Gridlock? –Transport in 2030

Gridlock? Gridlock? –– Transport in 2030Transport in 2030

Solving Congestion in South Solving Congestion in South

East EnglandEast England

14th November, 2007

Adrian ShooterChairman, ATOC

London’s economy depends on its railways

“You can’t build your way out of congestion”

London Commuting

People entering central London during morning peak (thousands)

2006

1.3%

1.6%

0.6%

0.7%

7%

10%

34%

44%

Surface Rail

LU & DLR

Bus

Coach/Minibus

Car

Motor Cycle

Pedal Cycle

Taxi

Source: DfT Transport Statistics Great Britain 2007 Edition; Table 1.6

Where are we Going?

Passenger Kilometres since 1995/96

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1995/9

6

1996/9

7

1997/9

8

1998/9

9

1999/0

0

2000/0

1

2001/0

2

2002/0

3

2003/0

4

2004/0

5

2005/0

6

2006/0

7

2007/0

8

2008/0

9

2009/1

0

2010/1

1

2011/1

2

2012/1

3

2013/1

4

2014/1

5

2015/1

6

2016/1

7

2017/1

8

2018/1

9

2019/2

0

2020/2

1

2021/2

2

2022/2

3

2023/2

4

2024/2

5

2025/2

6

2026/2

7

2027/2

8

2028/2

9

2029/3

0

2030/3

1

2031/3

2

2032/3

3

2033/3

4

2034/3

5

2035/3

6

2036/3

7

Pa

ss

en

ge

r K

M (

Billio

n)

TfL Forecast

25% by 2025

White Paper

Forecast

22% by 2014

Ruth Kelly

50% by 2037

London Commuting

Passenger KM

99/00 to 06/07

Total Passenger KM

95/06 to 06/07

Note: Percentage Increase on 2005/06 Pass KM is assumed in all forecasts

Source of historical Pass KM : pre 99/00 = Lennon data (ATOC); 99/00 - 06/07 = ORR's National Rail Trends ver. Q1 07-08, Table 1.1b

European Comparisons

42.240.9 40.4

33.928.3

22.1 22.119.6

11.5 10.17.4

5.33.2 1.2

-13.3

-17.6

-24.1

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

% i

ncre

ase

Gre

at B

ritai

nIre

land

Bel

gium

Franc

eS

pain

Ger

man

yD

enmar

k

Sw

itzer

land

(SB

B)

Holla

nd (N

S)

Finla

ndH

ungar

yIta

lyA

ustri

aN

orway

Cze

ch R

epubl

icP

olan

dP

ortu

gal

Country

Passenger Kilometres - 2006 against the Base Year (1995/6/7)

New Line Capacity: HSL1

London/SE Capacity Schemes

What do Passengers want?

• Reliable, clean trains

• Good information

• Seat or standing?

• Value for money

• Easy ticketing

What the White Paper Offers

• Improved performance to 92.3%

• 1300 new coaches (2/3 in S.E.)

• Platform and depot works

• Thameslink project

• Reading rebuilding

• £150m on stations

• £200m on freight schemes

Clean, reliable trains; new depots

Double deck trains?

Longer trains

Track capacity

Station capacity

Schemes to unblock capacity

Access: bus

Access: cycling/walking

Access: car

London Overground

Electrification Benefits

• Acceleration rate improves capacity

• Alternative energy sources

• Regenerative braking

• Lighter vehicles

• Cheaper rolling stock cost

• Lower maintenance costs

Regenerative braking saves 16% energy consumption

Conclusions

Rail solutions:

• Longer trains, platforms

• Access to stations

• Schemes to unblock capacity

• Electrification

• New lines