Leah Krevit Rice University The Rest of Us Stephen Abram, MLS, Gale Cengage Learning Minnesota/ North Dakota / South Dakota Libraries Oct. 19-20, 2010 Catching the Vision: The Library in 2020
Nov 01, 2014
Leah KrevitRice University
The Rest of Us
Stephen Abram, MLS, Gale Cengage Learning
Minnesota/ North Dakota / South Dakota LibrariesOct. 19-20, 2010
Catching the Vision:
The Library in 2020
Thank you for inviting me!
I want to share:Major upcoming trends and challenges in Technology, Communities and Librarians
Special Surveys of Library UseNew National Data on Database Use
And I want to meet you.
GOOG
6 Things have Changed . . . A LOT!
1. Cardholders, Users, Members, Patrons, Clients, Customers, Learners, Students, Teachers, Professors
2. Books3. Media4. Mobility5. Collections6. Libraries
The History of Unintended
Consequences & Unpredictability
“The Internet has now progressed to its infancy”
How can I lead my library and my community or
institution to be ready for the next 10 years?
People
A 1965 iPhone
Can libraries keep up with change?
Can you recall buying a 45? Can you recall dials on TVs? Can you recall dialling?
What We Never Really Knew Before (US/Canada)
27% of our users are under 18. 59% are female. 29% are college students. 5% are professors and 6% are teachers. On any given day, 35% of our users are there for the
very first time! Only 29% found the databases via the library website. 59% found what they were looking for on their first
search. 72% trusted our content more than what they found
on Google. But, 81% still use Google.
We often believe a lot
that isn’t true.
People are Changing
• Demographic– south, Millennial, Boomer,+• IQ Increases• Increased educational attainment & engagement• eBooks outsell hard cover books, and will outsell
paperbacks soon (2011)• Some libraries are crediting most cardholder growth
to e-book accessibility• eBooks usage is largely middle-aged.• Some sectors are slyly very tech-dominated (farming,
cattle, trucking, natural resources…)
People Have Changed
• Twitter & Facebook are dominated by the middle aged
• Gaming too. . . Mothers in their 30’s• Social networks fastest growing populations are
seniors and will be more international and less urban and English.
• Personal device proliferation• Mobile data usage is growing beyond youth
very quickly, workplace use is huge
Have Students Changed
?
Me
My son: Zachary
My daughter: Sydney
NextGen Differences
Increase in IQ - 15-20 PointsBrain & Developmental Changes
Eye Movement Changes
Massive Behavioural ChangesMajor Decline in Crime Rates – 65%
+But still a 70% behavior overlap
with Boomers (see my book chapter)
Discovery & Ideas
Has the future changed?Has our future changed?
COWS, etc.
Diabetes Online
Yes, Stephen did just say Lizard Spit
The Future Discovered• Stem Cells• fMRI and The Brain• Cloning• Trucking and GPS• Wind and other energy• Nanotechnology• Robotics• Massive Book Digitization• Music• Translation• Streaming Media• Seed Bank
Inter-disciplinaryCross-disciplinary
Integrated
2020
Books
Pay Real AttentionTo Google Editions&Google SettlementAmazonGutenbergEtc.
Is Our FocusOn BooksAnd PublicImage Limiting OurFuture Success?
A window of opportunity
Do we really care about containers?Stone – Wax – Scrolls – Books – Next...
Paper -- SchmpaperDigital – SchmidgitalHolograph . . . Pffft!
TransmogrifyingContainers
Will Libraries be Device Agnostic?
iPads, Kobos,
Kindles, Nooks, eDGe,
and Mobile Phones?
Borders Kobo, B&N Nook, Amazon Kindle, Apple iPad, Sony, etc. . . .
Reinvention, Creativity, Renaissance
• eBooks and Books• Concept of place• Privacy• Colour & Animation• Chapters and Paragraph (anthologies, poems, short stories)• Video• Wireless opportunity• Tracking• Pedagogy• Boundarylessness• Connect to the author or team• Added features and commentary• Connect to book clubs, discussions, etc.
2020
Media
The Move to Streaming
• Like wax, vinyl and tape before it CD and DVD will decline to very small niche markets
• Blockbuster’s bankruptcy and the decline of local independent rental stores is a canary in the mine
• Many PL’s confuse the current uptick with a LT trend.
• Music and Video entertainment vs. programs related to hobbies, children, etc.
• Educational video is an emerging sector integrated very tightly into content
Reinvention, Creativity, Renaissance
• Streaming Media on demand• Definition of ‘use’.• Concept of place• Concept of News and Entertainment• End of physical format (DVD, tape, etc.)• Self published animation & video• Commentary, Reviews and Collectors• Wireless opportunity• Tracking• Pedagogy• Boundarylessness• End of collections as we know them • Beginning of media bibliography
Mobility
Broadband
• You must clearly understand the latest FCC Whitespace Broadband Decision – THIS IS TRANSFORMATIONAL
• Local wired• To the Home and workplace• Wireless as a business strategy (Starbucks)• Mobile dominates• Largest generation
& AMAZON
Reinvention, Creativity, Renaissance
• Mobility• Concept of place – Adopt a hybrid mindset• Social animation and Sharing• Convergence on steroids• Wireless opportunity• Tracking• Pedagogy and Learning• Extreme demand
Collections
An New Merging Model• Just in case, Just in time, just for me models are now
ripe for replacement with• Fit for Purpose
– Community– Learning– Entertainment– Social / Clubs– Research
• Beginning of the end for the dominance of out-of-context Megadatabases –
• Think meals vs. grocery stores
Growing Online and Virtual Use
• Experience Models• Widgets• API’s• SEO• Google Analytics• Geo-IP• ForeSee• Satisfaction data AND Statistics – Measure too
Driving User to the Library
• Encyclopedia.com• HighBeam & Questia• WorldCat• AccessMyLibrary iPhone App for
public, school and higher ed – iPhone and Droid!
• Geo-IP features and measures• Watch for more . . .?
Reinvention, Creativity, Renaissance
• Collections• Concept of place• Ownership mutates• Personal curation and celebrity curators• Wireless opportunity• Tracking• Targeting collections • Portalization: Knowledge Portals, Learning portals
2020
LibrariesApproaching the End Game
The MatrixBuild it or buy it?
I my customers
NOT ENOUGH
What is the top strategic positioning for libraries
Hint – not collections
Trans-LiteracyMove beyond reading & PC skills • Reading literacy• Numeracy• Critical literacy• Social literacy• Computer literacy• Web literacy• Content literacy• Written literacy
• News literacy• Technology literacy• Information literacy• Media literacy• Adaptive literacy• Research literacy• Academic literacy• Reputation, Etc.
Reinvention, Creativity, Renaissance
• Libraries• Concept of place• Improving the quality of questions• Partnering in design of experiences• Programs predominate• Community involvement• Re-balancing needs• Addressing the divides• Promoting the talent – professional service and
programs
2020
Strategic Thinking for Libraries
1. Choosing a Future2. Setting Phased Priorities
3. Making Choices4. Taking Action
5. Doing the Next Step6. Adjusting Tactics with Experience7. Seeking Feedback and Adjusting
8. Measuring Progress
Framework for Choosing Top Priorities • Suppose that in three years:• Majority of library use will be virtual – yes even rural!• Majority of Non-fiction Book circulation will be e-
books and Fiction will split 50/50 – digital/print• All learning will be blended and continuous• DVD is circulation is dead and most other [physical
formats in decline.• Majority of questions will be virtual• Use will be 20 / 40 / 40 (in house, virtual, mobile)• Every user will be socially networked, connected and
engaged
2020
What do we need to know?• How do library databases and virtual services
compare with other web experiences?• Who are our core virtual users? Are there gaps?• Does learning happen?• What are user expectations for true satisfaction?• How does library search compare to consumer
search like Google and retail or government?• How do people find and connect with library virtual
services?• Are end users being successful in their POV?• Are they happy? Will they come back? Tell a friend?
Strategic Thinking for Libraries
1. Choosing a Future2. Setting Phased Priorities
3. Making Choices4. Taking Action
5. Doing the Next Step6. Adjusting Tactics with Experience7. Seeking Feedback and Adjusting
8. Measuring Progress
The Boomers launched mostof these digitalinitiatives. Now what are we/you going to do next?
Advance Survey Data for the Library of Virginia
Prepared by Stephen Abramand the Gale, Cengage Learning
Statistical Analysis Research Team
Reference Facet of the Library of Virginia Story
September 2010 Survey Data62 of 91 LVA library systems (68%)
I am happy to do this same survey for you at no charge
Yep – We Get Questions• Health and Wellness / Community Health / Nutrition / Diet / Recovery DIY Do It
Yourself Activities and Car Repair Genealogy Test prep (SAT, ACT, occupational tests, etc. etc.) Legal Questions (including family law, divorce, adoption, etc) Hobbies, Games and Gardening Local History Consumer reviews (Choosing a car, appliance, etc.) Homework Help (grade school) Technology Skills (software, hardware, web) Government Programs, Services and Taxation Self-help/personal development Careers (jobs, counselling, etc.) Reading Choices and recommendations, books & authors Travel and Vacation, Tourism Support Supporting College credits, Distance Education, and Adult Continuing Education Personal Finance and Investments / Financial Literacy Religion and spirituality Retirement and Seniors Services General Reference / Quick Answer Questions (e.g. telephone numbers, addresses, definitions, locations, library hours and services, etc.) Coming to America or our Community (Immigration, Moving) Book Clubs / Community Reading / Summer Reading Business. Leadership and Management Parenting and Child Development Adult Literacy / ESL Entrepreneurship and Consulting Small and Medium-sized Business Support World Cultures/Understanding Our World History Studies (Civil War, WW2, etc.) Choosing a School, Program/Degree, College or University / College Planning Finding People / Biographies
Silly me! --- I forgot language learning . . .
Top 13
The Baker’s Dozen: LVA Top 131. Health and Wellness / Community Health / Nutrition / Diet /
Recovery 2. DIY Do It Yourself Activities and Car Repair 3. Genealogy 4. Test prep (SAT, ACT, occupational tests, etc. etc.) 5. Legal Questions (including family law, divorce, adoption, etc) 6. Hobbies, Games and Gardening 7. Local History 8. Consumer reviews (Choosing a car, appliance, etc.) 9. Homework Help (grade school) 10. Technology Skills (software, hardware, web) 11. Government Programs, Services and Taxation 12. Self-help/personal development 13. Careers (jobs, counselling, etc.) 14. Readers Advisory was 14th
Gale Cengage Learning
North American Library
Customer Satisfaction Data:
All users: PL, AL, CL, SL, etc.
Year One: Aug. 2009 – Sept. 2010
What do we need to know?What are we going to do next?
What do we need to know?
• How do library databases compare with other web experiences and expectations?
• Who are our core virtual users?• What are user expectations for satisfaction?• How does library search compare to consumer
search like Google?• How do people find and connect with library virtual
services?• What should we ‘fix’ as a first priority?• Are end users being successful in their POV?• Are they happy? Will they come back? Tell a friend?
Gale Library Databases Compare
Very Well to Other
Web Experiences
Digging Into Satisfaction 3 4 5 9 6 8 7 2 1
High School Student
Univers/ College Student Librar’n
Other, please specify Teacher
Other Profess-
ionalProfess-
or
Middle School Student
Elementary
School Student Overall
Responses: 3,043 2,920 1,570 709 576 576 488 477 148 10,507
29% 28% 15% 7% 5% 5% 5% 5% 1%
Content 70 77 79 69 77 74 67 68 40 73
Look and Feel 64 74 74 64 72 70 61 63 37 68
Navigation 65 71 69 60 69 66 60 63 45 66
Search 61 73 73 60 71 67 59 59 35 66
Site Performance
73 79 77 72 77 76 68 72 52 75
Satisfaction 63 74 72 60 72 66 59 62 35 67
Likelihood to Return
72 82 85 71 82 78 66 69 36 76
Primary Resource
63 73 68 56 70 60 51 60 33 65
Recommend 63 78 83 66 80 72 63 61 36 71
Users willReturn and
RecommendOnce Hooked
LibrarySearch
Needs toImprove
Who uses e-Resources?
The Core User For Library
E-Resourcesis Clear
Database UsersAre BeingSuccessful
There are Training and
CommunicationOpportunities
More Males UseLibrary
DatabasesThan Usual
There is Not A DemographicSwing in Online
Usage
Library UsersTrust Library
DatabasesMore.
School is the Sweet Spot –
But Other UsersAbound Too.
Library’s Natural Allies Are Big Users
& PotentialPartners.
Wow! Only 29% ofUsers Find
E-Resources Through Our
Websites.
OMG - 39% of YourUsers Are in Your
Databases for For the VeryFirst Time!
Your Users Will
Recommend Your
Databases
Your Users Will
Recommend Your
Databases
Your Users Respect
Your DatabasesAs Primary
Sources
Your Users Are
Likely toReturn
Your Users Evaluate
Your Services as Meeting
Expectations.
There’s Great News!We have Room forImprovement BUT
Library Databases Compete Very Well with User Expectations and Needs Fulfillment.
The School Cycle Drives Many Usage
Scenarios
Upcoming Gale Surveys
CATS DOGSCATS
& DOGS
Strategic Implications
• Program(s) Planning Models• Tying Collections and Programs more Tightly
Together to Enhance and Protect Both• Priority Setting for 5 Years• Developing Collaborative Communication and
Promotion Plans • Developing Collaborative and Shared Staff and
User Training Models• Holding Your Heads High
Community
Stories
Relationships
Stories
Personalization
Differentiate
Comfort
Serve Everyone!
The power of libraries
Speak Out!
Surprise Them!
Trust Experiments!
It Takes A Team: Work Together & Pick Each Other Up
Stephen Abram, MLS, FSLAVP strategic partnerships and markets
Cengage Learning (Gale)Cel: 416-669-4855
[email protected]’s Lighthouse Blog
http://stephenslighthouse.comFacebook: Stephen Abram
LinkedIn / Plaxo: Stephen AbramTwitter: sabram
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