Peak oil, climate change and a world beyond oil

Peak oil, climate change and a world beyond oil

Woking LA21

HG Wells Centre

29 September 2010

David Strahan

www.odac-info.org

Why they call it peak oil

Source: ASPO

Source: UKERC, DECC

Why oil peaksUK North Sea oil production by field

● Oil supplies 95% transport energy

● Agriculture: producing 1 calorie of food requires 10 calories of fossil energy.

● Oil and gas provide all petrochemicals and lubricants

● Oil drives gas and power prices

● Oil price spikes cause recessions

Why it matters

Peak oil and climate change

Source data: IEA WEO 2009

28bn tCO2 2007

CO2 emissions by sector

The primacy of oil

Source data: IEA Renewables Data, 2009

12026 Mtoe, 2007

Global primary energy by fuel

Where the oil goes

Source data: ITPOES, 2010

85m barrels / day

Oil use by function

Oil producers (98)

Post peak oil producers (64)

Source: IHS Energy; Groppe, Long & Littell

Couldn’t we find some more?

Non-conventionals slow

Tar sands output 2035: 6.3 mb/d ?

Growth in the Canadian Oil Sands, IHS CERA 2009

Conventional depletion to 2030: 60 mb/dGlobal Oil Depletion, UKERC, 2009

Sadad al-Huseini 2004Kenneth Deffeyes 2005Bank Macquarie 2009 Colin Campbell 2010Petrobras 2010ITPOES 2014Total 2015Douglas-Westwood 2015PFC Energy 2020UKERC ‘significant risk’ pre-2020Shell 2020sIEA 2020-30

We’re all peakists now….

Are we there yet?

Source: Energyquote

● Oil price volatility, rising spikes

● Serial recessions

● Shrinking fuel supply

● Short term outages – 2000 revisited?

● Sooner than climate change!

Impacts

● ‘1st generation’: food crops In Europe/US, 5% road fuel = 20% cropland (IEA)

● ‘2nd generation’: woody biomass World transport fuel demand = land area of China (Strahan)

● Not low carbon!

Biofuels inadequate

Source: BMW

Hydrogen wasteful

BEV potential massive

Source: SustainAbility

Two birds, one stone

Source data: IEA WEO 2009

28bn tCO2 2007

CO2 emissions by sector

Sources: NSCA, DfT

Biomethane could provide 16% UK transport fuel (NSCA, 2006)

Public transport consumes <5%

Large vehicles - biogas

● Decarbonize electricity supply

● Electrify ground transport and heat

● Biogas for heavy transport

● Demand reduction

● Carbon pricing

How to reach a world beyond oil

“This book should be compulsory reading in government in this and every other oil importing country.” Richard Hardman CBE, former head of E&P, Amerada Hess

“…a really good and informative read on a topic that affects us all.”Lord Oxburgh, former chairman of Shell

“This important and easily-read book is the first I've seen which presents the vital technical data accurately and intelligibly.”Jeremy Gilbert, former Chief PetroleumEngineer, BP

“A well written exposition of the peak oil case.”Ed Crooks, Energy Editor, FinancialTimes

Is Woking CHP approach the answer?

Is Woking CHP approach the answer?

Impact of Woking approach

Gas use efficiency doubled?

Gas consumption cut by c30%

82% electricity self generated:

71% gas fired CHP 11% renewables

Drawbacks of Woking CHP approach

- Increased gas dependency

- Gas shocks, price volatility

- Inflexibility: harder to balance renewable generation – Danish example

- CHP displaces renewables, locks in emissions

- Biogas cannot replace natural gas: all UK arable land would produce less than half the necessary biogas – even if demand cut by 30% (Strahan)

Intermittency is solvable

West Denmark wind vs demand, 25% wind energy (Jan 2008)

West Denmark wind vs demand, 50% wind energy

Source: Danish Technological Institute

100% renewable supergrid?

Source data: Mainstream Renewables

Does it have to cost the earth?

Power investment to 2030

European/N Africa supergrid: € 1.5 trn(Czisch) (= €0.047 / kWh)

BAU Europe $2.4 trn (IEA WEO 2009)

BAU global power sector $13.7 trn (IEA WEO 2009)

“This book should be compulsory reading in government in this and every other oil importing country.” Richard Hardman CBE, former head of E&P, Amerada Hess

“…a really good and informative read on a topic that affects us all.”Lord Oxburgh, former chairman of Shell

“This important and easily-read book is the first I've seen which presents the vital technical data accurately and intelligibly.”Jeremy Gilbert, former Chief PetroleumEngineer, BP

“A well written exposition of the peak oil case.”Ed Crooks, Energy Editor, FinancialTimes

Aren’t we finding lots more oil?

Giant oil find by BP reopens debate about oil supplies

BG's Brazilian oil find will 'dwarf' BP's strike in the US Gulf Coast

Guardian, 2 September 2009

Guardian, 9 September 2009