Innovation Design Efficiency Applications Sustainability

Innovation Design Efficiency Applications Sustainability

GLOBAL INDUSTRY OUTLOOK

AND THE IMPLICATIONS

FOR PUMP MARKETS

14 Marzo 2018 Jeremy Leonard

Global industry overview▪ The global industrial economy in in its strongest position

in at least three years. The forces that have fuelled the

2017 rebound remain in place, and some regions are

arguably strengthening further.

▪ Spare capacity is decreasing to pre-financial crisis levels

across the developed world, and this, combined with ready

access to finance and strong confidence in a robust demand

environment, provide the essential ingredients for a

substantial uptick in business investment.

▪ Global trade growth is cooling, though still well above the

lacklustre rates of 2014-16. Asia is showing signs of

weakness as the motors of world export demand shift toward

Europe and North America.

▪ Europe has led the developed world in terms of industrial

dynamism. Germany in particular is set to see industrial

production accelerate to 3.0% next year, fastest among the

Eurozone majors, though other European countries will also

see growth rates accelerate considerably.

▪ Corporate tax cuts and expensing provisions for capex will

lead to a sharp improvement in US investment demand this

year, adding to the strong recovery in unconventional oil

extraction that has seen sector investment there surge by

nearly 60% after two straight years of steep declines.


Global outlook for industrial production

2016 % share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021United States 15.9 -1.2 2.0 4.3 3.1 0.8 0.8

Eurozone 13.9 1.5 2.9 3.7 2.0 1.6 1.3

UK 1.8 1.3 2.0 3.5 1.3 1.0 1.1

Eastern Europe 2.1 4.0 6.1 4.6 3.9 3.1 2.9

Japan 7.9 -0.2 4.7 2.8 0.8 -0.8 1.1

China 23.6 6.1 6.1 5.3 4.6 4.3 4.1

India 2.9 5.2 3.3 5.8 6.3 6.5 6.5

Russia 2.2 1.4 0.8 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.7

Brazil 2.1 -6.7 2.6 3.8 3.5 3.0 2.6

World 100.0 1.8 3.8 4.1 3.2 2.4 2.5

(Annual percentage changes unless specified)

World: Industrial production forecasts

GLOBAL PUMP OUTLOOK


Overview of global pump report

▪ Historic data and 5-year forecasts for pumps (reciprocating, rotary, centrifugal, “other”,

parts) across 71 countries and 16 end-use sectors. Data sources are transparent, and

product mappings and assumptions are fully documented.

▪ Modelling architecture driven by Oxford Economics’ integrated suite of global

macroeconomic and sector models. Market size of each pump type is a function of output

and investment trends in pump-using industries, as well as other factors such as exchange

rates, prices, etc.

▪ Written report includes detailed analysis of pump market forecasts as well as a wealth of

sector-specific and macroeconomic analysis to connect the dots between economic

conditions and the pump market outlook.

▪ Interactive Excel spreadsheet allows users to create custom charts for desired

geographies, end-use markets and pump types.

**DATA REVISIONS AND UPDATED FORECASTS COMING IN MAY 2018**


APAC accounts for half of $58bnglobal pump market


Market turnaround in 2017 to continue

▪ The global pump market is estimated to

have expanded by 3.9% last year after

several years of decline.

▪ Market is still significantly higher than

prior to the financial crisis—illustrating

the tremendous impact of growth in

Asia.

▪ Growth of over 4% this year is likely,

given the strengthening momentum in

the global investment cycle since the

last forecast update about 9 months

ago.


Water-intensive end use sectors should shine


Centrifugal segment to outperform overall market


Interesting dynamics in Middle East as well

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Thank you for the shared attention

Jeremy Leonard

Director of Global Industry Services

[email protected]

Innovation Design Efficiency Applications Sustainability

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