Ministry of water and energy Modeling Experience Nov, 2012
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MINISTRY OF WATER AND ENERGY
MODELING EXPERIENCE
NOV, 2012
PRESENTATION ON THE MODELING EXPERIENCE OF MOWE
Introduction
General concept and use of models
Experiences of Modeling in the MOWE
Capacity and Challenges
Way Forward
INTRODUCTION 12 basins with 1.13M
Sq Km A surface water
resource of 122BM3 Ground water
resource more than 35BM3 and also under study
Challenges in terms of development, management optimization that needs reliable tools
GENERAL CONCEPT, TYPE AND USE OF MODELS
General Concept Models in water resource management are tools
that are used to inform decisions about water resources in quantity and quality, Environmental, and water management in Complex regional systems.
Type of models Simulation and optimization models Hydrological and meteorological models Disaster management models Water quality models Design models
USE OF MODELS Estimate runoff from watersheds predict interactions between ground-water and surface
water bodies used to study reservoir operation; to forecast floods and
plan flood-control programs; to predict, embankment erosion, and dam breaks; and to plan for ecosystem restoration.
for the real-time operation and management of water systems and for assessing water supply availability and reliability
used for determining facility-size requirements for water storage and distribution systems
predict changes in a river bed form and location, including bank erosion, scouring, changes in the hydraulic regime, and so on.
used for morphological studies in small- and large-scale rivers of all kinds and in all settings, as well in reservoirs.
Evaluate alternative water allocation scenario and assist in assessing the impact of intervention
EXPERIENCE OF MODELING WITHIN THE MINISTRY
The Ministry of Water and Energy has been developing models for years as part of the Integrated Basin Development Master Plan Studies as well as other specific studies
most of the models are developed by consultants and, some experiences using in house staffs
Relevant directorates in water resources modeling activities are Hydrology and Water Quality, Basin Administration Directorate, Water Use Permit and Administration Directorate, Environmental Impact Assessment and Social Development Office, Energy ….. And Research Directorates
SOME MODELS THAT ARE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE MINISTRYSR. No.
Types of Model used For water resource Planning
Project / study Water Resource Modeling (Water Balance , Water allocation and Use)
1 Awash Surface Water Master Plan Studies HEC-5(Simulation Model), WEAP,
2 Omo – Integrated Development Master Plan Studies HEC-53 Baro - Integrated Development Master Plan Studies HEC-5 Model -for Reservoirs
Operation4 Abbay Basin Integrated Development Master Plan Studies -WATBAL(WBCOMP, WBPLOT,
WBFAIL
5 Integrated Development Master Plan Studies RIBASIM-Hydrology
7 Integrated Development Master Plan Studies MIKEBASIN8 Integrated Development Master Plan Studies9 Integrated Development Master Plan Studies WEAP10 Sedimentation Project SWAT11 Institutional Setup Studies of Abbay Basin Project Mike 1111 Tana Beles Integrated Water Resources Dev. -WEAP
-RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL-Watbal
12 Irrigation and Drainage Project -WEAP13 Reservoir operation activity for majior dams in water balance EXEL MODEL14 Rainfall runoff estimation for Flood management in and
Awash bainsHEC HMS, NAM module of MIKE IIHEC RAS and Geo RAS
15 Water Quality
MODELING CAPACITY AND CHALLENGES
Modeling Capacity Modeling capacity within the Ministry is very
low Some practical experiences in some
directorates Need to establish modeling unit Some Modeling soft-wares and equipments
availableChallenges No adequate experienced staff There is high turnover of staffs that are trained
in modeling Lack of Modeling tools and Equipments There is No take over of the activities
undertaken by different studies
FUTURE DIRECTION
concentrate on checking, updating and make use of existing models for operational purposes
Integration among different directorates Capacity development, human and
institutional Co-operate with different stakeholders,
universities and institutes that are working in modeling
Practical Experiences
Main Activities Reservoir Management Flood forecasting, monitoring and control
Tools Forecasting using simple EXEL models Forecasting using models like HEC-HMS, MIKE
II Monitoring near real time data
PREDICTION OF RESERVOIR WL USING SIMPLE EXEL MODELS
Rainfall forecast as upon 14th of September 2012
Runoff forecast as upon 14th of September 2012
Fogera Rivers (Gumara and Ribb): Peak flood is expected in the evening of 15th and in the morning of 16th September, 2012 (around midnight)
Dembiya Rivers (Dirma and Megech): Peak flood is expected in the early morning of 16 September 2012 (around 3:00 AM)
Runoff forecast as upon 14th of September 2012, (Fogera floodplain)
THANK YOU
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