Innovation Design Efficiency Applications Sustainability
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Innovation Design Efficiency Applications Sustainability
GLOBAL INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
AND THE IMPLICATIONS
FOR PUMP MARKETS
14 Marzo 2018 Jeremy Leonard
Global industry overview▪ The global industrial economy in in its strongest position
in at least three years. The forces that have fuelled the
2017 rebound remain in place, and some regions are
arguably strengthening further.
▪ Spare capacity is decreasing to pre-financial crisis levels
across the developed world, and this, combined with ready
access to finance and strong confidence in a robust demand
environment, provide the essential ingredients for a
substantial uptick in business investment.
▪ Global trade growth is cooling, though still well above the
lacklustre rates of 2014-16. Asia is showing signs of
weakness as the motors of world export demand shift toward
Europe and North America.
▪ Europe has led the developed world in terms of industrial
dynamism. Germany in particular is set to see industrial
production accelerate to 3.0% next year, fastest among the
Eurozone majors, though other European countries will also
see growth rates accelerate considerably.
▪ Corporate tax cuts and expensing provisions for capex will
lead to a sharp improvement in US investment demand this
year, adding to the strong recovery in unconventional oil
extraction that has seen sector investment there surge by
nearly 60% after two straight years of steep declines.
14 Marzo 2018 Jeremy Leonard
Global outlook for industrial production
2016 % share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021United States 15.9 -1.2 2.0 4.3 3.1 0.8 0.8
Eurozone 13.9 1.5 2.9 3.7 2.0 1.6 1.3
UK 1.8 1.3 2.0 3.5 1.3 1.0 1.1
Eastern Europe 2.1 4.0 6.1 4.6 3.9 3.1 2.9
Japan 7.9 -0.2 4.7 2.8 0.8 -0.8 1.1
China 23.6 6.1 6.1 5.3 4.6 4.3 4.1
India 2.9 5.2 3.3 5.8 6.3 6.5 6.5
Russia 2.2 1.4 0.8 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.7
Brazil 2.1 -6.7 2.6 3.8 3.5 3.0 2.6
World 100.0 1.8 3.8 4.1 3.2 2.4 2.5
(Annual percentage changes unless specified)
World: Industrial production forecasts
GLOBAL PUMP OUTLOOK
14 Marzo 2018 Jeremy Leonard
Overview of global pump report
▪ Historic data and 5-year forecasts for pumps (reciprocating, rotary, centrifugal, “other”,
parts) across 71 countries and 16 end-use sectors. Data sources are transparent, and
product mappings and assumptions are fully documented.
▪ Modelling architecture driven by Oxford Economics’ integrated suite of global
macroeconomic and sector models. Market size of each pump type is a function of output
and investment trends in pump-using industries, as well as other factors such as exchange
rates, prices, etc.
▪ Written report includes detailed analysis of pump market forecasts as well as a wealth of
sector-specific and macroeconomic analysis to connect the dots between economic
conditions and the pump market outlook.
▪ Interactive Excel spreadsheet allows users to create custom charts for desired
geographies, end-use markets and pump types.
**DATA REVISIONS AND UPDATED FORECASTS COMING IN MAY 2018**
14 Marzo 2018 Jeremy Leonard
APAC accounts for half of $58bnglobal pump market
14 Marzo 2018 Jeremy Leonard
Market turnaround in 2017 to continue
▪ The global pump market is estimated to
have expanded by 3.9% last year after
several years of decline.
▪ Market is still significantly higher than
prior to the financial crisis—illustrating
the tremendous impact of growth in
Asia.
▪ Growth of over 4% this year is likely,
given the strengthening momentum in
the global investment cycle since the
last forecast update about 9 months
ago.
14 Marzo 2018 Jeremy Leonard
Water-intensive end use sectors should shine
14 Marzo 2018 Jeremy Leonard
Centrifugal segment to outperform overall market
14 Marzo 2018 Jeremy Leonard
Interesting dynamics in Middle East as well
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Thank you for the shared attention
Jeremy Leonard
Director of Global Industry Services
jleonard@oxfordeconomics.com
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