© Crown copyright Met Office © Crown copyright Met Office Vicky Pope September 2013 Update of the latest Met Office Climate Change work
© Crown copyright Met Office
© Crown copyright Met Office
Vicky Pope
September 2013
Update of the latest Met Office Climate Change work
• Climate Service UK
• Evidence to underpin policy
• Examples of Climate Services
Preparing for future challenges
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What is a Climate Service?
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Climate science is now at the stage where it can provide global services to meet the adaptation needs of Government, businesses and the public, at regional and local levels.
From Science to Service: the end-to-end delivery chain
Customer
Customerrequirements
Core research
Prediction and Climatologies
Servicedelivery
Translation Servicedevelopment
Partnership
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Evidence to underpin policy
Mitigation and adaptation© Crown copyright Met Office
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What does the future hold?
RCP 8.5 - business as usualRCP 2.6 - low carbon economy
Single model. IPCC will have a quantitative assessment based on all models
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Oct 2010 – March 2012 Rainfall% of 1971-2000 average
2 dry winters
Extreme weatherFrom drought...
Summer 2012 Rainfall% of 1971-2000 average
Extreme weather...to flood
Wettest June on record
(180% of average)
3rd wettest summer on record for Wales (240% of average)
Important processes
• North Atlantic weather – North Atlantic Oscillation/ jet stream
• Tropical Pacific weather – El Nino
• Arctic Sea ice retreat
Best long-term climate
models, UKCP09
State-of-art seasonal
model
Current global
weather forecasting
Current UK weather
forecasting + ground-breaking
climate work
Mountains (130km grid)
Mountains (60km grid)
1.5km resolution climate modelResolution of Welsh terrain
Mountains (25km grid)
Mountains (1.5km grid)
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Translation and services© Crown copyright Met Office
Little risk: Action unlikely to be required
Possible risk:Action where assets already close to design limits
Some understanding:More work to quantify risks
Probable risk:Action likely to be required for most assets
Coastalinfrastructure
Wind
CCGTs
Trans-FormersUrban &
Rural
CabelsNorth &
South
Networkdesign
Line rating
NetworkResilience
Climatology for demand forecasting
2010| 2020| 2030| 2040| 2050| 2060| 2070|
Climate change adaptation guide for Energy Phase 2 project
Virtual Met Mast (VMM™)
© Crown copyright Met Office
• An advanced wind-energy site-screening and planning tool• Predicts wind statistics
• Any hub height• Onshore and Offshore• Virtual climatology for several decades
• Uses high resolution wind fields • UK 4km model data• ECMWF Interim Reanalyses • Satellite data vital component of both• Takes into account surface roughness and orography
• Cheaper and quicker than direct measurement on-site
Virtual Met Mast (VMM™)
Underpinning Science Service Enabler Service
development Service delivery
Partners Met Office
Stakeholders Renewable wind energy industry, potentially insurance industry (commodity trading, alternative risk transfer)
Geographical Scope
UK, Europe
Temporal Outlook
Currently 23 years of historical wind data
Services & tools
• Advanced wind-energy site-screening and planning tool• Monthly time series of winds at specified locations at required mast heights• Local mean wind maps
© Crown copyright Met Office
What is a Climate Service?
Climate science is now at the stage where it can provide global services to meet the adaptation needs of Government, businesses and the public, at regional and local levels.
From Science to Service: the end-to-end delivery chain
Core research
Prediction and Climatologies
Translation Servicedevelopment
Servicedelivery
Customer
© Crown copyright Met Office Customerrequirements
Partnership
Contribution to IPCC
© Crown copyright Met Office
Global average temperatures (including latest observations)
Hiatus in warming: Possible contributions Met Office Hiatus report (IPCC AR5 will contain synthesised results) http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/recent-pause-in-warming
• Natural variability: models have 10-15 year periods with no warming or even cooling
• Incoming radiation: reduction of 0.6 Wm-2 needed to explain pause. Maximum possible is 0.3 Wm-2
• Recent decrease in stratospheric water vapour: traps less heat: up to 0.1Wm-2
• Change in man-made aerosols: little net effect• Volcanic eruptions: not enough during period • Extended solar minimum: less than 0.2Wm-2
• Ocean changes: could be a major contributor • Ocean heat content, sea-level rise observations: Earth system continued
to absorbed heat• Additional heat appears to have been absorbed in the ocean. • Increased exchange to deep ocean appears to have caused at least part
of the pause in surface warming, • Observations indicate that Pacific Ocean may play a key role.
Representative comparison between CMIP3 and 5
models (scaled using simple models)
Climate model projections CMIP5Global surface temperature (single study, AR5 will contain synthesised results)
Knutti and Sedláček, 2013
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Climate model projections CMIP5Preciptation (single study, AR5 will contain synthesised results)
Knutti and Sedláček, 2013
December - February
June - August
Stippling – high robustnessHatching – no significant change
White – models inconsistent