PPWNov13- Day 2 pm- Mogues and Billings- IFPRI

Political economy determinants of public investments for nutrition in MozambiqueWorkshop on Approaches and Methods

for Policy Process Research

November 18 - 20, 2013

Lucy Billings*, Tewodaj Mogues* and Domingos M. do Rosário+

*International Food Policy Research Institute+ Universidade Eduardo Mondlane

Study motivation and objectives

• Empirically test theory on political economy drivers for public investment decisions

• Apply theory to a complex multi-sector topic – Nutrition

• Examine the topic in a context with extensive development and nutrition challenges – Mozambique

• From the perspective of this workshop’s themes:• Analysing policy processes• Using research evidence to influence/engage with policy processes• Evaluating the contribution fo research to policy process formulation

Mode 1.2

Development outcomes

Public Expenditures

Political economyfactors

Donors ● Bureaucrats ● Beneficiaries NGOs ● Politicians ● Researchers

Budget-maximizing Vote-seeking Knowledge Collective action

Olson 1985; Tridimas 2001; Binswanger & Deininger 1997

Framework

Public investment decisions

Political and economic governance environment

Actors...

… and their attributes & incentives

Characteristics of investments

Budget process

Visibility

Lag

Keefer & Khemani 2005

Socio-economic inequality Political liberties

Rule of law Corruption

de la Croix & Delavallade 2009; Keefer & Knack 2007

de facto

de jure

Cohen et al. 1972; Davis 1971; Cowartet al. 1975; Ostrom 1977; Reinikka & Svensson, 2004

For this study

Public investment decisions

Political and economic governance environment

Characteristics of investments

Budget process

Actors...

… and their attributes & incentives

Qualitative analytical methods• Process tracing (Beach and Pederson, 2013) – Within-case

inferences on the presence or absence of causal mechanisms

Theory-testing: Identify if the theorized causal mechanisms are present and if they function as anticipated

Theory-building: Investigate the empirical material to identify causal mechanisms between defined explanatory and outcome variables

• Resource flow map – A component of PETSs (Reinikka and Svensson 2006, Koziol and Tolmie 2010), which seek to identify public expenditure inefficiencies. We will not conduct a full PETS in this study, but will develop a RFM to track budgeting and spending processes

• Identification of emerging themes – Apply the Grounded Theory method (Glaser and Strauss, 2012) to analyse data across sites within Mozambique, and identify themes that further develop theoretical framework

Public investment decisions

Political and economic governance environment

Characteristics of investments

Budget process

Process-tracing: theory-testing

Actors...

… and their attributes & incentives

Process-tracing: theory-testingCharacteristics of investments

Visibility and lag of

investments

Attributabiliy to decision

maker

Political credit

Public resource

allocation to nutrition

OutcomeCausal

mechanismCausal

mechanism

Investment is recognisable; Time between

resource allocation and

outcomes

Identification of decision

makers responsible

for allocation

Greater support for politician

Level of & change in

public expenditures on nutrition

Explanatory

TH

EO

RE

TIC

AL

EM

PIR

ICA

L

Process-tracing: theory-testing Characteristics of investments

Public investment decisions

Political and economic governance environment

Characteristics of investments

Budget process

Process-tracing: theory-building

Actors...

… and their attributes & incentives

Coordination across

sectors & agencies

? ?

Public resource

allocation to nutrition

OutcomeCausal

mechanismCausal

mechanism

Observable manifestations

Observable manifestations

Level of & change in

public expenditures on nutrition

Explanatory

TH

EO

RE

TIC

AL

EM

PIR

ICA

L

One agency’s knowledge of and influence

on another

Inferred existence

Facts of the case

Process-tracing: theory-building Actors and their incentives

Public investment decisions

Political and economic governance environment

Characteristics of investments

Budget process

Resource flow map

Actors...

… and their attributes & incentives

• Which actors are involved?

• Who are the decision makers?

• What is the budget process direction?

• What are the intermediary steps?

• What are the different types of allocations?

Resource flow map Budget process

Funding sources

Beneficiaries

Study area

Country – MozambiqueNational level perspective

3 provincesTeteNampulaSofala

6 districts2 districts selected from each province: one high and one low-investment district

Selected districts so far

Maputo (capital)

Empirical tools

Key informant interviews

Data processing approach• Full transcription of all interviews• Coding using NVivo• Translation of Portuguese sections

of coded material

National

Provincial

District

Total

Government 7 9 15 31

NGOs 6 9 15

Donors 4 4

Other 3 3

TOTAL 20 18 15 53

Document review• Government fiscal documents • Donor initiative commitments• NGO project and program planning documents

Preliminary findings: Actors and their incentives

• Motivations of government officials impact level of engagement in information sharing and opportunity seeking

• Attempts at even geographic coverage of resource allocations: Strong donor coordination body for nutrition

• Still many gaps in inter-agency coordination: some NGOs implement nutrition projects without strong awareness of government nutrition initiatives and programs

Preliminary findings: Characteristics of Investments

• High visibility and quick implementation: Vitamin A distribution during National Health Week, vs. nutrition education for behavioural change

• Ability to show measurable impacts

• Alignment with international nutrition priorities and employment of evidence-based interventions

Preliminary findings: Budget Process• There is no nutrition budget line item so any allocations for nutrition are made within sector budgets

• Nearly all funding for nutrition comes from donor contributions

• Donor priorities drive budget allocations (mostly in a top-down process)

• Donor allocation pathways include:

Through government – within a single sector (usually health)

Through NGOs – easier to employ a cross-sector approach

Thank you

Questions?

Feedback?Analytical strategy

Experience with process tracing analysis