Mobile Cellular: Cutting the cord Tim Kelly & Michael Minges (ITU) CTO Annual Council, Gaborone, 21 September 1999 The views expressed in this presentation.
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Mobile Cellular:Cutting the cord
Tim Kelly & Michael Minges (ITU)CTO Annual Council, Gaborone,
21 September 1999
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its membership. Tim Kelly can be contacted by e-mail at: Tim.Kelly@itu.int.
Mobile Cellular: Mobile Cellular: Cutting the cordCutting the cord
The Mobile RevolutionSupplying MobileRegulating MobileMobile AccessPricing MobileA Mobile Future
Examples from SADC
A Mobile RevolutionA Mobile Revolution
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database.
More than 300 million users250’000 new users added each dayUsers double every 20 monthsCompetitive markets
Worldwide mobile cellular subscribers (millions)
553423161191
144
215
318
38%
9%6%4%
13%
3%2%
20%
27%
1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Mobile as % of fixed-line telephone
subscribers
Mobile growth in SADC regionMobile growth in SADC region(excluding South Africa)(excluding South Africa)
Source: ITU
Over 100% growthAlmost as many
new mobile and fixed-line subscribers added in 1998
Penetration rate doubling each year
0.21
0.02
0.05
0.10
0
50
100
150
200
250
1995 1996 1997 1998
New telephone subscribers in SADC countries (000s) *
* Excluding South Africa
Mobile
Mobile density
Fixed
Supplying MobileSupplying Mobile
Note: Analogue systems include: AMPS (Advanced Mobile Phone System), NMT (Nordic Mobile Telephony), TACS (Total Access Communications System). Digital systems include: CDMA (Code Division Multiple Access), GSM (Global System for Mobile), PDC (Personal Digital Cellular), PHS (Personal Handyphone System), TDMA (Time Division Multiple Access).Source: ITU, adapted from Ericsson, Dataquest, GSM MoU, CDMA Development Group.
Worldwide cellular subscribers by technology, 1998 1st generation,
analogue 2nd generation,
digital 3rd generation,
IMT-2000 global roaming multimedia
(Internet, data, video, voice)
multi-mode (in-building, terrestrial, satellite)
7%
TDMA/D-AMPS
6% PDC11%
CDMAPHS2%
AMPS23%
NMT2%
TACS5%
GSM44%
Analogue30%
Digital 70%
Status of Mobile in SADC Status of Mobile in SADC regionregion
Mobile cellular start-upSADC countries
AngolaFeb. 94
NamibiaApril 95
BotswanaJune 98 South
AfricaJune 94
ZambiaAug.95
TanzaniaSep. 94
Zim -babweSep.96
MalawiDec. 95
Swazi -land
Nov.98
LesothoMay 96
MauritiusMay 89
Mozam -bique
Nov.97
Source : ITU.
< 0.1%
> 5%~ 1%
0.2 - .05%
Penetration
Mobile established fairly recently in all countries of SADC region
GSM is dominant standard
Roaming agreements evolving
Regulating MobileRegulating Mobile
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database.
A relative lack of regulation<1% of world market under
monopolyKey issues: Coverage
and interconnect
Number of countries with mobile cellular competition
2838
49
6172
93
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Market structures, SADCMarket structures, SADC
Private sector participation in all but one SADC country
Competition in 6 SADC countries
Cellular market structureSADC countries
Angola
Namibia
Botswana
South Africa
Zambia
Tanzania
Zim-babwe
Malawi
Lesotho
Mauritius
Swazi-land
Competitive with fixed PTO participation
100% state-owned
Fixed PTO+private investors
Competitive no fixed PTO participation
Number of mobile operators
Mozam-bique
Mobile AccessMobile Access
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database.
Mobile can enhance access
Pre-paid has given access a major boost, esp. in Europe
Mobile is becoming preferred form of access in many developing countries
Pre-paid mobile cellular subscribers, 1998, as % of total Total
pre-paid (m)
15.2
2.0
1.6
1.3
0.4
0.8
0.7
0.6
74%
60%
53%
50%
40%
37%
35%
35%
Italy
Mexico
Portugal
S. Africa
Indonesia
Austria
Greece
Philippines
©ITU / A. de Ferron
Mobile as a tool in achieving Mobile as a tool in achieving Universal Universal ServiceService
SADC operators have few Universal Service Obligations
Except in South Africa where they had to install 30’000 cellular payphones in 5 years
Cellular is quicker to implement and less prone to copper theft
Pricing MobilePricing Mobile
Note: Price basket based on monthly subscription plus 50 mins peak and 50 mins off-peak use.Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database.
High prices stunt network development
Specialist mobile companies doing better than integrated fixed/mobile
Prices falling by around 4% p.a.
Relationship between mobile price and density in Western Europe
Mobile density (per 100 inhabitants)
Price per 100 mins per month (US$)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
10 20 30 40 50 60
Switzerland
AustriaUK
Ireland
Finland
Sweden
Norway
Germany
GreeceSpain
Bel.Franc
Italy
Port.Neth.
Denmark
IcelandLux.
$14
$20
$71
$35
$33
$55
$19
$39
Malawi
Mauritius
Mozambique
Namibia
South Africa
Zambia
Zimbabwe
SADC
Mobile cellular tariff , 100 minutes, US$, 3/ 99
Source: I TU adapted from publishedoperator tariffs.
Mobile prices in SADC regionMobile prices in SADC region
Prices still relatively high compared to other regions
Significant variations within the region
Pre-paid schemes are widening access base (e.g., >50% of Vodacom’s subscribers)
A mobile futureA mobile future
Source: 1990-1998 data from ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database. 1999-2010 ITU projections.
Mobile has overtaken fixed-lines in Cambodia, Finland and Italy
Mobile subscribers to overtake fixed-line worldwide before 2010?
Mobile revenue to overtake fixed-line after 2004?
Fastest growth in developing countries
Actual and projected subscriber growth, fixed-lines and mobile, millions, 1990-2010
0
500
1'000
1'500
2'000
1990 2000 2010
Fixed
Mobile
Cross-over between fixed and Cross-over between fixed and mobile subscribers, S. Africamobile subscribers, S. Africa
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Fixed-line
Mobile
Subscribers per 100
inhabitants January 2000, at density
11.85 ??
For more information ...For more information ...Publication launch:
10 October 1999 (TELECOM ‘99)
Available on paper and online (PDF format)
World Telecom Indicators Database available online
Website:
http://www.itu.int/ti
Other reports launched at TELECOM ‘99Other reports launched at TELECOM ‘99 Direction of Traffic 1999: Trading Telecom Minutes Trends in Telecom Reform 1999: Convergence Internet for Development (updated with latest data)
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