PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON FINANCE September 2002. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY.

PORTFOLIO COMMITTEEPORTFOLIO COMMITTEEONON

FINANCEFINANCE

September 2002

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMYINTERNATIONAL ECONOMYINTERNATIONAL ECONOMYINTERNATIONAL ECONOMY

International oil priceInternational oil priceInternational oil priceInternational oil price

OECD leading indicatorsOECD leading indicatorsOECD leading indicatorsOECD leading indicators

-0,4

2,4

World Economic Outlook: Real GDPWorld Economic Outlook: Real GDPWorld Economic Outlook: Real GDPWorld Economic Outlook: Real GDP

Annual percentage change in real GDPActual Projections

2001 2002 2003World 2.5 2.8 4.0

Advanced economies 1.2 1.7 3.0USA 1.2 2.3 3.4Japan -0.4 -1.0 0.8Euro area 1.5 1.4 2.9United Kingdom 2.2 2.0 2.8

Developing countries 4.0 4.3 5.5Africa 3.7 3.4 4.2Asia 5.6 5.9 6.4Western Hemisphere 0.7 0.7 3.7

Countries in transition 5.0 3.9 4.4

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook - April 2002

World Economic Outlook: Consumer pricesWorld Economic Outlook: Consumer pricesWorld Economic Outlook: Consumer pricesWorld Economic Outlook: Consumer prices

Annual percentage change in consumer pricesActual Projections

2001 2002 2003World 4.3 3.6 3.5

Advanced economies 2.2 1.3 1.8USA 2.8 1.4 2.4Japan -0.7 -1.1 -0.5Euro area 2.6 1.9 1.6United Kingdom 2.1 2.4 2.5

Developing countries 5.7 5.8 5.1Africa 12.6 9.3 6.1Asia 2.6 2.5 3.0Western Hemisphere 6.4 8.2 7.4

Countries in transition 15.9 10.8 8.7

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook - April 2002

USA: Real gross domestic productUSA: Real gross domestic productUSA: Real gross domestic productUSA: Real gross domestic product

1,1

USA: Unemployment rateUSA: Unemployment rateUSA: Unemployment rateUSA: Unemployment rate

5,7

USA: Consumer pricesUSA: Consumer pricesUSA: Consumer pricesUSA: Consumer prices

1,5

2,2

Japan: Real gross domestic productJapan: Real gross domestic productJapan: Real gross domestic productJapan: Real gross domestic product

1,9

Japan: Unemployment rateJapan: Unemployment rateJapan: Unemployment rateJapan: Unemployment rate

5,4

Japan: Consumer pricesJapan: Consumer pricesJapan: Consumer pricesJapan: Consumer prices

-0,8

Euro Area: Real gross domestic productEuro Area: Real gross domestic productEuro Area: Real gross domestic productEuro Area: Real gross domestic product

1,4

Euro Area: Unemployment rateEuro Area: Unemployment rateEuro Area: Unemployment rateEuro Area: Unemployment rate

8,3

Euro Area: Consumer pricesEuro Area: Consumer pricesEuro Area: Consumer pricesEuro Area: Consumer prices

1,9

UK: Real gross domestic productUK: Real gross domestic productUK: Real gross domestic productUK: Real gross domestic product

2,3

UK: UnemploymentUK: UnemploymentUK: UnemploymentUK: Unemployment

3,1

UK: Consumer pricesUK: Consumer pricesUK: Consumer pricesUK: Consumer prices

1,5

2,0

SADC: InflationSADC: InflationSADC: InflationSADC: Inflation

Annual percentage change in consumer prices

2000 2001 Feb 2002 Mar 2001 Apr 2002

Africa 13.6 12.6 * * *

Angola 268.4 168.2 94.8 96.3 102.6

Botswana 8.7 6.6 5.8 5.9 8.8

Lesotho 6.2 6.9 12.6 12.6 *

Malawi 29.6 27.5 17.1 16.7 16.1

Mauritius 4.2 5.4 7.2 6.3 6.3

Mozambique 12.7 9.1 19.5 18.3 16.6

Namibia 9.3 9.3 10.9 10.5 11.9

Seychelles 6.3 6.4 2.9 2.4 *

South Africa 5.3 5.7 8.4 8.9 10.6

Swaziland 7.3 7.5 12.2 12.0 11.8

Tanzania 5.9 5.2 4.6 4.5 *

Zambia 25.9 21.7 20.9 23.6 23.4

Zimbabwe 55.7 74.5 122.5 114.5 123.5

* Not available ** IMF Projections* Not available ** IMF Projections

Source: National central banks and IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2001)Source: National central banks and IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2001)

NATIONAL ECONOMYNATIONAL ECONOMYNATIONAL ECONOMYNATIONAL ECONOMY

Real gross domestic productReal gross domestic productReal gross domestic productReal gross domestic product

32

23

Real gross domestic product by the Real gross domestic product by the secondary sectorssecondary sectors

Real gross domestic product by the Real gross domestic product by the secondary sectorssecondary sectors

2 4

1,5

0,5 1,5

Real gross domestic expenditureReal gross domestic expenditureReal gross domestic expenditureReal gross domestic expenditure

6

-1

Real final consumption expenditure by Real final consumption expenditure by householdshouseholds

Real final consumption expenditure by Real final consumption expenditure by householdshouseholds

3 3

Real household disposable incomeReal household disposable incomeReal household disposable incomeReal household disposable income

3,5 3

Household debt as percentage of household Household debt as percentage of household disposable incomedisposable income

Household debt as percentage of household Household debt as percentage of household disposable incomedisposable income

54

53

Real final consumption expenditure by Real final consumption expenditure by general governmentgeneral government

Real final consumption expenditure by Real final consumption expenditure by general governmentgeneral government

3 3

Real gross fixed capital formationReal gross fixed capital formationReal gross fixed capital formationReal gross fixed capital formation

6 7,5

Real investment in inventoriesReal investment in inventoriesReal investment in inventoriesReal investment in inventories

Gross saving as percentage of gross Gross saving as percentage of gross domestic productdomestic product

Gross saving as percentage of gross Gross saving as percentage of gross domestic productdomestic product

16

15,5

12

10,5

Non-agricultural employmentNon-agricultural employmentNon-agricultural employmentNon-agricultural employment

Labour market statistics, based on the labour Labour market statistics, based on the labour force surveyforce survey

Labour market statistics, based on the labour Labour market statistics, based on the labour force surveyforce survey

Feb Sep Feb Sep2000 2000 2001 2001(000’s) (000’s) (000’s) (000’s)

a Total employed 11 880 11 712 11 837 10 833Among the employed:Employed in the formal sectorSTEE survey (excluding agricultureand certain activities not covered in STEE) 4 754 4 685 4 676 4 650Employed in agriculture 2 265 1 632 1 352 1 051Employed in the formal sector inactivities not covered in STEE 1 924 2 157 2 002 2 223Employed in the informal sector 1 821 1 933 2 665 1 873Employed in domestic service 1 001 999 914 916

b Total unemployed (official definition) 4 333 4 082 4 240 4 525c Total economically active = a + b 16 213 15 794 16 077 15 358d Total not economically active 10 242 11 100 11 044 12 006e Total aged 15-65 years = c + d 26 454 26 894 27 121 27 365f Official unemployment rate = b * 100 / c 26,7% 25,8% 26,4% 29.5%

SEE - Survey of Employment and Earnings in selected industriesSEE - Survey of Employment and Earnings in selected industriesSTEE - Survey of Total Employment and EarningsSTEE - Survey of Total Employment and Earnings

Non-agricultural nominal remuneration per Non-agricultural nominal remuneration per workerworker

Non-agricultural nominal remuneration per Non-agricultural nominal remuneration per workerworker

10,7

9,6

Non-agricultural labour productivityNon-agricultural labour productivityNon-agricultural labour productivityNon-agricultural labour productivity

3,5

3

Non-agricultural nominal unit labour costNon-agricultural nominal unit labour costNon-agricultural nominal unit labour costNon-agricultural nominal unit labour cost

7

6,4

Nominal unit labour cost in manufacturingNominal unit labour cost in manufacturingNominal unit labour cost in manufacturingNominal unit labour cost in manufacturing

3,2

All-goods production priceAll-goods production priceAll-goods production priceAll-goods production price

7,8Sep

15,2Jul

Overall inflation and CPIXOverall inflation and CPIXOverall inflation and CPIXOverall inflation and CPIX

4Oct

11,6Aug

10,8Aug

CPIX excluding food, energy and admiCPIX excluding food, energy and administered nistered pricesprices

CPIX excluding food, energy and admiCPIX excluding food, energy and administered nistered pricesprices

3.0

4.5

6.0

7.5

9.0

Ex food Ex food & energy Ex food, energy & administered prices

Per cent

4,6

8,1

Balance of payments: Current accountBalance of payments: Current accountBalance of payments: Current accountBalance of payments: Current account

53,7

-50,6

3,1

Balance on financial accountBalance on financial accountBalance on financial accountBalance on financial account

12,1

21,5

Financial accountFinancial accountFinancial accountFinancial account

7,7

14,1

-5,7

21,5

Gross gold and other foreign reservesGross gold and other foreign reservesGross gold and other foreign reservesGross gold and other foreign reserves

14,9

7,5

Gross gold and other foreign reservesGross gold and other foreign reservesGross gold and other foreign reservesGross gold and other foreign reserves

151,6

79,8

Imports covered by reservesImports covered by reservesImports covered by reservesImports covered by reserves

20

Net open position in foreign currencyNet open position in foreign currencyNet open position in foreign currencyNet open position in foreign currency

4,8

1,8

Average net daily turnover in South African Average net daily turnover in South African foreign exchange marketforeign exchange market

Average net daily turnover in South African Average net daily turnover in South African foreign exchange marketforeign exchange market

8,6

8Jul

Exchange rate of the randExchange rate of the randExchange rate of the randExchange rate of the rand

Real effective exchange rate of the randReal effective exchange rate of the randReal effective exchange rate of the randReal effective exchange rate of the rand

-31,6

5

M3 money supplyM3 money supplyM3 money supplyM3 money supply

20,6May

17,4Jul

Domestic credit extensionDomestic credit extensionDomestic credit extensionDomestic credit extension

17,1

9,6

Turnover in the secondary bond marketTurnover in the secondary bond marketTurnover in the secondary bond marketTurnover in the secondary bond market

Money-market interest ratesMoney-market interest ratesMoney-market interest ratesMoney-market interest rates

13,5

Yield on long-term government bondsYield on long-term government bondsYield on long-term government bondsYield on long-term government bonds

13,28

11,74

Yield curveYield curveYield curveYield curve

Turnover in the secondary share marketTurnover in the secondary share marketTurnover in the secondary share marketTurnover in the secondary share market

76

Share prices - all classesShare prices - all classesShare prices - all classesShare prices - all classes

35

Real-estate marketReal-estate marketReal-estate marketReal-estate market

Revenue of national governmentRevenue of national governmentRevenue of national governmentRevenue of national government

20,4

7,1

Expenditure by national governmentExpenditure by national governmentExpenditure by national governmentExpenditure by national government

13,6

9,6

Deficit of national governmentDeficit of national governmentDeficit of national governmentDeficit of national government

22,7

3,9

Non-financial public-sector borrowing Non-financial public-sector borrowing requirementrequirement

Non-financial public-sector borrowing Non-financial public-sector borrowing requirementrequirement

-2,9

1,1

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