Transcript
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AMITY BUSINESS SCHOOL
A PROJECT REPORT ONMacro Level Clustering of Countries to Identify their Potential
for Establishing IT & ITES Industry
SUBMITTED TO:
Ms. Amanpreet Kang
Dept. of International
Business
SUBJECTInternational
Economics & Policies
SUBMITTED ON:
12th October, 2012
SUBMITTED BY:
MAYANK GUPTA, A-34
SOURAV MUKHERJI, B-28
SURAJ KUMAR, D-47
MBA-Gen (2011-2013)
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Table ofContents
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 2
Macro-Level Indicators for IT and ITES Industry: ............................................................................ 2
LIST OF COUNTRIES TAKEN UP FOR STUDY: ................................................................................... 6
SPSS OUTPUT:- ................................................................................................................................ 7
Agglomeration Schedule ................................................................................................................. 9
List of Countries in Different Cluster ............................................................................................ 11
Mean of Clusters Under Variables ................................................................................................ 13
INTERPRETATION:- ........................................................................................................................ 17
STAGE-1 ............................................................................................................................................................. 17
STAGE-2 ............................................................................................................................................................. 17
CLUSTER 1: "Pioneers- The trailblazer technocrats" ......................................................................................... 18
CLUSTER 2:"Challengers- The striving bullyboy" ............................................................................................... 18
CLUSTER 3: "Laggards- The shoddy Lazybones" ............................................................................................... 19
CLUSTER-4: "Mediocres- The under-achieving strugglers" ............................................................................... 19
REFERENCES: ................................................................................................................................. 20
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INTRODUCTION
The objective of this project was to classify countries on the basis of various macro-economic factors
that affect the establishment of IT and ITES Industry in a country. To achieve our objective, first we identified
20 macro-economic variables that play significant role in providing right environment for development of IT
and ITES Industry. Then, we collected the data on these macro-economic variables for 77 countries. After that
we compiled the latest available data of the given indicator on a excel sheet. Then, the data was exported to
SPSS.19 & cluster analysis was done. Finally, based on the characteristics of clusters, we have given names for
each cluster.
Macro-Level Indicators for IT and ITES Industry:
1) GDP (per capita growth) - Gross domestic product (GDP) is the market value of all officially
recognized final goods and services produced within a country in a given period. GDP per capita is often
considered an indicator of a country's standard of living. GDP per capita is not a measure of personal
income. Under economic theory, GDP per capita exactly equals the gross domestic income (GDI) per
capita.
2) High technology exports (current US$) - High-technology exports are products with high R&D
intensity, such as in aerospace, computers, pharmaceuticals, scientific instruments, and electricalmachinery.
3) Literacy Rate, youth total (% of people ages 15-24) - Youth (15-24) literacy rate (%). Total is the
number of people age 15 to 24 years who can both read and write with understanding a short simple
statement on their everyday life, divided by the population in that age group. Generally, literacy also
encompasses numeracy, the ability to make simple arithmetic calculations.
4) ICT goods exports (% of total goods exports) - Information and communication technology goods
exports include telecommunications, audio and video, computer and related equipment; electronic
components; and other information and communication technology goods. Software is excluded.
5) ICT good imports (% of total goods imports) - Information and communication technology goods
imports include telecommunications, audio and video, computer and related equipment; electronic
components; and other information and communication technology goods. Software is excluded.
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6) ICT service exports (% of service exports, BOP) - Information and communication technology
service exports include computer and communications services (telecommunications and postal and
courier services) and information services (computer data and news-related service transactions).
7) Secure Internet Servers - Secure servers are servers using encryption technology in Internet
transactions.
8) Mobile cellular subscribers per 100 people - Mobile cellular telephone subscriptions are subscriptions
to a public mobile telephone service using cellular technology, which provide access to the public
switched telephone network. Post-paid and prepaid subscriptions are included.
9) Compensation of employees (% of expense) - Compensation of employees consists of all payments in
cash, as well as in kind (such as food and housing), to employees in return for services rendered, and
government contributions to social insurance schemes such as social security and pensions that provide
benefits to employees.
10)Communications, computer, etc. (% of service exports, BOP) - Communications, computer
information, and other services (% of service exports, BoP) cover international telecommunications and
postal and courier services; computer data; news-related service transactions between residents and
nonresidents; construction services; royalties and license fees; miscellaneous business, professional, and
technical services; personal, cultural, and recreational services; and government services not included
elsewhere. Service exports refer to economic output of intangible commodities that may be produced,
transferred, and consumed at the same time. International transactions in services are defined by the
IMF's Balance of Payments Manual (1993), but definitions may nevertheless vary among reporting
economies.
11)Communications, computer, etc. (% of service imports, BOP) - Communications, computer
information, and other services (% of service imports, BoP) cover international telecommunications and
postal and courier services; computer data; news-related service transactions between residents and
nonresidents; construction services; royalties and license fees; miscellaneous business, professional, and
technical services; personal, cultural, and recreational services; and government services not included
elsewhere. Services imports refer to economic output of intangible commodities that may be produced
transferred, and consumed at the same time. International transactions in services are defined by the
International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Balance of Payments Manual (1993), but definitions may
nevertheless vary among reporting economies.
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12)Research and Development Expenditure (% of GDP) - Expenditures for research and development
are current and capital expenditures (both public and private) on creative work undertaken
systematically to increase knowledge, including knowledge of humanity, culture, and society, and the
use of knowledge for new applications. R&D covers basic research, applied research, and experimental
development.
13)Researchers in R&D (per million people) - Researchers in R&D are professionals engaged in the
conception or creation of new knowledge, products, processes, methods, or systems and in the
management of the projects concerned. Postgraduate PhD students (ISCED97 level 6) engaged in R&D
are included.
14)Patent Applications, residents - Patent applications are worldwide patent applications filed through the
Patent Cooperation Treaty procedure or with a national patent office for exclusive rights for an
invention--a product or process that provides a new way of doing something or offers a new technical
solution to a problem. A patent provides protection for the invention to the owner of the patent for a
limited period, generally 20 years.
15)Foreign Direct Investment, net outflows (% of GDP) - Foreign direct investment are the net inflows
of investment to acquire a lasting management interest (10 percent or more of voting stock) in an
enterprise operating in an economy other than that of the investor. It is the sum of equity capital,
reinvestment of earnings, other long-term capital, and short-term capital as shown in the balance of
payments. This series shows net outflows of investment from the reporting economy to the rest of the
world and is divided by GDP.
16)Foreign Direct Investment, net inflows (% of GDP) - Foreign direct investment are the net inflows of
investment to acquire a lasting management interest (10 percent or more of voting stock) in an enterprise
operating in an economy other than that of the investor. It is the sum of equity capital, reinvestment of
earnings, other long-term capital, and short-term capital as shown in the balance of payments. This
series shows net inflows (new investment inflows less disinvestment) in the reporting economy from
foreign investors, and is divided by GDP.
17)Internet users - Internet users are people with access to the worldwide network.
18)Workers Remittances, receipts (BOP, Current US$) - Workers' remittances are current transfers by
migrants who are employed or intend to remain employed for more than a year in another economy in
which they are considered residents. Some developing countries classify workers' remittances as a factor
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income receipt (and thus as a component of GNI). The World Bank adheres to international guidelines
in defining GNI, and its classification of workers' remittances may therefore differ from national
practices. This item shows receipts by the reporting country. Data are in current U.S. dollars.
19)Workers Remittances and Compensation of employees, paid (Current US$) - Workers' remittances
and compensation of employees comprise current transfers by migrant workers and wages and salaries
earned by nonresident workers. Remittances are classified as current private transfers from migrant
workers resident in the host country for more than a year, irrespective of their immigration status, to
recipients in their country of origin. Migrants' transfers are defined as the net worth of migrants who are
expected to remain in the host country for more than one year that is transferred from one country to
another at the time of migration. Compensation of employees is the income of migrants who have lived
in the host country for less than a year
20)Workers Remittances and Compensation of employees, received (Current US$) - Workers
remittances and compensation of employees comprise current transfers by migrant workers and wages
and salaries earned by nonresident workers. Data are the sum of three items defined in the fifth edition
of the IMF's Balance of Payments Manual: workers' remittances, compensation of employees, and
migrants' transfers. Remittances are classified as current private transfers from migrant workers resident
in the host country for more than a year, irrespective of their immigration status, to recipients in their
country of origin. Migrants' transfers are defined as the net worth of migrants who are expected to
remain in the host country for more than one year that is transferred from one country to another at the
time of migration. Compensation of employees is the income of migrants who have lived in the host
country for less than a year.
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LIST OF COUNTRIES TAKEN UP FOR STUDY:
Argentina
Armenia
Australia
Austria
Belarus
Belgium
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Brazil
Bulgaria
Canada
Chile
China
Colombia
Costa Rica
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Ecuador
Egypt, Arab Rep.
El Salvador
Greece
Guatemala
Hong Kong SAR, China
Hungary
Iceland
India
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Japan
Jordan
Kazakhstan
Kenya
Korea, Rep.
Kyrgyz Republic
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malaysia
Malta
Mauritius
Nigeria
Norway
Pakistan
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Russian Federation
Saudi Arabia
Serbia
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
South Africa
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Tanzania
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Estonia
Finland
France
Georgia
Germany
Mexico
Moldova
Morocco
Mozambique
Netherlands
New Zealand
Tunisia
Turkey
Uganda
Ukraine
United Kingdom
Sri Lanka
SPSS OUTPUT:-
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation
Communications,
computer, etc. (% of
service exports, BoP)
77 2.0757 71.7958 34.907684 17.2739175
Communications,
computer, etc. (% of
service imports, BoP)
77 8.9057 92.3660 33.604424 15.5391486
Compensation of
employees (% ofexpense)
77 3.5405 53.1533 20.058014 11.0147708
Foreign direct
investment, net inflows
(% of GDP)
77 -29.2288 392.3369 8.014834 44.7818310
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Foreign direct
investment, net outflows
(% of GDP)
77 -7.0371810000 486.89102000
00
11.089567117
337
60.260040606
6604
GDP per capita growth
(annual %)
77 -6.8124685000 8.9171110000 2.6921661074
49
2.7707335454
653
High technology exports
(current US$)
77 549792.0000 1.5851E11 1.337278E10 2.9012661E10
ICT goods exports (% of
total goods exports)
77 .0048 49.0706 6.272071 10.0029936
ICT goods imports (% of
total goods imports)
77 1.8254 42.7614 8.919870 7.0573362
ICT service exports (% of
service exports, BoP)
77 1.2230 38.9552 7.971393 7.2225944
Internet Users 77 289239.2310 1.0060E8 14826956.032
355
20358111.418
8755
Literacy rate, youth total
(% of people ages 15-24)
77 70.869370 100.000000 95.74627457 7.428002906
Mobile cellular
subscriptions (per 100
people)
77 32.8267 209.6399 115.248781 30.8002500
Patent applications,
residents
77 1 290081 7672.44 36395.963
Research and
development expenditure
(% of GDP)
77 .0261 3.4739 .986651 .9162458
Researchers in R&D
(per million people)
77 15.828320 7371.709500 1862.1139475
9
1872.1126762
82
Secure Internet servers 77 14 124255 9856.86 23670.617
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Workers' remittances and
compensation of
employees, paid (current
US$)
77 4900000.0950 2.7069E10 3.077666E9 5.9401530E9
Workers' remittances and
compensation of
employees, received
(current US$)
77 3200000.0480 2.2048E10 3.376910E9 4.4371203E9
Workers' remittances,
receipts (BoP, current
US$)
77 178612.944256
5250
5.3043696000
E10
3.3922436755
86E9
7.7429233256
377E9
Valid N (listwise) 77
Table 1: Minimum, Maximum, Mean and Standard Deviation of all Variables
Agglomeration Schedule
Stage
Cluster Combined
Coefficients
Stage Cluster First Appears
Next StageCluster 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 1 Cluster 2
1 23 29 3.910E16 0 0 8
2 12 50 8.008E16 0 0 10
3 39 76 9.805E16 0 0 11
4 57 73 1.508E17 0 0 8
5 31 41 2.299E17 0 0 15
6 9 43 3.020E17 0 0 9
7 5 69 3.924E17 0 0 15
8 23 57 4.446E17 1 4 12
9 9 51 4.558E17 6 0 17
10 12 34 4.875E17 2 0 21
11 39 54 5.189E17 3 0 2012 23 63 5.438E17 8 0 28
13 11 52 5.708E17 0 0 22
14 37 64 5.831E17 0 0 24
15 5 31 6.291E17 7 5 24
16 4 65 6.551E17 0 0 27
17 9 14 6.677E17 9 0 39
18 58 66 7.051E17 0 0 30
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19 6 22 8.535E17 0 0 23
20 39 71 9.535E17 11 0 25
21 12 77 1.002E18 10 0 27
22 11 27 1.112E18 13 0 33
23 3 6 1.298E18 0 19 36
24 5 37 1.300E18 15 14 25
25 5 39 1.324E18 24 20 28
26 46 61 1.337E18 0 0 5027 4 12 1.452E18 16 21 31
28 5 23 2.161E18 25 12 31
29 33 67 2.431E18 0 0 53
30 18 58 3.114E18 0 18 44
31 4 5 3.136E18 27 28 33
32 8 62 3.377E18 0 0 38
33 4 11 3.483E18 31 22 36
34 2 30 4.409E18 0 0 39
35 13 56 4.817E18 0 0 40
36 3 4 5.117E18 23 33 45
37 25 42 5.292E18 0 0 46
38 8 49 6.803E18 32 0 48
39 2 9 7.873E18 34 17 44
40 13 17 8.755E18 35 0 46
41 47 68 9.814E18 0 0 52
42 21 60 1.437E19 0 0 53
43 19 70 1.481E19 0 0 50
44 2 18 1.490E19 39 30 45
45 2 3 1.810E19 44 36 49
46 13 25 2.008E19 40 37 47
47 13 75 2.239E19 46 0 49
48 8 74 2.507E19 38 0 52
49 2 13 2.543E19 45 47 51
50 19 46 3.653E19 43 26 57
51 2 38 4.434E19 49 0 54
52 8 47 4.803E19 48 41 64
53 21 33 4.846E19 42 29 60
54 2 59 5.025E19 51 0 57
55 1 35 5.272E19 0 0 58
56 24 26 6.746E19 0 0 60
57 2 19 7.512E19 54 50 65
58 1 28 8.751E19 55 0 68
59 16 36 1.018E20 0 0 62
60 21 24 1.041E20 53 56 66
61 45 72 1.157E20 0 0 64
62 10 16 1.654E20 0 59 65
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63 40 55 1.935E20 0 0 71
64 8 45 2.525E20 52 61 67
65 2 10 2.637E20 57 62 66
66 2 21 3.212E20 65 60 69
67 8 20 4.832E20 64 0 69
68 1 7 5.007E20 58 0 72
69 2 8 5.762E20 66 67 70
70 2 15 7.898E20 69 0 7371 40 44 8.344E20 63 0 75
72 1 32 1.399E21 68 0 74
73 2 48 2.703E21 70 0 74
74 1 2 2.871E21 72 73 76
75 40 53 3.181E21 71 0 76
76 1 40 1.336E22 74 75 0
Table 2: Coefficients of each of the variables
List of Countries in Different Cluster
CLUSTER 1 CLUSTER 2 CLUSTER 3 CLUSTER 4
UNITED KINGDOM JAPAN UKRAINE PERU
SWITZERLAND GERMANY UGANDA NIGERIA
NETHERLANDS TURKEY MAURITIUS
MEXICO TUNISIA ICELAND
MALASIA TANZANIA CHILE
KOREA,REP SWEDEN
FRANCE SRI LANKA
SPAIN
SOUTH AFRICA
SLOVENIA
SLOVAK REPUBLIC
SERBIA
SAUDI ARABIA
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
ROMANIA
PORTUGAL
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POLAND
PHILIPPINES
PARAGUAY
PANAMA
PAKISTAN
NORWAY
NEW ZEALAND
MOZAMBIQUE
MOROCCO
MOLDOVA
MALTA
LUXEMBURG
LITHUANIA
LATVIA
KYRGYZ REPUBLIC
KENYA
KAZAKHSTAN
JORDAN
ITALY
ISRAEL
IRELAND
HUNGARY
HONG KONG SAR, CHINA
GUATEMALA
GREECE
GEORGIA
FINLAND
ESTONIA
EL SALVADOR
EGYPT, ARAB REP.
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Table 3: Different Countries under different Cluster Categories
Mean of Clusters Under Variables
Cluster Number of Case
1 2 3 4
Mean Mean Mean Mean
Communications,
computer, etc. (% of
service exports, BoP)
58.4287 40.7622 27.2048 34.1218
ECUADOR
DENMARK
CZECH REPUBLIC
CYPRUS
CROATIA
COSTA RICA
COLOMBIA
CANADA
BULGARIA
BRAZIL
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
BELGIUM
BELARUS
AUSTRIA
AUSTRALIA
ARMENIA
ARGENTINA
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Communications,
computer, etc. (% of
service imports, BoP)
36.3317 37.1707 27.7465 33.5865
Compensation of
employees (% of
expense)
6.0861 13.2084 23.9125 20.9567
Foreign direct
investment, net inflows
(% of GDP)
.7081 1.7340 4.2605 9.2426
Foreign direct
investment, net outflows
(% of GDP)
1.7372251500 3.7363953286 43.9054448073 9.5990512127
GDP per capita growth
(annual %)
1.0373970000 1.7005926445 4.2444179400 2.7316786994
High technology exports
(current US$)
1.4028E11 6.4480E10 1.8894E8 4.7119E9
ICT goods exports (% of
total goods exports)
7.8781 14.2811 .3307 5.8027
ICT goods imports (% of
total goods imports)
10.5816 13.9876 6.3104 8.5111
ICT service exports (% of
service exports, BoP)
5.1350 6.3343 3.2312 8.6195
Internet Users 84399070.363
7
31859300.349
8
13398686.7651 10839189.4840
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Literacy rate, youth total
(% of people ages 15-24)
99.000000 98.710253 92.768436 95.549987
Mobile cellular
subscriptions (per 100
people)
117.4819 114.1724 100.7640 116.4471
Patent applications,
residents
168564 24061 89 1346
Research and
development expenditure
(% of GDP)
2.9860 1.8403 .7506 .8471
Researchers in R&D
(per million people)
4466.852850 2792.977941 1541.249961 1701.459887
Secure Internet servers 89363 44949 621 4167
Workers' remittances and
compensation of
employees, paid (current
US$)
1.0191E10 1.2478E10 40120620.6410 2.0485E9
Workers' remittances and
compensation of
employees, received
(current US$)
6.5700E9 8.8100E9 2.5667E9 2.7362E9
Workers' remittances,
receipts (BoP, current
US$)
1.6505317750
E9
5.5445641929
E9
2.6159806881E1
0
1.4014399319E9
Table 4: Mean of each Cluster under different Variables
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Figure 1: Dendrogram using Average Linkage (Between Groups) depicting different cluster formations
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INTERPRETATION:-
The output is first derived by doing a hierarchical analysis to find the number of clusters that exist in the data. In
order to find the mean rating, descriptive statistics has been performed. The final step was a K-Means outputwith a predetermined number of clusters to be specified.
STAGE-1
At first, the data was analysed with the help of descriptive statistics. From the descriptive data, we have got the
mean rating of the countries based on the 20 macro-economic indicators. From the mean rating, we got the
average mean for the entire set of countries which gave us an idea of the mean value of each macroeconomic
variables.
An agglomeration schedule helped us to identify large differences in the coefficients. From the agglomeration
schedule, we use the difference between rows in a measure called coefficient in order to identify the number of
clusters in the data. A large difference in the coefficients values between any two rows indicates a solution
pertaining to the number of clusters which the lower row represents. Finally, based on our judgment, we chose
4-cluster solution.
The dendrogram, in addition to agglomeration schedule, provides a rescaled distance measure between various
clusters combines at various stages.
STAGE-2
In the second stage, we performed a K-MEANS cluster. This is because a K-Means Cluster procedure generally
gives more stable clusters, since it is an interactive procedure compared with the single pass hierarchical
methods. The output of the K-Means Cluster gave us the initial cluster centers, the country listing of cluster
membership i.e. which country belongs to which of the clusters.
Based on the study, we describe each of the characteristics of 4 clusters as follows:
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CLUSTER 1: "Pioneers- The trailblazer technocrats"
The countries belonging to this cluster are United Kingdom, Switzerland, Netherlands, Mexico, Malaysia,
Korea Republic and France. The countries has a higher mean in the service exports of Communication
computer etc. and a high mean in the service imports in the communication, computer etc. This means that the
countries are engaged in covering international communications, postal services, computer data, news related
services transactions between residents and non-residents. The countries are also engaged in exports and
imports of information and communication technology goods. Also, the countries has maximum number of
internet users as well as the mobile cellular subscribers among the other clusters. The countries even has secure
internet servers. The clusters has highest mean in the case of patents applications, Research and development
expenditure and the number of researchers in the R&D. This implies that these countries are engaged in
conceptions or creations of new knowledge, products, processes, methods or systems and in the management ofprojects concerned. A high mean score on patents applications denotes that the intellectual property and patents
of a new company entering in that company will be safe and protected by the Government rules and regulations.
This also verifies the fact about the literacy rate which is the highest as compared to other clusters.The clusters
also has a high mean in the case of workers remittances and compensations.
For a country, attracting an inflow of FDI strengthens the connection to world trade networks and finances its
development path. But the countries in this cluster are having a lowest mean of FDI inflow. This shows that
these countries might face a problem in the future regarding the development of the nation.
CLUSTER 2:"Challengers- The striving bullyboy"
The countries belonging to this cluster are Japan and Germany. The countries has a higher mean ratio in the
case of imports of communications, computer etc. This implies that the countries are spending heavily on
telecommunications, postal and courier services, computer data, news related service transactions between
residents and non-residents., construction services, royalties and license fees.
The countries also exporting products of high R&D intensity such as aerospace, computers, pharmaceuticals
scientific instruments and electrical machinery.
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CLUSTER 3: "Laggards- The shoddy Lazybones"
This cluster is comprised of 63 countries. The cluster has a higher mean rating of compensation of employees as
a percentage of expense. This implies that the countries in this cluster provide a good wage structure, social
security, insurance and pensions to the employees working in that country which is a conducive environment
for employment in IT Sector.
However, the countries lag in the field of patent applications, R&D expenditure. This implies that the foreign
companies intending to enter into these countries will not prefer to open up a subsidiary in these countries. The
literacy rate is lowest for these countries which means that these countries will not be able to provide adequate
skilled workforce required by an IT company.
The countries have a low mean rating in the case of ICT Goods and Services import and export. This shows thatthese countries are not having infrastructure in the IT sector as well as the allied sectors of communications,
electronic components and technological services. So, there is an entry barrier for IT Companies to enter into
these countries because the basic required infrastructure are not supported by these countries.
CLUSTER-4: "Mediocres- The under-achieving strugglers"
The countries which fall under this cluster are Peru, Nigeria, Mauritius, Iceland and Chile. Taking into the
consideration of the various macro-economic indicators, the countries have an average rating in almost all of the
indicators. This shows that the countries are in the development stage of becoming an attractive destination for
the IT Service Industry. In other words, we can say that the countries are in an evolving stages of various
researches and patent applications. These countries are on the verge of becoming favorable for the development
of IT Sector, which requires a boost from the Government in the form of policies, and from the private sector in
the form of funds and infrastructure. The countries under this cluster has a higher mean rating in the case of FDI
Net Inflows. This shows that these countries are being considered to have potential to develop. So, the investors
are pouring money in the form of FDI.
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REFERENCES:
TEXT-BOOKS:-
Nargundkar R.- Marketing Research 2nd edition Malhotra N.K.,- Marketing Research 5th edition
WEBSITES:-
http://data.worldbank.org/ http://data.worldbank.org/indicator
http://data.worldbank.org/http://data.worldbank.org/http://data.worldbank.org/indicatorhttp://data.worldbank.org/indicatorhttp://data.worldbank.org/indicatorhttp://data.worldbank.org/
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