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© Crown copyright Met Office © Crown copyright Met Office Vicky Pope September 2013 Update of the latest Met Office Climate Change work
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Met Office Presentation 2013

Jun 30, 2015

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Update of the latest Met Office Climate Change work
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  • 1. Crown copyright Met Office Crown copyright Met Office Vicky Pope September 2013 Update of the latest Met Office Climate Change work

2. Climate Service UK Evidence to underpin policy Examples of Climate Services Preparing for future challenges Crown copyright Met Office 3. What is a Climate Service? Crown copyright Met Office Climate science is now at the stage where it can provide global services to meet the adaptation needs of Government, businesses and the public, at regional and local levels. From Science to Service: the end-to-end delivery chain Customer Customer requirements Core research Prediction and Climatologies Service delivery Translation Service development Partnership Crown copyright Met Office 4. Evidence to underpin policy Mitigation and adaptation Crown copyright Met Office 5. Crown copyright Met Office Crown copyright Met Office 6. What does the future hold? RCP 8.5 - business as usual RCP 2.6 - low carbon economy Single model. IPCC will have a quantitative assessment based on all models Crown copyright Met Office 7. Oct 2010 March 2012 Rainfall % of 1971-2000 average 2 dry winters Extreme weather From drought... 8. Summer 2012 Rainfall % of 1971-2000 average Extreme weather ...to flood Wettest June on record (180% of average) 3rd wettest summer on record for Wales (240% of average) 9. Important processes North Atlantic weather North Atlantic Oscillation/ jet stream Tropical Pacific weather El Nino Arctic Sea ice retreat 10. Best long- term climate models, UKCP09 State-of-art seasonal model Current global weather forecasting Current UK weather forecasting + ground- breaking climate work Mountains(130km grid) Mountains(60km grid) 1.5km resolution climate model Resolution of Welsh terrain Mountains(25km grid) Mountains(1.5km grid) Crown copyright Met Office 11. Translation and services Crown copyright Met Office 12. Little risk: Action unlikely to be required Possible risk: Action where assets already close to design limits Some understanding: More work to quantify risks Probable risk: Action likely to be required for most assets Coastal infrastructure Wind CCGTs Trans- Formers Urban & Rural Cabels North & South Network design Line rating Network Resilience Climatology for demand forecasting 2010| 2020| 2030| 2040| 2050| 2060| 2070| Climate change adaptation guide for Energy Phase 2 project 13. Virtual Met Mast (VMM) Crown copyright Met Office An advanced wind-energy site-screening and planning tool Predicts wind statistics Any hub height Onshore and Offshore Virtual climatology for several decades Uses high resolution wind fields UK 4km model data ECMWF Interim Reanalyses Satellite data vital component of both Takes into account surface roughness and orography Cheaper and quicker than direct measurement on-site 14. Virtual Met Mast (VMM) Underpinning Science Service Enabler Service development Service delivery Partners Met Office Stakeholders Renewable wind energy industry, potentially insurance industry (commodity trading, alternative risk transfer) Geographical Scope UK, Europe Temporal Outlook Currently 23 years of historical wind data Services & tools Advanced wind-energy site-screening and planning tool Monthly time series of winds at specified locations at required mast heights Local mean wind maps Crown copyright Met Office 15. What is a Climate Service? Climate science is now at the stage where it can provide global services to meet the adaptation needs of Government, businesses and the public, at regional and local levels. From Science to Service: the end-to-end delivery chain Core research Prediction and Climatologies Translation Service development Service delivery Customer Crown copyright Met Office Customer requirements Partnership 16. Contribution to IPCC 17. Crown copyright Met Office 18. Global average temperatures (including latest observations) 19. Hiatus in warming: Possible contributions Met Office Hiatus report (IPCC AR5 will contain synthesised results) http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/recent-pause-in-warming Natural variability: models have 10-15 year periods with no warming or even cooling Incoming radiation: reduction of 0.6 Wm-2 needed to explain pause. Maximum possible is 0.3 Wm-2 Recent decrease in stratospheric water vapour: traps less heat: up to 0.1Wm-2 Change in man-made aerosols: little net effect Volcanic eruptions: not enough during period Extended solar minimum: less than 0.2Wm-2 Ocean changes: could be a major contributor Ocean heat content, sea-level rise observations: Earth system continued to absorbed heat Additional heat appears to have been absorbed in the ocean. Increased exchange to deep ocean appears to have caused at least part of the pause in surface warming, Observations indicate that Pacific Ocean may play a key role. 20. Representative comparison between CMIP3 and 5 models (scaled using simple models) Climate model projections CMIP5 Global surface temperature (single study, AR5 will contain synthesised results) Knutti and Sedlek, 2013 Crown copyright Met Office 21. Climate model projections CMIP5 Preciptation (single study, AR5 will contain synthesised results) Knutti and Sedlek, 2013 December - February June - August Stippling high robustness Hatching no significant change White models inconsistent