Ministry of water and energy Modeling Experience Nov, 2012

MINISTRY OF WATER AND ENERGY

MODELING EXPERIENCE

NOV, 2012

PRESENTATION ON THE MODELING EXPERIENCE OF MOWE

Introduction

General concept and use of models

Experiences of Modeling in the MOWE

Capacity and Challenges

Way Forward

INTRODUCTION 12 basins with 1.13M

Sq Km A surface water

resource of 122BM3 Ground water

resource more than 35BM3 and also under study

Challenges in terms of development, management optimization that needs reliable tools

GENERAL CONCEPT, TYPE AND USE OF MODELS

General Concept Models in water resource management are tools

that are used to inform decisions about water resources in quantity and quality, Environmental, and water management in Complex regional systems.

Type of models Simulation and optimization models Hydrological and meteorological models Disaster management models Water quality models Design models

USE OF MODELS Estimate runoff from watersheds predict interactions between ground-water and surface

water bodies used to study reservoir operation; to forecast floods and

plan flood-control programs; to predict, embankment erosion, and dam breaks; and to plan for ecosystem restoration.

for the real-time operation and management of water systems and for assessing water supply availability and reliability

used for determining facility-size requirements for water storage and distribution systems

predict changes in a river bed form and location, including bank erosion, scouring, changes in the hydraulic regime, and so on.

used for morphological studies in small- and large-scale rivers of all kinds and in all settings, as well in reservoirs.

Evaluate alternative water allocation scenario and assist in assessing the impact of intervention

EXPERIENCE OF MODELING WITHIN THE MINISTRY

The Ministry of Water and Energy has been developing models for years as part of the Integrated Basin Development Master Plan Studies as well as other specific studies

most of the models are developed by consultants and, some experiences using in house staffs

Relevant directorates in water resources modeling activities are Hydrology and Water Quality, Basin Administration Directorate, Water Use Permit and Administration Directorate, Environmental Impact Assessment and Social Development Office, Energy ….. And Research Directorates

SOME MODELS THAT ARE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE MINISTRYSR. No.

Types of Model used For water resource Planning

Project / study Water Resource Modeling (Water Balance , Water allocation and Use)

1 Awash Surface Water Master Plan Studies HEC-5(Simulation Model), WEAP,

2 Omo – Integrated Development Master Plan Studies HEC-53 Baro - Integrated Development Master Plan Studies HEC-5 Model -for Reservoirs

Operation4 Abbay Basin Integrated Development Master Plan Studies -WATBAL(WBCOMP, WBPLOT,

WBFAIL

5 Integrated Development Master Plan Studies RIBASIM-Hydrology

7 Integrated Development Master Plan Studies MIKEBASIN8 Integrated Development Master Plan Studies9 Integrated Development Master Plan Studies WEAP10 Sedimentation Project SWAT11 Institutional Setup Studies of Abbay Basin Project Mike 1111 Tana Beles Integrated Water Resources Dev. -WEAP

-RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL-Watbal

12 Irrigation and Drainage Project -WEAP13 Reservoir operation activity for majior dams in water balance EXEL MODEL14 Rainfall runoff estimation for Flood management in and

Awash bainsHEC HMS, NAM module of MIKE IIHEC RAS and Geo RAS

15 Water Quality

MODELING CAPACITY AND CHALLENGES

Modeling Capacity Modeling capacity within the Ministry is very

low Some practical experiences in some

directorates Need to establish modeling unit Some Modeling soft-wares and equipments

availableChallenges No adequate experienced staff There is high turnover of staffs that are trained

in modeling Lack of Modeling tools and Equipments There is No take over of the activities

undertaken by different studies

FUTURE DIRECTION

concentrate on checking, updating and make use of existing models for operational purposes

Integration among different directorates Capacity development, human and

institutional Co-operate with different stakeholders,

universities and institutes that are working in modeling

Practical Experiences

Main Activities Reservoir Management Flood forecasting, monitoring and control

Tools Forecasting using simple EXEL models Forecasting using models like HEC-HMS, MIKE

II Monitoring near real time data

PREDICTION OF RESERVOIR WL USING SIMPLE EXEL MODELS

Rainfall forecast as upon 14th of September 2012

Runoff forecast as upon 14th of September 2012

Fogera Rivers (Gumara and Ribb): Peak flood is expected in the evening of 15th and in the morning of 16th September, 2012 (around midnight)

Dembiya Rivers (Dirma and Megech): Peak flood is expected in the early morning of 16 September 2012 (around 3:00 AM)

Runoff forecast as upon 14th of September 2012, (Fogera floodplain)

THANK YOU