North dakotafinal

Leah KrevitRice University

The Rest of Us

Stephen Abram, MLS, Gale Cengage Learning

Minnesota/ North Dakota / South Dakota LibrariesOct. 19-20, 2010

Catching the Vision:

The Library in 2020

Thank you for inviting me!

I want to share:Major upcoming trends and challenges in Technology, Communities and Librarians

Special Surveys of Library UseNew National Data on Database Use

And I want to meet you.

GOOG

6 Things have Changed . . . A LOT!

1. Cardholders, Users, Members, Patrons, Clients, Customers, Learners, Students, Teachers, Professors

2. Books3. Media4. Mobility5. Collections6. Libraries

The History of Unintended

Consequences & Unpredictability

“The Internet has now progressed to its infancy”

How can I lead my library and my community or

institution to be ready for the next 10 years?

People

A 1965 iPhone

Can libraries keep up with change?

Can you recall buying a 45? Can you recall dials on TVs? Can you recall dialling?

What We Never Really Knew Before (US/Canada)

27% of our users are under 18. 59% are female. 29% are college students. 5% are professors and 6% are teachers. On any given day, 35% of our users are there for the

very first time! Only 29% found the databases via the library website. 59% found what they were looking for on their first

search. 72% trusted our content more than what they found

on Google. But, 81% still use Google.

We often believe a lot

that isn’t true.

People are Changing

• Demographic– south, Millennial, Boomer,+• IQ Increases• Increased educational attainment & engagement• eBooks outsell hard cover books, and will outsell

paperbacks soon (2011)• Some libraries are crediting most cardholder growth

to e-book accessibility• eBooks usage is largely middle-aged.• Some sectors are slyly very tech-dominated (farming,

cattle, trucking, natural resources…)

People Have Changed

• Twitter & Facebook are dominated by the middle aged

• Gaming too. . . Mothers in their 30’s• Social networks fastest growing populations are

seniors and will be more international and less urban and English.

• Personal device proliferation• Mobile data usage is growing beyond youth

very quickly, workplace use is huge

Have Students Changed

?

Me

My son: Zachary

My daughter: Sydney

NextGen Differences

Increase in IQ - 15-20 PointsBrain & Developmental Changes

Eye Movement Changes

Massive Behavioural ChangesMajor Decline in Crime Rates – 65%

+But still a 70% behavior overlap

with Boomers (see my book chapter)

Discovery & Ideas

Has the future changed?Has our future changed?

COWS, etc.

Diabetes Online

Yes, Stephen did just say Lizard Spit

The Future Discovered• Stem Cells• fMRI and The Brain• Cloning• Trucking and GPS• Wind and other energy• Nanotechnology• Robotics• Massive Book Digitization• Music• Translation• Streaming Media• Seed Bank

Inter-disciplinaryCross-disciplinary

Integrated

2020

Books

Pay Real AttentionTo Google Editions&Google SettlementAmazonGutenbergEtc.

Is Our FocusOn BooksAnd PublicImage Limiting OurFuture Success?

A window of opportunity

Do we really care about containers?Stone – Wax – Scrolls – Books – Next...

Paper -- SchmpaperDigital – SchmidgitalHolograph . . . Pffft!

TransmogrifyingContainers

Will Libraries be Device Agnostic?

iPads, Kobos,

Kindles, Nooks, eDGe,

and Mobile Phones?

Borders Kobo, B&N Nook, Amazon Kindle, Apple iPad, Sony, etc. . . .

Reinvention, Creativity, Renaissance

• eBooks and Books• Concept of place• Privacy• Colour & Animation• Chapters and Paragraph (anthologies, poems, short stories)• Video• Wireless opportunity• Tracking• Pedagogy• Boundarylessness• Connect to the author or team• Added features and commentary• Connect to book clubs, discussions, etc.

2020

Media

The Move to Streaming

• Like wax, vinyl and tape before it CD and DVD will decline to very small niche markets

• Blockbuster’s bankruptcy and the decline of local independent rental stores is a canary in the mine

• Many PL’s confuse the current uptick with a LT trend.

• Music and Video entertainment vs. programs related to hobbies, children, etc.

• Educational video is an emerging sector integrated very tightly into content

Reinvention, Creativity, Renaissance

• Streaming Media on demand• Definition of ‘use’.• Concept of place• Concept of News and Entertainment• End of physical format (DVD, tape, etc.)• Self published animation & video• Commentary, Reviews and Collectors• Wireless opportunity• Tracking• Pedagogy• Boundarylessness• End of collections as we know them • Beginning of media bibliography

Mobility

Broadband

• You must clearly understand the latest FCC Whitespace Broadband Decision – THIS IS TRANSFORMATIONAL

• Local wired• To the Home and workplace• Wireless as a business strategy (Starbucks)• Mobile dominates• Largest generation

& AMAZON

Reinvention, Creativity, Renaissance

• Mobility• Concept of place – Adopt a hybrid mindset• Social animation and Sharing• Convergence on steroids• Wireless opportunity• Tracking• Pedagogy and Learning• Extreme demand

Collections

An New Merging Model• Just in case, Just in time, just for me models are now

ripe for replacement with• Fit for Purpose

– Community– Learning– Entertainment– Social / Clubs– Research

• Beginning of the end for the dominance of out-of-context Megadatabases –

• Think meals vs. grocery stores

Growing Online and Virtual Use

• Experience Models• Widgets• API’s• SEO• Google Analytics• Geo-IP• ForeSee• Satisfaction data AND Statistics – Measure too

Driving User to the Library

• Encyclopedia.com• HighBeam & Questia• WorldCat• AccessMyLibrary iPhone App for

public, school and higher ed – iPhone and Droid!

• Geo-IP features and measures• Watch for more . . .?

Reinvention, Creativity, Renaissance

• Collections• Concept of place• Ownership mutates• Personal curation and celebrity curators• Wireless opportunity• Tracking• Targeting collections • Portalization: Knowledge Portals, Learning portals

2020

LibrariesApproaching the End Game

The MatrixBuild it or buy it?

I my customers

NOT ENOUGH

What is the top strategic positioning for libraries

Hint – not collections

Trans-LiteracyMove beyond reading & PC skills • Reading literacy• Numeracy• Critical literacy• Social literacy• Computer literacy• Web literacy• Content literacy• Written literacy

• News literacy• Technology literacy• Information literacy• Media literacy• Adaptive literacy• Research literacy• Academic literacy• Reputation, Etc.

Reinvention, Creativity, Renaissance

• Libraries• Concept of place• Improving the quality of questions• Partnering in design of experiences• Programs predominate• Community involvement• Re-balancing needs• Addressing the divides• Promoting the talent – professional service and

programs

2020

Strategic Thinking for Libraries

1. Choosing a Future2. Setting Phased Priorities

3. Making Choices4. Taking Action

5. Doing the Next Step6. Adjusting Tactics with Experience7. Seeking Feedback and Adjusting

8. Measuring Progress

Framework for Choosing Top Priorities • Suppose that in three years:• Majority of library use will be virtual – yes even rural!• Majority of Non-fiction Book circulation will be e-

books and Fiction will split 50/50 – digital/print• All learning will be blended and continuous• DVD is circulation is dead and most other [physical

formats in decline.• Majority of questions will be virtual• Use will be 20 / 40 / 40 (in house, virtual, mobile)• Every user will be socially networked, connected and

engaged

2020

What do we need to know?• How do library databases and virtual services

compare with other web experiences?• Who are our core virtual users? Are there gaps?• Does learning happen?• What are user expectations for true satisfaction?• How does library search compare to consumer

search like Google and retail or government?• How do people find and connect with library virtual

services?• Are end users being successful in their POV?• Are they happy? Will they come back? Tell a friend?

Strategic Thinking for Libraries

1. Choosing a Future2. Setting Phased Priorities

3. Making Choices4. Taking Action

5. Doing the Next Step6. Adjusting Tactics with Experience7. Seeking Feedback and Adjusting

8. Measuring Progress

The Boomers launched mostof these digitalinitiatives. Now what are we/you going to do next?

Advance Survey Data for the Library of Virginia

Prepared by Stephen Abramand the Gale, Cengage Learning

Statistical Analysis Research Team

Reference Facet of the Library of Virginia Story

September 2010 Survey Data62 of 91 LVA library systems (68%)

I am happy to do this same survey for you at no charge

Yep – We Get Questions• Health and Wellness / Community Health / Nutrition / Diet / Recovery DIY Do It

Yourself Activities and Car Repair Genealogy Test prep (SAT, ACT, occupational tests, etc. etc.) Legal Questions (including family law, divorce, adoption, etc) Hobbies, Games and Gardening Local History Consumer reviews (Choosing a car, appliance, etc.) Homework Help (grade school) Technology Skills (software, hardware, web) Government Programs, Services and Taxation Self-help/personal development Careers (jobs, counselling, etc.) Reading Choices and recommendations, books & authors Travel and Vacation, Tourism Support Supporting College credits, Distance Education, and Adult Continuing Education Personal Finance and Investments / Financial Literacy Religion and spirituality Retirement and Seniors Services General Reference / Quick Answer Questions (e.g. telephone numbers, addresses, definitions, locations, library hours and services, etc.) Coming to America or our Community (Immigration, Moving) Book Clubs / Community Reading / Summer Reading Business. Leadership and Management Parenting and Child Development Adult Literacy / ESL Entrepreneurship and Consulting Small and Medium-sized Business Support World Cultures/Understanding Our World History Studies (Civil War, WW2, etc.) Choosing a School, Program/Degree, College or University / College Planning Finding People / Biographies

Silly me! --- I forgot language learning . . .

Top 13

The Baker’s Dozen: LVA Top 131. Health and Wellness / Community Health / Nutrition / Diet /

Recovery 2. DIY Do It Yourself Activities and Car Repair 3. Genealogy 4. Test prep (SAT, ACT, occupational tests, etc. etc.) 5. Legal Questions (including family law, divorce, adoption, etc) 6. Hobbies, Games and Gardening 7. Local History 8. Consumer reviews (Choosing a car, appliance, etc.) 9. Homework Help (grade school) 10. Technology Skills (software, hardware, web) 11. Government Programs, Services and Taxation 12. Self-help/personal development 13. Careers (jobs, counselling, etc.) 14. Readers Advisory was 14th

Gale Cengage Learning

North American Library

Customer Satisfaction Data:

All users: PL, AL, CL, SL, etc.

Year One: Aug. 2009 – Sept. 2010

What do we need to know?What are we going to do next?

What do we need to know?

• How do library databases compare with other web experiences and expectations?

• Who are our core virtual users?• What are user expectations for satisfaction?• How does library search compare to consumer

search like Google?• How do people find and connect with library virtual

services?• What should we ‘fix’ as a first priority?• Are end users being successful in their POV?• Are they happy? Will they come back? Tell a friend?

Gale Library Databases Compare

Very Well to Other

Web Experiences

Digging Into Satisfaction  3 4 5 9 6 8 7 2 1    

High School Student

Univers/ College Student Librar’n

Other, please specify Teacher

Other Profess-

ionalProfess-

or

Middle School Student

Elementary

School Student Overall  

  Responses: 3,043 2,920 1,570 709 576 576 488 477 148 10,507  

    29% 28% 15% 7% 5% 5% 5% 5% 1%    

Content 70 77 79 69 77 74 67 68 40 73

Look and Feel 64 74 74 64 72 70 61 63 37 68

Navigation 65 71 69 60 69 66 60 63 45 66

Search 61 73 73 60 71 67 59 59 35 66

Site Performance

73 79 77 72 77 76 68 72 52 75

Satisfaction 63 74 72 60 72 66 59 62 35 67

Likelihood to Return

72 82 85 71 82 78 66 69 36 76

Primary Resource

63 73 68 56 70 60 51 60 33 65

Recommend 63 78 83 66 80 72 63 61 36 71

Users willReturn and

RecommendOnce Hooked

LibrarySearch

Needs toImprove

Who uses e-Resources?

The Core User For Library

E-Resourcesis Clear

Database UsersAre BeingSuccessful

There are Training and

CommunicationOpportunities

More Males UseLibrary

DatabasesThan Usual

There is Not A DemographicSwing in Online

Usage

Library UsersTrust Library

DatabasesMore.

School is the Sweet Spot –

But Other UsersAbound Too.

Library’s Natural Allies Are Big Users

& PotentialPartners.

Wow! Only 29% ofUsers Find

E-Resources Through Our

Websites.

OMG - 39% of YourUsers Are in Your

Databases for For the VeryFirst Time!

Your Users Will

Recommend Your

Databases

Your Users Will

Recommend Your

Databases

Your Users Respect

Your DatabasesAs Primary

Sources

Your Users Are

Likely toReturn

Your Users Evaluate

Your Services as Meeting

Expectations.

There’s Great News!We have Room forImprovement BUT

Library Databases Compete Very Well with User Expectations and Needs Fulfillment.

The School Cycle Drives Many Usage

Scenarios

Upcoming Gale Surveys

CATS DOGSCATS

& DOGS

Strategic Implications

• Program(s) Planning Models• Tying Collections and Programs more Tightly

Together to Enhance and Protect Both• Priority Setting for 5 Years• Developing Collaborative Communication and

Promotion Plans • Developing Collaborative and Shared Staff and

User Training Models• Holding Your Heads High

Community

Stories

Relationships

Stories

Personalization

Differentiate

Comfort

Serve Everyone!

The power of libraries

Speak Out!

Surprise Them!

Trust Experiments!

It Takes A Team: Work Together & Pick Each Other Up

Stephen Abram, MLS, FSLAVP strategic partnerships and markets

Cengage Learning (Gale)Cel: 416-669-4855

stephen.abram@cengage.comStephen’s Lighthouse Blog

http://stephenslighthouse.comFacebook: Stephen Abram

LinkedIn / Plaxo: Stephen AbramTwitter: sabram

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