PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON ON FINANCE FINANCE September 2002
Jan 19, 2016
PORTFOLIO COMMITTEEPORTFOLIO COMMITTEEONON
FINANCEFINANCE
September 2002
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMYINTERNATIONAL ECONOMYINTERNATIONAL ECONOMYINTERNATIONAL ECONOMY
International oil priceInternational oil priceInternational oil priceInternational oil price
OECD leading indicatorsOECD leading indicatorsOECD leading indicatorsOECD leading indicators
-0,4
2,4
World Economic Outlook: Real GDPWorld Economic Outlook: Real GDPWorld Economic Outlook: Real GDPWorld Economic Outlook: Real GDP
Annual percentage change in real GDPActual Projections
2001 2002 2003World 2.5 2.8 4.0
Advanced economies 1.2 1.7 3.0USA 1.2 2.3 3.4Japan -0.4 -1.0 0.8Euro area 1.5 1.4 2.9United Kingdom 2.2 2.0 2.8
Developing countries 4.0 4.3 5.5Africa 3.7 3.4 4.2Asia 5.6 5.9 6.4Western Hemisphere 0.7 0.7 3.7
Countries in transition 5.0 3.9 4.4
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook - April 2002
World Economic Outlook: Consumer pricesWorld Economic Outlook: Consumer pricesWorld Economic Outlook: Consumer pricesWorld Economic Outlook: Consumer prices
Annual percentage change in consumer pricesActual Projections
2001 2002 2003World 4.3 3.6 3.5
Advanced economies 2.2 1.3 1.8USA 2.8 1.4 2.4Japan -0.7 -1.1 -0.5Euro area 2.6 1.9 1.6United Kingdom 2.1 2.4 2.5
Developing countries 5.7 5.8 5.1Africa 12.6 9.3 6.1Asia 2.6 2.5 3.0Western Hemisphere 6.4 8.2 7.4
Countries in transition 15.9 10.8 8.7
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook - April 2002
USA: Real gross domestic productUSA: Real gross domestic productUSA: Real gross domestic productUSA: Real gross domestic product
1,1
USA: Unemployment rateUSA: Unemployment rateUSA: Unemployment rateUSA: Unemployment rate
5,7
USA: Consumer pricesUSA: Consumer pricesUSA: Consumer pricesUSA: Consumer prices
1,5
2,2
Japan: Real gross domestic productJapan: Real gross domestic productJapan: Real gross domestic productJapan: Real gross domestic product
1,9
Japan: Unemployment rateJapan: Unemployment rateJapan: Unemployment rateJapan: Unemployment rate
5,4
Japan: Consumer pricesJapan: Consumer pricesJapan: Consumer pricesJapan: Consumer prices
-0,8
Euro Area: Real gross domestic productEuro Area: Real gross domestic productEuro Area: Real gross domestic productEuro Area: Real gross domestic product
1,4
Euro Area: Unemployment rateEuro Area: Unemployment rateEuro Area: Unemployment rateEuro Area: Unemployment rate
8,3
Euro Area: Consumer pricesEuro Area: Consumer pricesEuro Area: Consumer pricesEuro Area: Consumer prices
1,9
UK: Real gross domestic productUK: Real gross domestic productUK: Real gross domestic productUK: Real gross domestic product
2,3
UK: UnemploymentUK: UnemploymentUK: UnemploymentUK: Unemployment
3,1
UK: Consumer pricesUK: Consumer pricesUK: Consumer pricesUK: Consumer prices
1,5
2,0
SADC: InflationSADC: InflationSADC: InflationSADC: Inflation
Annual percentage change in consumer prices
2000 2001 Feb 2002 Mar 2001 Apr 2002
Africa 13.6 12.6 * * *
Angola 268.4 168.2 94.8 96.3 102.6
Botswana 8.7 6.6 5.8 5.9 8.8
Lesotho 6.2 6.9 12.6 12.6 *
Malawi 29.6 27.5 17.1 16.7 16.1
Mauritius 4.2 5.4 7.2 6.3 6.3
Mozambique 12.7 9.1 19.5 18.3 16.6
Namibia 9.3 9.3 10.9 10.5 11.9
Seychelles 6.3 6.4 2.9 2.4 *
South Africa 5.3 5.7 8.4 8.9 10.6
Swaziland 7.3 7.5 12.2 12.0 11.8
Tanzania 5.9 5.2 4.6 4.5 *
Zambia 25.9 21.7 20.9 23.6 23.4
Zimbabwe 55.7 74.5 122.5 114.5 123.5
* Not available ** IMF Projections* Not available ** IMF Projections
Source: National central banks and IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2001)Source: National central banks and IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2001)
NATIONAL ECONOMYNATIONAL ECONOMYNATIONAL ECONOMYNATIONAL ECONOMY
Real gross domestic productReal gross domestic productReal gross domestic productReal gross domestic product
32
23
Real gross domestic product by the Real gross domestic product by the secondary sectorssecondary sectors
Real gross domestic product by the Real gross domestic product by the secondary sectorssecondary sectors
2 4
1,5
0,5 1,5
Real gross domestic expenditureReal gross domestic expenditureReal gross domestic expenditureReal gross domestic expenditure
6
-1
Real final consumption expenditure by Real final consumption expenditure by householdshouseholds
Real final consumption expenditure by Real final consumption expenditure by householdshouseholds
3 3
Real household disposable incomeReal household disposable incomeReal household disposable incomeReal household disposable income
3,5 3
Household debt as percentage of household Household debt as percentage of household disposable incomedisposable income
Household debt as percentage of household Household debt as percentage of household disposable incomedisposable income
54
53
Real final consumption expenditure by Real final consumption expenditure by general governmentgeneral government
Real final consumption expenditure by Real final consumption expenditure by general governmentgeneral government
3 3
Real gross fixed capital formationReal gross fixed capital formationReal gross fixed capital formationReal gross fixed capital formation
6 7,5
Real investment in inventoriesReal investment in inventoriesReal investment in inventoriesReal investment in inventories
Gross saving as percentage of gross Gross saving as percentage of gross domestic productdomestic product
Gross saving as percentage of gross Gross saving as percentage of gross domestic productdomestic product
16
15,5
12
10,5
Non-agricultural employmentNon-agricultural employmentNon-agricultural employmentNon-agricultural employment
Labour market statistics, based on the labour Labour market statistics, based on the labour force surveyforce survey
Labour market statistics, based on the labour Labour market statistics, based on the labour force surveyforce survey
Feb Sep Feb Sep2000 2000 2001 2001(000’s) (000’s) (000’s) (000’s)
a Total employed 11 880 11 712 11 837 10 833Among the employed:Employed in the formal sectorSTEE survey (excluding agricultureand certain activities not covered in STEE) 4 754 4 685 4 676 4 650Employed in agriculture 2 265 1 632 1 352 1 051Employed in the formal sector inactivities not covered in STEE 1 924 2 157 2 002 2 223Employed in the informal sector 1 821 1 933 2 665 1 873Employed in domestic service 1 001 999 914 916
b Total unemployed (official definition) 4 333 4 082 4 240 4 525c Total economically active = a + b 16 213 15 794 16 077 15 358d Total not economically active 10 242 11 100 11 044 12 006e Total aged 15-65 years = c + d 26 454 26 894 27 121 27 365f Official unemployment rate = b * 100 / c 26,7% 25,8% 26,4% 29.5%
SEE - Survey of Employment and Earnings in selected industriesSEE - Survey of Employment and Earnings in selected industriesSTEE - Survey of Total Employment and EarningsSTEE - Survey of Total Employment and Earnings
Non-agricultural nominal remuneration per Non-agricultural nominal remuneration per workerworker
Non-agricultural nominal remuneration per Non-agricultural nominal remuneration per workerworker
10,7
9,6
Non-agricultural labour productivityNon-agricultural labour productivityNon-agricultural labour productivityNon-agricultural labour productivity
3,5
3
Non-agricultural nominal unit labour costNon-agricultural nominal unit labour costNon-agricultural nominal unit labour costNon-agricultural nominal unit labour cost
7
6,4
Nominal unit labour cost in manufacturingNominal unit labour cost in manufacturingNominal unit labour cost in manufacturingNominal unit labour cost in manufacturing
3,2
All-goods production priceAll-goods production priceAll-goods production priceAll-goods production price
7,8Sep
15,2Jul
Overall inflation and CPIXOverall inflation and CPIXOverall inflation and CPIXOverall inflation and CPIX
4Oct
11,6Aug
10,8Aug
CPIX excluding food, energy and admiCPIX excluding food, energy and administered nistered pricesprices
CPIX excluding food, energy and admiCPIX excluding food, energy and administered nistered pricesprices
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
9.0
Ex food Ex food & energy Ex food, energy & administered prices
Per cent
4,6
8,1
Balance of payments: Current accountBalance of payments: Current accountBalance of payments: Current accountBalance of payments: Current account
53,7
-50,6
3,1
Balance on financial accountBalance on financial accountBalance on financial accountBalance on financial account
12,1
21,5
Financial accountFinancial accountFinancial accountFinancial account
7,7
14,1
-5,7
21,5
Gross gold and other foreign reservesGross gold and other foreign reservesGross gold and other foreign reservesGross gold and other foreign reserves
14,9
7,5
Gross gold and other foreign reservesGross gold and other foreign reservesGross gold and other foreign reservesGross gold and other foreign reserves
151,6
79,8
Imports covered by reservesImports covered by reservesImports covered by reservesImports covered by reserves
20
Net open position in foreign currencyNet open position in foreign currencyNet open position in foreign currencyNet open position in foreign currency
4,8
1,8
Average net daily turnover in South African Average net daily turnover in South African foreign exchange marketforeign exchange market
Average net daily turnover in South African Average net daily turnover in South African foreign exchange marketforeign exchange market
8,6
8Jul
Exchange rate of the randExchange rate of the randExchange rate of the randExchange rate of the rand
Real effective exchange rate of the randReal effective exchange rate of the randReal effective exchange rate of the randReal effective exchange rate of the rand
-31,6
5
M3 money supplyM3 money supplyM3 money supplyM3 money supply
20,6May
17,4Jul
Domestic credit extensionDomestic credit extensionDomestic credit extensionDomestic credit extension
17,1
9,6
Turnover in the secondary bond marketTurnover in the secondary bond marketTurnover in the secondary bond marketTurnover in the secondary bond market
Money-market interest ratesMoney-market interest ratesMoney-market interest ratesMoney-market interest rates
13,5
Yield on long-term government bondsYield on long-term government bondsYield on long-term government bondsYield on long-term government bonds
13,28
11,74
Yield curveYield curveYield curveYield curve
Turnover in the secondary share marketTurnover in the secondary share marketTurnover in the secondary share marketTurnover in the secondary share market
76
Share prices - all classesShare prices - all classesShare prices - all classesShare prices - all classes
35
Real-estate marketReal-estate marketReal-estate marketReal-estate market
Revenue of national governmentRevenue of national governmentRevenue of national governmentRevenue of national government
20,4
7,1
Expenditure by national governmentExpenditure by national governmentExpenditure by national governmentExpenditure by national government
13,6
9,6
Deficit of national governmentDeficit of national governmentDeficit of national governmentDeficit of national government
22,7
3,9
Non-financial public-sector borrowing Non-financial public-sector borrowing requirementrequirement
Non-financial public-sector borrowing Non-financial public-sector borrowing requirementrequirement
-2,9
1,1
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