Lara Whitely Binder Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group University of Washington December 2, 2004 CIG 5 Year Review Climate Science in the Public Interest The Center for The Center for Science in the Earth Science in the Earth System System Enhancing Adaptation to Enhancing Adaptation to Climate Impacts through Climate Impacts through Decision Support and Decision Support and Outreach Outreach
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Enhancing Adaptation to Climate Impacts through Decision Support and Outreach
The Center for Science in the Earth System. Enhancing Adaptation to Climate Impacts through Decision Support and Outreach. December 2, 2004 CIG 5 Year Review. Lara Whitely Binder Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group University of Washington. Climate Science in the - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Lara Whitely BinderCenter for Science in the Earth System
Climate Impacts GroupUniversity of Washington
December 2, 2004CIG 5 Year Review
Climate Science in the
Public Interest
The Center for Science The Center for Science in the Earth Systemin the Earth System Enhancing Adaptation to Enhancing Adaptation to Climate Impacts through Climate Impacts through Decision Support and Decision Support and OutreachOutreach
Decision Support and Decision Support and Outreach at CSESOutreach at CSES Decision support and outreach activities at
CSES strive to support CSES efforts to increase regional resilience to the impacts of climate variability and change.
Decision support activities are designed to facilitate the use of climate information in operations and planning.
Outreach activities disseminate information, build stakeholder relationships, and allow for feedback to CSES on research needs, products, and services.
High snow events are 2-4+ times more likely during negative PNA than positive PNA, depending on location
Reinstituted in 2003 in partnership with the Washington Department of Ecology
Provides support to public and private entities through collection, interpretation, and dissemination of climate data, forecasts, and other information
Staff includes Phil Mote (State Climatologist), CSES researcher and Outreach Specialist, and Robert Norheim (Assist. State Climatologist), CSES GIS Specialist. Office is housed at CSES.
Benefit: Provides an additional avenue for supporting the use of climate information in resource management
Office of the Washington State Climatologist
http://www.climate.washington.edu/
Decision-Support Tools: Climate Change
Climate change impact scenarios
Client-based research consultancies
Climate change streamflow scenarios archive
Technical planning assistance
GIS mapping
Designed to help managers evaluate and respond to projected climate change impacts. Research focused on the 2020s and 2040s. Main “products”:
Temperature and Precipitation Temperature and Precipitation ScenariosScenarios
Projected changes in average annual PNW temperature and precipitation for the decades of the 2020s and 2040s
Benefit: Scenarios allow managers to consider risks of climate change (i.e., “what if” scenarios).
Based on an average of 8 global climate models driven by an increase in equivalent CO2 of 1% per year. Benchmarked to the decade of the 1990s.
Changes in April 1 snowpack available at basin and sub-basin levels
Scenarios for April 1 Scenarios for April 1 SnowpackSnowpack
Current Climate
-44% -58%
“2020s” (+3°F) “2040s” (+4.5°F)
Client-based Research Client-based Research ConsultanciesConsultancies
City of Portland (2002) Tualatin River Basin (2004) Seattle Public Utilities (2004)
Average Monthly Bull Run Inflows1950-1999
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Inflo
ws,
cfs
Current ClimatePCM3 2040ECHAM4 2040HadCM2 2040HadCM3 2040
Climate change impacts on water
demand18%
Climate change impacts on water
supply16%
Impact of population growth on demand
(no climate change)66%
Palmer, R.N. and M. Hahn, 2002. The Impacts of Climate Change on Portland’s Water Supply: An Investigation of Potential Hydrologic Management Implications on the Bull Run System.
Climate Change Streamflow Climate Change Streamflow Scenario Tool for the Scenario Tool for the Columbia River BasinColumbia River Basin
Climate-adjusted streamflow data for 2020s and 2040s available on web site for 90+ locations in the Columbia River Basin
Benefit: Removes a barrier to climate impacts analysis. End user does not have to purchase, learn, and defend a new model to examine climate change impacts. Data can be used in existing planning models.
GIS tool being developed to deliver sub-regionally based information on climate and climate impacts.
Mapping past and future patterns of PNW climate, including future climate scenarios.
Numerous data layers: Elevation, hydrography (rivers/lakes),
watershed boundaries, vegetation and land cover, soils, land ownership, political boundaries
Benefit: Designed to aid planning efforts by providing information about the patterns of variability and change at a variety of spatial scales
Promotes regional understanding of climate impacts in PNW resource management. Activities include:
Workshops and meetings (4-5/year) Presentations and briefings (75+/year) One-on-one technical assistance (ex: watersheds) Work with the local media Web site development and maintenance
Provides opportunity for feedback from the stakeholder community
Outreach
Meetings and WorkshopsMeetings and Workshops Sector-specific meetings with
technical resource staff and senior decision makers:
Climate Impacts on Salmon
Management and Recovery in the Columbia River Basin (9.21.04)
Fall climate and water forecast meetings (WA/OR and ID)
Redesigned in spring 2004 to better serve as a planning resource
An integral component of CSES decision support and outreach efforts
Includes information on: PNW climate and climate
impacts Forecasts and planning
tools Meetings and workshops CIG publications
The New CIG Web SiteThe New CIG Web Sitehttp://www.cses.washington.edu/cig
Additional Directions for Decision Support and Outreach, 2005-2010
Increased collaboration with resource managers and other stakeholders to (but not limited to):
More explicitly identify key climate-sensitive decisions and risk exposures that may benefit from new research, decision-support products
Investigate how improved climate forecasts can be applied to decisions affecting salmon and coastal aquatic communities
CSES will continue to develop, maintain, and transition decision support products for PNW decision makers in 2005-2010. Outreach is an important component of that effort. Proposed outreach activities include:
Additional Directions cont’d Develop an adaptation “handbook” for public agencies
Detailing the range of adaptive strategies to help agencies answer “how do we adapt to climate change?”
Continue expanding, enhancing CSES web site To increase the site’s role as a decision-support resource
Expand outreach to coastal, salmon, forecast sectors Using model from hydrology and water resource work to
expand understanding and use of climate information
GIS mapping, Live Access Server for PNW climate data
Third international workshop on regional integrated assessment (2006) Provides opportunity to both share and learn from other
experiences in integrated assessment
In Summary CSES strives to help the region develop the capacity
to adapt to climate variability and change via: Basic and applied research Development of decision-support tools Outreach
Decision support and outreach efforts have been instrumental in developing and maintaining productive working relationships with the stakeholder community
Demand for CSES’s research and products continues to grow, and CSES will continue to respond to these demands.