GTM Research: US PV Market Trends and Insights

The State and Future of U.S. Solar

Shayle KannVice President, ResearchGreentech Media

U.S. Solar Market Insight ConferenceDecember 2013

2013: 20 States Over 20 MW

2013 Forecasted U.S. PV Installations by State and Market Segment, Top 20 StatesSource: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight

Who Sells Solar?

Car DealersHome

ImprovementHome Automation

Environmental Groups

Electricity Retailers

Solar Salespeople

Source: GTM Research

An Installation Every Four Minutes

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

578

279

194

125 108 79

52 35 18 12 9 6 4

Min

ute

s Per

Inst

allati

on

2013: One In-stallation Every

Four Minutes

U.S. PV Installation Frequency, 2001-2013Source: GTM Research

Our Checklist

In order to be mainstream, solar must be…

a primary source of new electric capacity

U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment

>5x Growth in Three Years

Quarterly U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment, Q1 2010-Q3 2013Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight

Varied Growth by Segment

Quarterly U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment, Q1 2010-Q3 2013Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight

2.3x Growth

2.3x Growth

23x Growth

We’re Number Two!

New Capacity Additions, Q1-Q3 2012 and 2013. FERC figures used for all technologies other than solar, GTM/SEIA figures used for solarSource: FERC, GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight

U.S.A.! U.S.A! U.S.A.!

Cumulative New PV Installations in 2013, U.S. vs. Germany

Source: GTM Research

Our Checklist

In order to be mainstream, solar must be…

cost-competitive without reliance on fickle incentives

a primary source of new electric capacity

We are the 82%

2013 U.S. PV Installations by State, Q1-Q3 2013Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight

California: No Rebate? No Problem

California Residential PV Installations by Source, IOU TerritorySource: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight

taken seriously by the electricity industry

Our Checklist

In order to be mainstream, solar must be…

cost-competitive without reliance on fickle incentives

a primary source of new electric capacity

The Utility Transformation Report Bandwagon

2013 Net Metering Battlegrounds

Source: GTM Research

CA

ID

AZ

TX

CO

GALA

MOVA

VT

Utility Affiliate Purchases

VC InvestmentsCompetitive

Retailer Channel Partnerships

Project Investment

Utility Investment in Solar

Source: GTM Research

Our Checklist

In order to be mainstream, solar must be…

cost-competitive without reliance on fickle incentives

a primary source of new electric capacity

taken seriously by the electricity industry

bankable

Project Finance Milestones Abound

Project Finance in Residential Solar

Stock Performance: NRG Yield

Source: GTM Research, Google Finance

Setting the Precedent: SolarCity’s First Securitized Portfolio

Source: GTM Research, Google Finance

bankable

taken seriously by the electricity industry

Our Checklist

In order to be mainstream, solar must be…

cost-competitive without reliance on fickle incentives

a primary source of new electric capacity

So Where Do We Go From Here?

Forecasted Cumulative U.S. PV Installations, 2008-2027

Source: GTM Research

Thank You!

Shayle KannVice President, ResearchGreentech Mediakann@gtmresearch.com