Jurnal Review Manajemen Resiko

JOURNAL REVIEWMANAJEMEN PROYEK

Asep Hapidin | Aditya P Nugraha | PSIM | 2016

RISK, UNCERTAINTIES AND GOVERNANCE IN MEGAPROJECTS : A CRITICAL DISCUSSION OF

ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATION

Joe Sanderson Department of Management, School of Business, University of Birmingham, Birmingham - UK

Overview

1Pendahuluan

2Tujuan

4Kesimpulan

3Pembahasan

INTRODUCTIONRISK, UNCERTAINTIES AND GOVERNANCE IN MEGAPROJECTS : A CRITICAL DISCUSSION OF ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS

INTRODUCTIONBackground

•“Governance“:moreandmorepopularinprojectmanagement.

•Governance:Formsoforganiza6ondesigned,Governing:micro-processesoforganizingemerging.•MegaProject,TheLargeEngineeringprojectorTheService-ledProject

INTRODUCTIONMega Project?

a) Project: Substantial physical infrastructure or asset with a life expectancy in decades; b) Client is often a government or public sector organisation; c) Main contractor (consortium) of contractors are usually privately-owned and financed;

INTRODUCTIONMega Project?

d) Contractor often retains an ownership stake in the infrastructure/asset after the construction phase is completed e) Is paid by the client for the service that flows from the asset's operation or use over a number of years >> “Public-private partnership”

MENGAPA PENULIS TERTARIK MENGANGKAT TOPIK INI.

Joe Sanderson

INTRODUCTIONChallenges for Project Manager

a)Highlevelsofcomplexityinvariousdimensions,b)Poten6alforsignificantconflictsofinterest,c)Theneedtomakedecisionsandtoactundercondi@onsofuncertaintyaswellasrisk

INTRODUCTIONChallenges for Project Manager

Results:-IntractableChallenges(hardtocontrol/dealwith),-Significantcostoverruns,-Delaysincomple6on -Failuretodeliver.

INTRODUCTIONChallenges for Project Manager

Paradox:Megaprojectshavebecomeincreasinglypopularinrecentyears.

PURPOSERISK, UNCERTAINTIES AND GOVERNANCE IN MEGAPROJECTS : A CRITICAL DISCUSSION OF ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS

INTRODUCTION

PURPOSEa)Differentexplaina6onofthesignificantperformanceproblemsexhibitedbymanymegaprojects,b)Cri6callyexaminestheirsuggestedgovernancesolu6ons.c)Toprovideabroadcategorisa6onofdifferenttypesofexplana6onandassociatedsolu6ons,d)Toiden6fyanysignificantcommonali6esbetweenexplana6ons.

INTRODUCTION

TUJUANa)Memberikanbeberapamacamdeskripsikendalakinerjasignifikanyangterjadidibanyakmegaproyekb)Menjelaskansolusipengelolaanyangditawarkan.c)Menyajikanpenggolonganumumdeksripsidansolusinyad)mengiden6fikasikesamaandeskripsiyangdiperoleh.

INTRODUCTION

METHODOLOGY

•Examiningeachauthor'sfundamentalepistemologicalassump@onsaboutdecision-makercogni@onandaboutdecision-makerviewsonthenatureofthefuture.•Snowballeffectonselectedwords&phrases.

MENGAPA PENULIS MENGGUNAKAN METODOLOGI INI?

Joe Sanderson

INTRODUCTION

METHODOLOGY•Banyakrisettentangmanajemenproyek,Megaproyek:Tidakbanyak.•studiyangdilakukanbukanstuditeknis/lapangan.namunmerupakanstudiliteratur•Studiyangdilakukanbersifatkualita6fdanmerupakan6njauantertulisatassuatufenomena

RESULT & DISCUSSIONRISK, UNCERTAINTIES AND GOVERNANCE IN MEGAPROJECTS : A CRITICAL DISCUSSION OF ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS

RESULT & DISCUSSION

3 ALTERNATIVES OF DECISION-MAKER COGNITIONCogni6onCategory1:op@mising>>Unlimited6me,informa6onandcogni6vecapacity,andmakechoicesthatmaximisetheirbestinterests

Cogni6onCategory2:Op@misingwithinLimits>>Constraintsoflimited6me,informa6onandcogni6vecapacity,buts6llmaximisetheirbestinterests

Cogni6onCategory3:sa@sfying>>Constraintsoflimited6me,informa6onandcogni6vecapacity,andmakechoicesthatsa@sfytheiraspira6onlevels

Knownas:FullRa-onality&BoundedRa-onality

RESULT & DISCUSSION

RISK OR UNCERTAINTY?Megaprojectsalwaysdealsmoregenerallywithriskanduncertainty(Mega)Projectmanagementaims:-Toremove(orsubstan6allyreduce)uncertaintyaboutmee6ngspecifiedobjec6ves.-MegaprojectmanagementtypicallydevotesignificantaXen6ontotechniquesandmodelsthataredesignedtoiden@fy,assessandul@matelymanagetherisksanduncertain@esassociated.

RESULT & DISCUSSION

RISKS & UNCERTAINTIES

RISK CATEGORY 1 A PRIORI

UNCERTAINTIES CATEGORY 1 SUBJECTIVE

RISK CATEGORY 2 STATISTICAL

UNCERTAINTIESCATEGORY 2 SOCIALISED

RESULT & DISCUSSION

RISKSRiskCategory1:aprioriprobabilityAbletoassignobjec6veprobabili6estoaknownrangeoffutureevents.

RiskCategory2:sta@s@calprobabilityAbletoassignobjec6veprobabili6estoaknownrangeoffutureeventsonthebasisofempirical/sta@s@calpastdata.

RESULT & DISCUSSION

UNCERTAINTIES UncertaintyCategory1:subjec@veprobabilityNodatatoassignobjec6veprobabili6estoeach.Insteadtheyuseexpecta@onsgroundedinhistoricalprac6cetoes6matethesubjec6veprobabilityoffutureevents—akintoscenarioplanning.

UncertaintyCategory2:socialisedNorelevantdata.Thefutureisinherentlyunknowable,becauseitissociallyconstructedandmaybearliTleornorela@ontothepastorthepresent.

RESULT & DISCUSSION

WHY MEGAPROJECTS FAILSExplana@ontypeA:StrategicRent-SeekingBehaviourStraigh\orward‘decep6onandlying’astac6csaimedatge_ngprojectsstarted.Explana@ontypeBMisalignedandUnderdevelopedGovernanceIncoherent,inappropriateorunderdevelopedgovernancearrangements,notcapableofhandlingtherisks,uncertain6esandturbulence.

RESULT & DISCUSSION

Explana@ontypeC:Diverseprojectculturesandra@onali@es.Projectmanagersunderstandinputstoandoutputsfromtheprojectinverydifferent,incompleteando`encompe6ngways.

WHY MEGAPROJECTS FAILS

RESULT & DISCUSSION

WHY MEGAPROJECTS FAILS : SOLUTIONSExplana@ontypeA:StrategicRent-SeekingBehaviour-Explicitlegalrequirement-Nobadpoli@ciansaround.-Improveaccountability:Givegreaterinvolvementofstakeholdergroupsandcivilsocietytoensurepropertransparency;comprehensiveregulatoryandriskmanagementplan;usingprivatesectorriskcapitalasthemajorsourceoffinance.

RESULT & DISCUSSION

Explana@ontypeB:MisalignedandUnderdevelopedGovernance-Buildstronger,morecoopera@veandmoreflexiblerela@onshipsbetweenprojectpar@cipants.Examples:allianceownershipstructure;financialguaranteesfromgovernmenttosupportprojectfinanciers.thatthegovernancemechanismsselectedanddesignedmustbeappropriatetothepar6cularcontextandcharacteris6csofaproject

WHY MEGAPROJECTS FAILS : SOLUTIONS

RESULT & DISCUSSION

Explana@ontypeC:Diverseprojectculturesandra@onali@es.Anumberofgovernancemechanismswereusedtounderpinthiscollabora6veprojectculture.Aformalstatementofkeyvaluesasabasisforresolvingdisputesinternallyandarisk/rewardregimebasedonmone@zedkeyperformanceindictors(KPIs).

WHY MEGAPROJECTS FAILS : SOLUTIONS

CONCLUSIONRISK, UNCERTAINTIES AND GOVERNANCE IN MEGAPROJECTS : A CRITICAL DISCUSSION OF ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS

CONCLUSIONS▸ Threedis@ncttypesofmegaprojectissue:Thestrategicrent-seeking,misalignedor

underdevelopedgovernancemechanisms,anddiverseandcompe6ngprojectculturesandra6onali6es

▸ Project-as-prac@ceforresearchers.Benefit:▸ First,learnmicro-analy6cfocusupontheday-to-dayac6vi6esofmanagement

prac66onersandtheirmeaninginaspecificse_ng.▸ Second,theapproachdrawsaXen6ontothewiderangeofactorsinvolved,both

formallyandinformally,increa6ngaproject,andinmakingithappen.▸ Third,itemphasizestherelevanceandimportanceofemergent,non-programmed,in

otherwordsspontaneous,workac6vi6esforanunderstandingofhowaprojectdevelops.

THANK YOUAsep Hapidin | H251150421 Aditya P Nugraha | H251150471