Overview Climate change and energy: from short-term ... · Climate change and energy: from short-term matters to long-term challenges ... esp. co-control of SO 2
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09/11/2011
1
Climate change and energy: from short-term matters to
long-term challenges –and back
Dr Fabian WagnerInternational Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Kongres ILMU Pengetahuan Nasional XJakarta, 8-9 November 2011
Overview
• Part I (c. 10’)An overview of IIASA
• Part II (c. 20’)Research on Energy and Climate at IIASA
• Challenges, Objectives and Research Themes• Energy Access and Health• Linkages between Climate Change and Air Pollution
• Conclusions
Part I: IIASA
IIASA’s identityFounded in 1972, the International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis (IIASA) is an international research organization that conducts policy-oriented research into problems that are too large or too complex to be solved by a single country or academic discipline:
1. problems like climate change that have a global reach and can be resolved only by international cooperative action, or
2. problems of common concern to many countries that need to be addressed at the national level, such as energy security, population aging, and sustainable development.
IIASA’S MEMBERS: NATIONAL
ACADEMIES
INTERNATIONAL
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2
INTERDISCIPLINARY
INTERDISCIPLINARY
35%
37%
28% Natural Scientists & EngineersSocial Scientists
Mathematicians and others
Location of IIASALocation of IIASA
Vienna-Schwechat
Airport
HOME OF IIASA SINCE 1972 ……and Nobel prize winnersand Nobel prize winners
Building the next generation of scientistsBuilding the next generation of scientists
Advanced students June – August Work with IIASA
scientists Funded by NMO &
other sources Publication Peccei & Mikhalevich
awards
Many return to IIASA to pursue a research career
Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSPYoung Scientists Summer Program (YSSP))
IIASA postdoctoral Program: Several IIASA funded scholarships per year IIASA postdoctoral Program: Several IIASA funded scholarships per year
RESEARCH FUNDERS & PARTNERS
FUNDING• 50/50 membership
fees and external funds
• EUR 17 million budget• In 2011: 19 national
members and 50+ organizations sponsored IIASA research
PARTNERS• IIASA collaborates
with almost 300 institutions from nearly 40 countries
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Humanity’s major challenges are inextricably linked
Energy & Climate Change
Poverty & Equity
Food & Water
IIASA’s Approach inRESEARCHING GLOBAL CHALLENGES
• Integrated• Interdisciplinary• International • Independent• Solution-oriented• Long term• Trade offs
} = Systems Analysis
RESEARCH FOR A CHANGING WORLD
Energy & Climate Change
Poverty & Equity
Food & Water
Part II:Energy and Climate Change Research at IIASA
Energy & Climate Change
Poverty & Equity
Food & Water
Energy & Climate: Some Challenges
Energy:• Provision of energy to an increasing and wealthier world
population will face multiple serious constraints: – resource availability, energy security, local and regional air pollution, water
demand, capital resources, climate impacts
• Problem is exacerbated by current lack of access to affordable, modern, and clean energy services to 3 billion people
• Investments and energy R&D have declined
Climate:• Stabilization requires global action to be taken soon, while climate
benefits will be felt in the long-run, somewhere on the globe• Fundamental changes in behavior and consumption patterns
would be required for stabilization
Research Objectives
1. Distill near-term characteristics of transformation paths that are necessary for the achievement of long-term targets
2. Identify transformation strategies that are robust against a wide range of development futures
3. Develop tools for the analysis of transition strategies at regional, national, and local scales consistent with the required global transformation
4. Identify solutions and policy instruments that integrate all important economic sectors and consider interactions and feedbacks among these sectors
5. Explore how to overcome institutional obstacles caused by divergent goals and objectives, misaligned economic incentives, and other barriers to innovation and diffusion
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Some Research Themes
• Energy poverty, access and health• Transformation of the Global Energy System to Achieve a Low
Carbon World– Focus: Integrated assessment (bridging of temporal and spatial scales)
• Investing in Energy and R&D– Focus: How to mobilize the required resources for technology diffusion,
adoption, and capacity building (policy mechanisms and financing)?
• Regional air pollution and global climate change– The GAINS co-benefits approach
• Renewable Energy• Vulnerability and Adaptation to climate change• and more…
Energy poverty, access and health
Socio-Economic & Wellbeing Dimensions of Energy PovertyIndia 2005: Who has access to clean energy?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
Percentage of users
Mean expenditure by deciles in 2000 PPP $ per capita
Rural LPG Rural electricity Urban LPG Urban electricity
Socio-Economic & Wellbeing Dimensions of Energy PovertyIndia 2030: Health benefits from energy access policies
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
Base 2005 No new policies 2030
20% Fuel Subsidy 2030
50% Fuel Subsidy 2030
Microfinance @15% only
2030
Microfinance @15% + 20% Fuel Subsidy
2030
Microfinance @15% + 50% Fuel Subsidy
2030
Population in Billions Dependent on Solid Fuels
Impact of Alternative Policies on Dependence on Solid Fuels
Fuel subsidies coupled with grants or microfinance schemes that make cheap credit available for the purchase of new stoves are most effective
2030
People gaining access to
modern energy carriers
An additional 200 million without access by 2030
Subsidies alone less than half dependence
Microfinance alone not very effective
Strategies for Universal Energy Access by 2030Present Situation - Investments and Benefits to 2030
Regional TotalRegional Total
LegendLegend
Map (2010)Map (2010)Future investments and health benefits by 2030Future investments and health benefits by 2030
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Links between Climate Change and Air Pollution:
The co-benefits approach
PM (BC, OC)
SO2 NOx VOC NH3 CO CO2 CH4 N2OHFCsPFCsSF6
Health impacts:PM (Loss in life expectancy)
O3 (Premature mortality)
Vegetation damage:O3 (AOT40/fluxes)
Acidification(Excess of critical loads)
Eutrophication(Excess of critical loads)
Climate impacts:Long-term (GWP100)
() () () () () ()
Near-term forcing () () ()
Carbon depositionto the Arctic and glaciers
The GAINS multi-pollutant/multi-effect framework to assess co-benefits of GHG mitigation
1. Interactions seen from a climate change perspective
IPCC AR4: Focus on the mitigation of long-lived GHGs:
“There are significant co-benefits of CO2 mitigation on human health, crops and ecosystems through lower emissions of air pollutants.”
Results for Annex I parties of UNFCCC, 2020Source: IIASA GAINShttp://gains.iiasa.ac.at
2. Interactions seen from an air quality perspective:Well-designed air pollution control strategies can also reduce GHG emissions
Emission control costs for reducing PM health impacts in China by 50%
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
Using only airpollution control
measures
Using air pollutioncontrol measures
and GHG measuressimultaneously
Em
issi
on c
ontr
ol c
osts
(%
of G
DP
(PPP
) in
203
0)
PM controls,households
PM end-of-pipe measures
NOx end-of-pipe measures
SO2 end-of-pipe measures
Co-generation
Energy efficiency, industry
Energy efficiency, households
Electricity savings
-8% CO2
Source: GAINS-Asiahttp://gains.iiasa.ac.at
Least-cost portfolio of conventional air pollution
control measures
Source: UNEP Black Carbon Assessment, forthcoming 2011
Reference scenario: IEA World Energy Outlook 2009
CO2 measures: IEA 450 ppm scenario 2009
Temperature increase in the near-term is determined by:
• CO2 in the atmosphere as a result of historic emissions of CO2
• Change in emissions of short-lived substances, esp. co-control of SO2
(leads to warming)
However, control of long-lived GHGs is unlikely to reduce
temperature increase in the near-term
Global temperature 1900-2070
Source: UNEP Black Carbon Assessment, 2011
Reference scenario IEA World Energy Outlook 2009
CO2 measures IEA 450 ppm scenario 2009
Near-term measuresIIASA set of 16 measures for CH4 and black carbon
CO2 + Near-term measures
Together with aggressive CO2 strategies, they increase chances to stay below the 2º targetGlobal temperature 1900-2070
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Concentrated solar power
2009 EU feed-in tariffs2009 global fossil fuel subsidies
€ 15 billion subsidy€ 425 billion subsidy
0
2
4
6
8
10
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
Annual subsidy (billion
€) € 61 billion total subsidy
15% return on capital
4910%
247%
225%
Williges et al., Energy Policy, 2010
Subsidies required to make Concentrated Solar Power competitive in Northern Africa are relatively small
Damerau et al., Energy Policy, 2011
Renewable technology choices also affect water consumption Conclusions
• IIASA is a top international research institute– Top researchers from all over the world– Broad international membership (academies) on 5 continents– Interdisciplinary– Focussed on global and universal problems:
• Climate and Energy• Food and Water• Poverty and Equity• AND: Drivers, Governance, Methods of Systems Analysis
• Energy and climate research– Integrated modelling approaches– Focus on technologies and consumers – GHG mitigation and co-benefits health, and relation to energy
access, water, etc
www.iiasa.ac.at
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