Transcript
ADAPTATION AND SILVICULTURAL DECISION-MAKING
SRS / NRS / RMRSChippewa NFSan Juan NFFlathead NF
Flathead National ForestJune 28, 2016
Linda Nagel, Professor & Department HeadForest & Rangeland StewardshipColorado State University
Adaptation and Mitigation = Synergistic
Mitigation Adaptation
Sequester Carbon in Trees, Forests, and Products
Conserve Carbon Stocks Strengthen Adaptability of Forest-Dependent Communities
Create Better-Adapted Forests
Mitigation
Modified from FAO 2010 2
Adaptation and Mitigation DefinedADAPTATION• Adjustment of human or natural systems in response to climate change
– Position forests to become more healthy, resistant, & resilient– Facilitate ecosystem responses to climate change when appropriate
MITIGATION• Human activities to reduce the effects of climate change by reducing sources and enhancing sinks of greenhouse gases
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What actions can be taken toenhance the ability of a system to cope with change
andmeet goals and objectives?
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Desired Future Condition
TIME
Climate-Driven Changes
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Desired Future Condition
TIME
Climate ChangeTrajectory
Climate-Driven Changes
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Uncertainty and RiskDesign actions that are robust across a range of potential future conditions
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Option #1 – ResistanceImprove the defenses of the forest against anticipated changes or directly defend the forest against disturbance in order to maintain relatively unchanged conditions
• Short-term• High-value
Millar et al. 2007, 2008 8
Option #1 – ResistanceDesired Future Condition
TIME
Climate ChangeTrajectory
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Option #2 – ResilienceAccommodate some degree of change, but encourage a return to a prior condition after disturbance
Millar et al. 2007, 2008
Photo: USFS
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Desired Future Condition
TIME
Climate ChangeTrajectory
Option #2 – Resilience
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Option #3 – Transition (Response)Intentionally accommodate change and enable ecosystems to adaptively respond to changing/new conditions
Millar et al. 2007, 2008 12
TIME
Climate ChangeTrajectory
Option #3 – Transition (Response)
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Reduce climate change impacts
Promote change
Facilitate adaptive responses
Maintain current conditionsResistance
Transition(Response)
Resilience
Adaptation Options
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Forest Adaptation Resources
Adaptation Workbook
Strategies & ApproachesMenu of adaptation actions
Swanston and Janowiak 2012; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543
• Structured process to integrate climate change considerations into management Workbook approach15
Swanston and Janowiak 2012: www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543, Janowiak et al. 2014
1. DEFINE area of interest, management objectives, and time frames.
2. ASSESS climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for the area of interest.
3. EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.
4. IDENTIFY and implement adaptation approaches and tactics.
5. MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness of implemented actions.
Identifying Adaptation Tactics
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Swanston and Janowiak 2012: www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543, Janowiak et al. 2014
1. DEFINE area of interest, management objectives, and time frames.
2. ASSESS climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for the area of interest.
3. EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.
4. IDENTIFY and implement adaptation approaches and tactics.
5. MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness of implemented actions.
Vulnerability assessments, scientific literature, and other resources
Identifying Adaptation Tactics
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Swanston and Janowiak 2012: www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543, Janowiak et al. 2014
1. DEFINE area of interest, management objectives, and time frames.
2. ASSESS climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for the area of interest.
3. EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.
4. IDENTIFY and implement adaptation approaches and tactics.
5. MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness of implemented actions.
Vulnerability assessments, scientific literature, and other resources
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
Identifying Adaptation Tactics
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Forest Adaptation Resources
• 10 strategies, 40 approaches• Result of literature review & expert
feedback and review• Provides a “menu” of possible
actions to choose from based upon your needsSwanston and Janowiak 2012; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543
Strategies & ApproachesMenu of adaptation actions
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OptionStrategy
ApproachTactic
CONCEPT
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
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OptionStrategy
ApproachTactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and ApproachesCONCEPT Resistance
ResilienceTransition
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OptionStrategy
ApproachTactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and ApproachesCONCEPT
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Adaptation Strategies1: Sustain fundamental ecological functions2: Reduce the impact of existing biological stressors 3: Protect forests from severe fire and wind disturbance 4: Maintain or create refugia5: Maintain and enhance species and structural diversity 6: Increase ecosystem redundancy across the landscape 7: Promote landscape connectivity 8: Enhance genetic diversity 9: Facilitate community adjustments through species transitions 10: Plan for and respond to disturbance
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OptionStrategy
ApproachTactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and ApproachesCONCEPT
More detailed adaptation actions that can be applied to a single forest type or ecosystem24
OptionStrategy
ApproachTactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and ApproachesCONCEPT
Prescriptive actions designed for specific site conditions and management objectives25
OptionStrategy
ApproachTactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and ApproachesCONCEPT
Resistance (forestall change)
Example 1
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OptionStrategy
ApproachTactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
Sustain fundamental ecological functions&Reduce the impact of stressors
CONCEPT Example 1
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OptionStrategy
ApproachTactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and ApproachesCONCEPT
Reduce stand density to reduce moisture stress
Example 1
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OptionStrategy
ApproachTactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and ApproachesCONCEPT
Remove 1/3 of the basal area thru low and crown thinning
Example 1
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OptionStrategy
ApproachTactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and ApproachesCONCEPT
Transition(encourage change)
Example 2
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OptionStrategy
ApproachTactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
Facilitate community adjustments through species transitions
CONCEPT Example 2
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OptionStrategy
ApproachTactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and ApproachesCONCEPT
Favor or restore native species that are expected to be better adapted to future conditions
Example 2
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OptionStrategy
ApproachTactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and ApproachesCONCEPT
Create gaps, scarify, encourage natural regen, and plant drought-tolerant species (i.e., pines, oaks)
Example 2
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Activity #2Developing Adaptation Actions for Forests
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Least Projected ChangeMost Projected Change
Activity #2
CSIRO (B1) CSIRO (A1B) HAD (A1B) MIROC (A1B) MIROC (A2)
In this activity you will use your silvicultural expertise to illustrate how climate change and uncertainty may affect stand-level management for specific ecosystems or forest types
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Activity #2As a group, select a forest type or ecosystem to work in 1) Create and describe a hypothetical management situation– Conditions: Location, site conditions, species composition, stand structure, disturbance history and susceptibility, etc.– Typical management: Management goals and objectives, common practices
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Activity #2As a group, select a forest type or ecosystem to work in 2) Identify important climate change considerations
– Anticipated effects on various forest components– Characteristics that increase/reduce vulnerability
3) Identify challenges or opportunities for meeting management goals under climate change
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Maps/data for this section courtesy of R. Neilson and MAPSS Vegetation Modeling Lab
To help think about climate change in your region
Precipitation change (summer and winter)Temperature change (summer and winter)
Activity #2
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Activity #2What actions can be taken to enhance the ability of the area to adapt to anticipated changes and meet management goals?
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Activity #2What actions can be taken to enhance the ability of the area to adapt to anticipated changes and meet management goals?
Where are you working and what are your forest management goals?Forest:Location and conditions:Current management:
What climate change impacts create challenges or opportunities for meeting these goals?
What actions would you recommend to enhance the ability of forests to adapt?Adaptation Tactics:1) 2) 3)
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Swanston and Janowiak 2012: www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543, Janowiak et al. 2014
Identifying Adaptation Tactics1. DEFINE area of interest, management objectives, and time frames.
2. ASSESS climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for the area of interest.
3. EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.4. IDENTIFY and implement adaptation approaches and tactics.
5. MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness of implemented actions.
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