←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National.

←North Star

New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility

Rates: 2001-2009

Brady E. Hamilton

National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National Conference on Health

StatisticsAugust 6-8, 2012

Renaissance Washington DC999 Ninth Street NW

Washington, District of Columbia

1

Acknowledgements:

Sally C. CurtinSharon KirmeyerJoyce A. Martin T.J. MathewsMichelle J.K. OstermanYashodhara PatelElizabeth C. WilsonStephanie J. Ventura

2

Why revise vital rates?

3

To provide more accurate birth and fertility rates incorporating

the latest census data.

4

Postcensal population estimates: estimates of the population made for the years following a census, before the next census has been taken (i.e., the old, original, or unrevised estimates).

Intercensal population estimates: estimates made for years between two consecutive decennial censuses (i.e., the new or revised estimates).

NOTE: Postcensal population estimates shown in this presentation are those of the stated data (or “vintage”) year.

5

Comparison of intercensal and postcensal U.S. population

estimates

6

260

270

280

290

300

310

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Po

pu

lati

on

in m

illi

on

s

Year

Estimates of total population based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2000-2009

Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)

Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.

0

7

0

100

200

300

400

All races and origins Non-Hispanic White

Po

pu

lati

on

in m

illi

on

sEstimates of total population by race and Hispanic origin based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009

Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)

Δ: -0.235 million

Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.

-2.167 million

8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Non-Hispanic Black AIAN API Hispanic

Po

pu

lati

on

in m

illi

on

sEstimates of total population by race and Hispanic origin based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009 (continued)

Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)

+0.908 million

Δ: +0.249 million

+0.628 million

+1.085 million

Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.

9

61.0

61.5

62.0

62.5

63.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Po

pu

lati

on

in m

illi

on

s

Year

Population estimates of women age 15-44 based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2000-2009

Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)

0.0

Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.

10

0

20

40

60

80

All races and origins Non-Hispanic White

Po

pu

lati

on

in m

illi

on

sPopulation estimates of women age 15-44 by race and Hispanic origin based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009

Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)

Δ: +0.425 million

Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.

-0.766 million

11

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Non-Hispanic Black AIAN API Hispanic

Po

pu

lati

on

in m

illi

on

sPopulation estimates of women age 15-44 by race and Hispanic origin based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009 (continued)

Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)

+0.833 million

Δ: +0.003 million

+0.165 million

+0.445 million

Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.

12

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

10-14 15-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49

Po

pu

lati

on

in m

illi

on

s

Age (years)

Population estimates of women age 10-49 based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009

Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)

0

Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.

13

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

10-14 15-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49

Po

pu

lati

on

in t

en t

ho

usa

nd

s

Age (years)

Population estimates off AIAN women age 10-49 based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009

Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)

0

Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.

14

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10-14 15-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49

Po

pu

lati

on

in t

en t

ho

usa

nd

s

Age (years)

Population estimates of API women age 10-49 based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009

Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)

0

Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.

15

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

10-14 15-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49

Po

pu

lati

on

in m

illi

on

s

Age (years)

Population estimates of Hispanic women age 10-49 based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009

Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)

Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.

16

Comparison of intercensal- and postcensal-based U.S. birth

and fertility rates

Note:

Numerator (i.e., same number of births)

Denominator (i.e., different population estimates)

17

18

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Rat

e p

er 1

,000

Year

Crude birth rate based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2000-2009

Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)

0

Sources: Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Ventura SJ. Births: Preliminary data for 2010. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 2. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.

19

11.0

15.8

13.9

16.2

20.6

11.2

15.7

11.8

15.1

20.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

Non-HispanicWhite

Non-HispanicBlack

AIAN API Hispanic

Rat

e p

er 1

,000

Crude birth rate by race and Hispanic origin based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009

Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)

Sources: Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Ventura SJ. Births: Preliminary data for 2010. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 2. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.

20

55

60

65

70

75

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Rat

e p

er 1

,000

wo

men

ag

ed 1

5-4

4

Year

General fertility rate based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2000-2009

Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)

0

Sources: Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Ventura SJ. Births: Preliminary data for 2010. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 2. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.

21

58.4

68.962.8

68.7

93.3

59.6

68.9

51.7

61.3

86.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Non-HispanicWhite

Non-HispanicBlack

AIAN API Hispanic

Rat

e p

er 1

,000

wo

men

ag

e 15

-44

in s

pec

ifie

d g

rou

pGeneral fertility rate by race and Hispanic origin based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009

Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)

Sources: Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Ventura SJ. Births: Preliminary data for 2010. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 2. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.

22

50

55

60

65

70

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Ra

te p

er

1,0

00

wo

me

n a

ge

d 1

5-4

4

Year

General fertility rate for non-Hispanic white women based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2000-2009

Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)

0

Sources: Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Ventura SJ. Births: Preliminary data for 2010. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 2. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.

23

65

75

85

95

105

115

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Ra

te p

er

1,0

00

wo

me

n a

ge

d 1

5-4

4

Year

General fertility rate for Hispanic women based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2000-2009

Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)

0

Sources: Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Ventura SJ. Births: Preliminary data for 2010. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 2. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.

24

45

50

55

60

65

70

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Ra

te p

er

1,0

00

wo

me

n a

ge

d 1

5-4

4

Year

General fertility rate for AIAN women based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2000-2009

Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)

0

Sources: Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Ventura SJ. Births: Preliminary data for 2010. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 2. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.

25

MT

WY

ID

WA

OR

NV

UT

CA

AZ

ND

SD

NE

CO

NM

TX

OK

KS

AR

LA

MO

IA

MN

WI

IL IN

KY

TN

MS AL GA

FL

SC

NC

VAWV

OH

MI

NY

PA

MDDE

NJ

CT RI

MA

ME

VTNH

AK

HI

Fertility rate for women age 15-44 by state based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009

No difference

Lower

Higher

Sources: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.

26

MT

WY

ID

WA

OR

NV

UT

CA

AZ

ND

SD

NE

CO

NM

TX

OK

KS

AR

LA

MO

IA

MN

WI

IL IN

KY

TN

MS AL GA

FL

SC

NC

VAWV

OH

MI

NY

PA

MDDE

NJ

CT RI

MA

ME

VTNH

AK

HI

Birth rate for women age 15-19 by state based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009

No difference

Lower

Higher

Sources: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.

27

Summary:

Differences between birth and fertility rates based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses vary by age, race, Hispanic origin, and area population group.

The disparity in revised (2010-based) birth and fertility rates among population groups is generally smaller than the unrevised (2000-based) rates.

28

Website address:

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/about/major/dvs/popbridge/popbridge.htm

29