Met Office Presentation 2013

© Crown copyright Met Office

© Crown copyright Met Office

Vicky Pope

September 2013

Update of the latest Met Office Climate Change work

• Climate Service UK

• Evidence to underpin policy

• Examples of Climate Services

Preparing for future challenges

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What is a Climate Service?

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Climate science is now at the stage where it can provide global services to meet the adaptation needs of Government, businesses and the public, at regional and local levels.

From Science to Service: the end-to-end delivery chain

Customer

Customerrequirements

Core research

Prediction and Climatologies

Servicedelivery

Translation Servicedevelopment

Partnership

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Evidence to underpin policy

Mitigation and adaptation© Crown copyright Met Office

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What does the future hold?

RCP 8.5 - business as usualRCP 2.6 - low carbon economy

Single model. IPCC will have a quantitative assessment based on all models

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Oct 2010 – March 2012 Rainfall% of 1971-2000 average

2 dry winters

Extreme weatherFrom drought...

Summer 2012 Rainfall% of 1971-2000 average

Extreme weather...to flood

Wettest June on record

(180% of average)

3rd wettest summer on record for Wales (240% of average)

Important processes

• North Atlantic weather – North Atlantic Oscillation/ jet stream

• Tropical Pacific weather – El Nino

• Arctic Sea ice retreat

Best long-term climate

models, UKCP09

State-of-art seasonal

model

Current global

weather forecasting

Current UK weather

forecasting + ground-breaking

climate work

Mountains (130km grid)

Mountains (60km grid)

1.5km resolution climate modelResolution of Welsh terrain

Mountains (25km grid)

Mountains (1.5km grid)

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Translation and services© Crown copyright Met Office

Little risk: Action unlikely to be required

Possible risk:Action where assets already close to design limits

Some understanding:More work to quantify risks

Probable risk:Action likely to be required for most assets

Coastalinfrastructure

Wind

CCGTs

Trans-FormersUrban &

Rural

CabelsNorth &

South

Networkdesign

Line rating

NetworkResilience

Climatology for demand forecasting

2010| 2020| 2030| 2040| 2050| 2060| 2070|

Climate change adaptation guide for Energy Phase 2 project

Virtual Met Mast (VMM™)

© Crown copyright Met Office

• An advanced wind-energy site-screening and planning tool• Predicts wind statistics

• Any hub height• Onshore and Offshore• Virtual climatology for several decades

• Uses high resolution wind fields • UK 4km model data• ECMWF Interim Reanalyses • Satellite data vital component of both• Takes into account surface roughness and orography

• Cheaper and quicker than direct measurement on-site

Virtual Met Mast (VMM™)

Underpinning Science Service Enabler Service

development Service delivery

Partners Met Office

Stakeholders Renewable wind energy industry, potentially insurance industry (commodity trading, alternative risk transfer)

Geographical Scope

UK, Europe

Temporal Outlook

Currently 23 years of historical wind data

Services & tools

• Advanced wind-energy site-screening and planning tool• Monthly time series of winds at specified locations at required mast heights• Local mean wind maps

© Crown copyright Met Office

What is a Climate Service?

Climate science is now at the stage where it can provide global services to meet the adaptation needs of Government, businesses and the public, at regional and local levels.

From Science to Service: the end-to-end delivery chain

Core research

Prediction and Climatologies

Translation Servicedevelopment

Servicedelivery

Customer

© Crown copyright Met Office Customerrequirements

Partnership

Contribution to IPCC

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Global average temperatures (including latest observations)

Hiatus in warming: Possible contributions Met Office Hiatus report (IPCC AR5 will contain synthesised results) http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/recent-pause-in-warming

• Natural variability: models have 10-15 year periods with no warming or even cooling

• Incoming radiation: reduction of 0.6 Wm-2 needed to explain pause. Maximum possible is 0.3 Wm-2

• Recent decrease in stratospheric water vapour: traps less heat: up to 0.1Wm-2

• Change in man-made aerosols: little net effect• Volcanic eruptions: not enough during period • Extended solar minimum: less than 0.2Wm-2

• Ocean changes: could be a major contributor • Ocean heat content, sea-level rise observations: Earth system continued

to absorbed heat• Additional heat appears to have been absorbed in the ocean. • Increased exchange to deep ocean appears to have caused at least part

of the pause in surface warming, • Observations indicate that Pacific Ocean may play a key role.

Representative comparison between CMIP3 and 5

models (scaled using simple models)

Climate model projections CMIP5Global surface temperature (single study, AR5 will contain synthesised results)

Knutti and Sedláček, 2013

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Climate model projections CMIP5Preciptation (single study, AR5 will contain synthesised results)

Knutti and Sedláček, 2013

December - February

June - August

Stippling – high robustnessHatching – no significant change

White – models inconsistent