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2012-10-26 1 Levelised costs of renewable Energy – a system operator perspective (draft slides)
Levelised costs of renewable Energy – a power system operator perspective Conference on Levelised Costs of Renewable Energy, IEA-RETD and IRENA-RETD, Bonn, October 26’th 2012
Anders Bavnhøj Hansen,
Chief consultant
Strategic Planning
Energinet.dk, Denmark
E-mail: abh@energinet.dk
3
Energy strategy in Denmark
Political targets:
• 2020: 50% of traditional electricity
consumption covered by windpower
(decision supported by 95% of parliament)
• 2035: All electricity and heat based on
renewable energy
(governmental position)
• 2050: The total* energy supply based on
renewable energy
(target supported by 95% of parliament)
*Total energy system incl. transport, industry etc.
A holistic aproach when power system is planned
2012-10-26
4
Levelised costs of renewable Energy – a system operator perspective (draft slides)
Wind
Photovoltaic
Wave..
Solar heat
Geothermal
Electric
(light, it,
process..)
Transport
Industry
proces and
materials
Heating
Power
Liquid
fuels
District
heat
Biomass
Bio residues
Waste
Energy
ressources (RE)
RE-gas
Energy carriers in system Energy services
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Wind Sun Wave Heat(sun, geo. and
heat pump)
Biomass andwaste (incl.
slurry)
PJ
per
ye
ar
Used today (2008)
Potential
2050 (recommendation)
5
Domestic renewable resources to reach 100% renewable energy by 2050 Danish Commission on Climate Change Policy, 2010
Fluctuating
power production
Gross energy consumption in
Denmark2011
Gross energy consumption 2050
Energinet.dk
analysed high
wind scenario
Wind scenario
2012-04-23
Analysed scenarios for energy system
6
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Wind-
scenario
Bio-
scenario
CDM-
scenario
CCS-
scenario
PJ/
year
Bio-massimport
Cleandev. mech(CDM)
CCS
Oil
Coal
Natural gas
Bio, waste, geotherm.
Wind, photovolt and
wave
Gross energy for total energy supply in DK 2050
2012-10-26 7 Levelised costs of renewable Energy – a system operator perspective (draft slides)
From 20 % to 50 % Wind power in 2020 – a challenge to balance
A need for resources to balance fluctuating wind-power International integration of energy systems Integration with gas, heat and transport
DK West January 2008 Demand and Wind power January 2008 + 3,000 MW
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Wind power Demand
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Wind power Demand
2050 ?
17 GW wind
4 GW solar
1 GW wave
Electricity demand
2020
Wind
power
Wind
power
2012-10-26 8 Levelised costs of renewable Energy – a system operator perspective (draft slides)
Elforbrug (klassisk) og Fluktuerende produktion
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
1 61 121 181 241 301 361 421 481 541 601 661 721 781 841 901 961 1021 1081 1141 1201 1261 1321
El
(MW
)
Klassisk elforbrug Vind-Bølge-Sol
Example wind scenario long horizon (2050) Fossil independent energy system with wind power as a major energy source (17 GW wind + 4 GW solar + 1 GW wave)
60 days Jan-feb.
Need for peak load capacity – security of supply
Need for integration of windpower – high production hours
Low production wind, photovoltage, wave
Classical cons. Wind, PV
Power consumption and fluctuating production Peak production wind and photo-voltage
Need for
integration of
biomass and
waste in
a volatile power
system
Need for fuels
for non
electrified
services
El. demand
Electricity production costs 2030
2012-10-26 9 Levelised costs of renewable Energy – a system operator perspective (draft slides)
2012-10-26 10 Levelised costs of renewable Energy – a system operator perspective (draft slides)
Costs with 1000 operation hours a year
Electricity price simulated for 2050 in Denmark
2012-10-26 11 Levelised costs of renewable Energy – a system operator perspective (draft slides)
West DK
(€/MWh)
East DK
(€/MWh)
Offshore wind 48 64
Land wind 60 60
Photovoltaic 73Source: Climate commission 2010
DKK/MWh
Levelised costs of renewable Energy – a system operator perspective (draft slides)
2 x 200 MW
Rødsand
Connecting offshore windpower to the grid
Each dot represents a 200
MW offshore wind farm –
supplying 200,000
households with
electricity.
2012-10-26 12
13
50% wind power share in
2020
Transport Gas transmission
Electricity transmission Heat transmission
RE gas & biofuels Conv. elec. generation CHP Heat generation
Electr. consumption
Electricity storage
Neighbouring countries Heat pumps
Electric boilers
Heat storage
Heat consumption
Closer coupling between energy systems
2012-10-26 Levelised costs of renewable Energy – a system operator perspective (draft slides)
14
CH4+C02
International gas infrastrucure
Anaerobic
gassification
(biogas)
Underground storage
(salt caverns) Underground
storage (aquifer)
Upgrading
Methan (CH4)
Distrrict heat (DH)
Elforbrug (klassisk) og Fluktuerende produktion
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
1 61 121 181 241 301 361 421 481 541 601 661 721 781 841 901 961 1021 1081 1141 1201 1261 1321
El
(MW
)
Klassisk elforbrug Vind-Bølge-Sol
International power grid infrastructure
District heat (DH)
Gas
storages
Peak shawing
power
Gasturbine, CC,
Fuelcell etc.
Electricity (at high price)
Electrolysis
Alcalic,
SOEC fuelcell
Electricity (at low price)
H2
Biofuel
Cathalysis
Methanol, DME,
Syn gasoline, H2 etc. District heat (DH)
Biofuel (Methanol, DME, Syn gasoline.)
Biomass
CHP
Biomass
and waste
DH
Thermal
gassification
H2+CO
Biofuel Digest
Ethanol
O2 Heat
PHEV with methanol
fuelcell
DH
Integration of electricity, gas and heat systems
Flexibility in energy systems to integrate wind power (scenario 2050)
Season-storage
Energy-content
=100 GWh
Energyicontent if stored as methan (eksist.
gas storage in cavern/aquifer)
(Energy content if stored as hydrogen)
Storage capacity (input of electricity)
Seconds
Electr. vehicl.
Indiv. heat pump
Heat pump in
district heating
Minutes Hours Days Weeks Months
International integration with hydropower a primary issue for flexibility
Heat pumps and electric vehicles – flexibility for hours
Gas system to deliver further flexibility and security of supply
Gas storage
Conclusions
• RE resources from wind/solar are huge and biomass is a scarce
resource. A need for flexible integration of fluctuating electricty
(wind, solar) with efficient use of biomass and waste
• Long term scenario studies (technical and economical) show that RE
from wind and solar could deliver a high amount of total gross
energy supply if the energy system is designed to cope with
situation.
• Infrastructure investments planned socio economic, based on long
term holistic analysis. Mutual benefit on interconnectors and
offshore grid
• Comprehensive integration of the energy systems
(el/heat/gas/liquid fuel) is needed to solve the challenge. The gas
system can serve as a system integrator. A need for R&D.
• A need for solid market acceptance of renewables delivered through
grid (power and gas) by use of market solutions as RE certificates
• A need for an intelligent energy-system (Smart Grid
TSO/DSO/Enduser-level) and market solutions to handle the
fluctuating power
• If the wind/bio/waste integration could be solved, the solutions
might also be used for solar/bio/waste integrations
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