Transcript
Gridlock? Gridlock? –– Transport in 2030Transport in 2030
Solving Congestion in South Solving Congestion in South
East EnglandEast England
14th November, 2007
Adrian ShooterChairman, ATOC
London’s economy depends on its railways
“You can’t build your way out of congestion”
London Commuting
People entering central London during morning peak (thousands)
2006
1.3%
1.6%
0.6%
0.7%
7%
10%
34%
44%
Surface Rail
LU & DLR
Bus
Coach/Minibus
Car
Motor Cycle
Pedal Cycle
Taxi
Source: DfT Transport Statistics Great Britain 2007 Edition; Table 1.6
Where are we Going?
Passenger Kilometres since 1995/96
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1995/9
6
1996/9
7
1997/9
8
1998/9
9
1999/0
0
2000/0
1
2001/0
2
2002/0
3
2003/0
4
2004/0
5
2005/0
6
2006/0
7
2007/0
8
2008/0
9
2009/1
0
2010/1
1
2011/1
2
2012/1
3
2013/1
4
2014/1
5
2015/1
6
2016/1
7
2017/1
8
2018/1
9
2019/2
0
2020/2
1
2021/2
2
2022/2
3
2023/2
4
2024/2
5
2025/2
6
2026/2
7
2027/2
8
2028/2
9
2029/3
0
2030/3
1
2031/3
2
2032/3
3
2033/3
4
2034/3
5
2035/3
6
2036/3
7
Pa
ss
en
ge
r K
M (
Billio
n)
TfL Forecast
25% by 2025
White Paper
Forecast
22% by 2014
Ruth Kelly
50% by 2037
London Commuting
Passenger KM
99/00 to 06/07
Total Passenger KM
95/06 to 06/07
Note: Percentage Increase on 2005/06 Pass KM is assumed in all forecasts
Source of historical Pass KM : pre 99/00 = Lennon data (ATOC); 99/00 - 06/07 = ORR's National Rail Trends ver. Q1 07-08, Table 1.1b
European Comparisons
42.240.9 40.4
33.928.3
22.1 22.119.6
11.5 10.17.4
5.33.2 1.2
-13.3
-17.6
-24.1
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
% i
ncre
ase
Gre
at B
ritai
nIre
land
Bel
gium
Franc
eS
pain
Ger
man
yD
enmar
k
Sw
itzer
land
(SB
B)
Holla
nd (N
S)
Finla
ndH
ungar
yIta
lyA
ustri
aN
orway
Cze
ch R
epubl
icP
olan
dP
ortu
gal
Country
Passenger Kilometres - 2006 against the Base Year (1995/6/7)
New Line Capacity: HSL1
London/SE Capacity Schemes
What do Passengers want?
• Reliable, clean trains
• Good information
• Seat or standing?
• Value for money
• Easy ticketing
What the White Paper Offers
• Improved performance to 92.3%
• 1300 new coaches (2/3 in S.E.)
• Platform and depot works
• Thameslink project
• Reading rebuilding
• £150m on stations
• £200m on freight schemes
Clean, reliable trains; new depots
Double deck trains?
Longer trains
Track capacity
Station capacity
Schemes to unblock capacity
Access: bus
Access: cycling/walking
Access: car
London Overground
Electrification Benefits
• Acceleration rate improves capacity
• Alternative energy sources
• Regenerative braking
• Lighter vehicles
• Cheaper rolling stock cost
• Lower maintenance costs
Regenerative braking saves 16% energy consumption
Conclusions
Rail solutions:
• Longer trains, platforms
• Access to stations
• Schemes to unblock capacity
• Electrification
• New lines
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