NAVSEA Common Cost Model - ACEIT | Home · NCCM Overview: Ship Estimating Single hull and multiple hull analysis, including multi-yard “splits”. Standard WBS for reporting, covering
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Tecolote Research, Inc.
January 2008January 2008
NAVSEA Common Cost ModelOn-The-Fly “ACE Estimates” Via the Web
John McGahan
NAVSEA Common Cost ModelNAVSEA Common Cost ModelOnOn--TheThe--Fly Fly ““ACE EstimatesACE Estimates”” Via the WebVia the Web
John McGahanJohn McGahan
NCCM Overview: Ship Estimating
“Innovative” ACE Estimate Structure
Key ACEIT Technologies
Demonstration
NCCM Overview: Ship EstimatingNCCM Overview: Ship EstimatingNCCM Overview: Ship Estimating
Single hull and multiple hull analysis, including multi-yard “splits”.
Standard WBS for reporting, covering full life cycle.
Analyst defines any number of lower level elements to map to standard WBS. Some standard WBS elements are estimated as simple factors of other elements.
Procurement element estimates are based on UPA methods.R&D, GFE, O&S and Disposal through-puts are total TY $ by Hull.
NCCM provides access to “system level” tables, including FPRA, inflation, CER Libraries, and ASSET Design Data.
Embedded, standard risk analysis method.
NCCM Overview: Standard WBSNCCM Overview: Standard WBSNCCM Overview: Standard WBS
TY Throughputs By Hull
NCCM Overview: PrimaryEstimating Method
NCCM Overview: PrimaryNCCM Overview: PrimaryEstimating Method Estimating Method
Cost Element Manhour Formula
Weight * Tech Fact * LCER * Adjustment * Lrn Fact OR Throughput
Weight Adjustment Labor Hoursper LTon
Overall Adjustment for Productivity
Cost Element Labor Cost Formula
Labor Hours * Labor Rate * OH Rate * FCM
Forward Price Labor RateOr User Override Overhead & FCM
Learning Factor
Overall Material Adjustment Factor
Cost Element Material Cost Formula
Weight * Tech Fact * MCER * Adjustment * Inflation Adjustment
Material $ per LTon
What’s So Cool About NCCM?WhatWhat’’s So Cool About NCCM?s So Cool About NCCM?
Browser-based, multi-user system.No client/desktop components.All data, models inputs, and estimates results stored and maintained in server database.
NCCM not running pre-built, canned ACE modelOther browser-based systems using ACE models have run what-if drills on existing models (like POST on the desktop).NCCM builds model (ACE session) on-the-fly, on the server.
Typically NCCM builds session, calculates session, extracts results for reporting, and then throws the session away.Or, the user can request/extract a copy of the session.
Why do it this way?
Why Build On-The-Fly ACE Sessions
Why Build OnWhy Build On--TheThe--Fly Fly ACE SessionsACE Sessions
Requirement: Need to be able to estimate an arbitrary list of elements.Each NCCM estimate has a unique Project Element List.Each element is mapped to a standard “reporting” WBS element.In the area of primary interest (procurement weight groups 1 – 7), estimators will frequently estimate at different indent levels (and sometime both parent and child levels).
Example
How do you do this in ACE…?
ACE Session StructureACE Session StructureACE Session StructureNCCM starts with a “session template”
Static Standard WBS for reporting (labor hour, labor $, material $, etc); 2000+ rows.SUMIF used to roll-up project elements results (labor, materials, etc) to Standard WBS.Implement standard estimating methods/forms (e.g., Plans).
Template extract:
Note duplicate rows!
ACE Session StructureACE Session StructureACE Session StructureNCCM expands template to include project element inputs and methods.
Heavy utilization of matrix structures in ACE.Repeated sections organized around the project WBS.Includes estimating inputs, CERs/factors, intermediate calculation, risk, etc.
Customized session extract:
Key ACEIT TechnologiesKey ACEIT TechnologiesKey ACEIT Technologies
ACE Engine / API: Provides ACE functionality in on Web Server; users don’t see ACE.Provides complete programmatic control over ACE session.
NCCM calculations governed largely defined by templateReduced development effort and simplified maintenance
ACE engine (including many ACEIT 7.1 features)SUMIFFlexible interpretation of point estimateUser-defined / custom distributions
Allows user to model any distributionAlso used in heuristic process to combine risk results across hulls (class-level summary results)
Tornado and variance chartsResidual benefit: Developed mini “stand-alone” web utility for visual display of risk input distributions.
NCCM DemoNCCM DemoNCCM Demo
Organized around key estimating steps.Access on-line NCCM CER library.Export/Import model inputs to/from Excel, supporting desktop estimate maintenance.
NCCM Demo NCCM Demo NCCM Demo
Define Project WBS
Insert “standard WBS elements”to define mappingRe-label elements as needed
NCCM Demo NCCM Demo NCCM Demo
Identify hulls (and partial hulls) by yard.Define implementation schedule.Set learning curve assumptions.
NCCM Demo NCCM Demo NCCM Demo
Select Forward Price Rate Agreement tables for yards.Review calculated composite rates by hull.Override rates and factors as needed.
NCCM Demo NCCM Demo NCCM Demo Define Technical Data (weights) for Project Elements
Import from engineering systemOverride weights
Allows multiple Technical Data “sets” for different hulls
NCCM Demo NCCM Demo NCCM Demo
Calculate with or without risk.Download copy of generated ACE session for individual hulls.
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