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1
Korea Gas Corporation
Perspectives of LNG Market Perspectives of LNG Market in North East Asia in North East Asia
“Fourth Meeting of the Working Group on Energy Planning and Policy”Irkutsk, Russia Federation, 12-13 September 2007
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ⅠⅠ. World LNG market. World LNG market
2
33
World Natural Gas consumption2,750bcm
World Natural Gas consumption2,750bcm
Trade movement (722bcm)PNG 533bcm, LNG 189bcm
Trade movement (722bcm)PNG 533bcm, LNG 189bcm
Top 3 of LNG importing CountryJAPAN : 76bcmKOREA : 31bcmSPAIN : 22bcm
Top 3 of LNG importing CountryJAPAN : 76bcmKOREA : 31bcmSPAIN : 22bcm
Trade flows worldwideTrade flows worldwide
Source : bp
4Source : IEA
LNG vs. Pipeline NaturalLNG vs. Pipeline Natural GasGas
6886
118
152
276296
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
MTPA
SouthAmerica
Europe
Africa
MiddleEast
NorthAmerica
Australia
Asia
3
55
LNG Trade MovementLNG Trade Movement in 2004 in 2004
Asia-Pacific
North America
Europe
6
LNG Trade Movement in 2006LNG Trade Movement in 2006
4
7
Supply and demand in AsiaSupply and demand in Asia--Pacific Basin Pacific Basin
- 2 0
- 1 0
1 0
2 0 20
01
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
M T P A
Uncommitted supply capacity = Supply Capacity - Export Contracts
Demand Shortage= Demand - Import Contracts
Asia Pacific Balance
unit : unit : mtpamtpa 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
LNG LNG demand(ademand(a)) 92.4 99.8 107.7 116.3 125.5 135.5 144.6 154.4 164.8 175.9 187.7
Contracted (b)Contracted (b) 88.4 96.6 102.6 112.3 117.9 120.6 109.7 109.3 104.2 99.4 94.4
c=ac=a--bb 4.0 3.2 5.1 4.0 7.6 14.9 34.9 45.1 60.6 76.5 93.3
Uncommitted (d)Uncommitted (d) 5.6 5.4 3.3 -5.1 10.1 16.8 36.6 37.6 43.6 48.4 53.4
Balance (Balance (dd--cc)) 1.6 2.2 -1.8 -9.1 2.5 1.8 1.7 -7.5 -17.0 -28.1 -39.9
Source : Wood Mackenzie
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From From ““BuyerBuyer’’s markets market”” to to ““SellerSeller’’s markets market””
Source : POTEN & PARTNER
5
9SOURCE : LNG Global, Deutsch Bank
North America R/P=9.7
LNG Demand of USA in 2015
10
North American LNG TerminalsNorth American LNG Terminals
6
11
Source : GIIGNL
World LNG Spot tradingWorld LNG Spot trading
1212
ⅡⅡ. . EnergyEnergy DemandDemand in NEA & LNGin NEA & LNG
7
13
13,390(100%)
1,0081,008(7.5%)(7.5%)
38
960
10
Country Size(1 million ha)
3.6
5.55.5
2.7
9.9
4.0
GDP Grow Rate(%)
125,843
(100%)
30,09030,090
(23.9%)(23.9%)
10,424
14,221
5,445
Trading(100 million $)
1,4841,484(22.8%)(22.8%)
7,5567,556(16.9%)(16.9%)
SUBSUB--
TOTALTOTAL
44,645(100%)
4,534
2,234
788
GDP(1 billion $)
6,500(100%)
128
1,308
48
Population(1 million)
JAPAN
WORLD
CHINA
KOREA
SourceSource : World Bank, 2006: World Bank, 2006USUS Census Bureau, 2007Census Bureau, 2007World Trade Organization, 2007 World Trade Organization, 2007
Leading Economic Indicators Leading Economic Indicators
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Primary Energy Demand Primary Energy Demand
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2006
The amount of primary energy consumption in Korea, China, Japan accounts for about 22% of the world consumption.
[World] [N-E Asia]
USA 2.3 bil TOE
Russia 700 mil TOE
10.5 bilTOE
2.3 bilTOE
EU 1.7 bil TOE
Europe & Russia28%
N-America27%
ME5%
S-America5%
Africa3%
Asia-Pacific
32%
Japan23%
Korea10%
China67%
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KOREAKOREA
Source : 1. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 20062. APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 2006, APERC
2020yr2020yr2005yr2005yr
(220 mil TOE)(220 mil TOE) (310 mil TOE)(310 mil TOE)
47%
13%
24%
15%1%
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro
42%
20%
18%
19%1%
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Source : 1. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 20062. APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 2006, APERC
CHINACHINA
2020yr2020yr2005yr2005yr
(1.6 bil TOE)(1.6 bil TOE) (2.3 bil TOE)(2.3 bil TOE)
22%
6%
67%
3% 2%21%
3%
69%
1% 6%Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro
9
17
Source : 1. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 20062. APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 2006, APERC
JAPANJAPAN
2020yr2020yr2005yr2005yr
(520 mil TOE)(520 mil TOE) (570 mil TOE)(570 mil TOE)
46%
14%
23%
13% 4%
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro
46%
17%
19%
17% 1%
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Shtokman LNGBaltic LNG
Sakhalin 2 LNG
<Russia<Russia’’s role in NEA Energy Market>s role in NEA Energy Market>
Only Russia can swap LNG with PNG (Pipeline Natural Gas) except Norway in the future
10
1919
ⅢⅢ. . For 2008 and BeyondFor 2008 and Beyond
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LNG consumption in 2010
12.0mtpa
0.8 mtpa
25.6mtpa
62.2mtpa
50.0mtpa
7.1 mtpa
31.3mtpa
67.8 mtpa
LNG consumption in 20066.2mtpa
10.5 mtpa
0.6 mtpa
11.3mtpa
< Tsunami Scenario in 2010 >< Tsunami Scenario in 2010 >
11
21
The Best ScenarioThe Best Scenario
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The Worst ScenarioThe Worst Scenario
12
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< For 2008 and beyond >< For 2008 and beyond >
LNG consumption in 2010
12.0mtpa
0.8 mtpa
25.6mtpa
62.2mtpa
50.0mtpa
7.1 mtpa
31.3mtpa
67.8 mtpa
LNG consumption in 20066.2mtpa
10.5 mtpa
0.6 mtpa
11.3mtpa
Establishing “The Natural Gas Trading Hub” in North East Asia
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Thank you
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