademarks and property of IHS or their respective owners.

Catching A Falling Star: Will U.S. Automakers Keep xEVs

Powered In A Low-Oil Price Environment

Devin Lindsay

Principal Analyst - North America Powertrain

IHS Automotive

mailto:[email protected]



Presentation Catching A Falling Star: Will U.S. …cdn.ihs.com/.../Devin-Lindsay-Presentation-English.pdfPresentation ihs.com IHS AUTOMOTIVE Catching A Falling Star: Will U.S. Automakers

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