Getting the Big Things Right Presentation by Al From Democratic Leadership Councils Congressional Staff Retreat March 7, 2003 How Democrats.
Post on 27-Mar-2015
215 Views
Preview:
Transcript
Getting the Big Things Right
Presentation by Al FromDemocratic Leadership Council’s
Congressional Staff Retreat March 7, 2003
www.ndol.org
How Democrats Can Come Back in 2004
Reality Therapy
• Democrats face an uphill, but not impossible, battle to win the White House in 2004.
•Difficult because incumbent Presidents are hard to beat. Only 4 of 17 incumbent Presidents in the 20th Century lost re-election
But Not Impossible
Big Turnarounds Happen in American Politics
• Nixon won in 1968 four years after Goldwater’s shellacking
• Clinton won in 1996 just two years after the Republican landslide in 1994
The Key to Turnaround
To win in 2004, Democrats need to recapture the vital center we held during most of the last decade:
• Win the battle of ideas
• Seize the mantle of reform
• Restore our sense of national purpose
The Optimistic View
Democrats Suffered Small Losses
• Two Senate Seats
• Six House Seats
• We gained three Statehouses
The Pessimistic View
Republicans Control Political Landscape
1992 2002
White House D R
U. S. Senate D R
U. S. House D R
Governorships D R
Legislatures D R
The Historical View
• 2002 Was the Latest Chapter in a Four Decade Swing to the Republicans That Began After Johnson’s 1964 Landslide.
The Senate68
64
5754
5660 61
58
46 46 47
55 55 56 57
4845 45
5048
3236
43 4442
38 3841
53 54 53
45 45 44 43
5255 55
50 51
20
30
40
50
60
70
64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 0 2
Democrats Republicans
The House
295
248 243255
242
291 292277
243
268253 258 260 267
258
204 206 211 212 205
140
187 192180
192
144 143158
192
167182 177
185167
176
230 228 223 221229
100
150
200
250
300
350
64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 0 2
Democrats Republicans
Governorships
33
25
20
2931
3637
32
27
34 34
2628
2930
1917 17
19
24
17
25
30
2119
1312
18
23
16 16
2422
1918
3032
3129
26
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 0 2
Democrats Republicans
State Legislators
66.7
58.757.1
60.8 59.7
68.1 67.7
63.660.4
62.9
58.460.4 60.4 60.2 58.9
52.1 52.6 52.7 51.849.7
33.2
41.3
49.2
39.1 40.1
31.8 32
36.239.5
37
41.539.5 39.6 39.7 40.7
47.7 47.1 47.1 48 50
20
30
40
50
60
70
64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 0 2
Democrats Republicans
52 52 54
4549 48 49
4651494949
52
45 44 46
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Democrat Republican
The Untold Story of 2002Republicans Gain in National Vote for House
52 52
54
45
4948
4645
44
46
52
49
51
49
4949
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Democrat Republican
National Vote for the House
An Important Bellwether
• In the Last Two Presidential Elections the National House Vote has Tracked the Presidential Vote.• The 1994 Election was “Truth in Packaging” Election – before 1994 Southern seats inflated Democratic strength.• In 1989, Democrats held two-thirds of House and Senate Seats in the South; today that is nearly reversed.
The Democratic Decline
Pres Hse Pres Hse Hse Chg
National 49-41 49-49 48-48 49-49 46-51 -5
Coasts 54-35 53-44 55-40 56-41 54-42 -3
South 46-46 45-54 43-55 42-54 41-56 -3
Heartland 47-42 48-49 47-50 46-51 44-54 -5
1996 2000 2002 00/02
Courtesy of Michael Barone
(Democrat/Republican)
The “Forgotten” Middle Class
Pre-Clinton Voting Patterns Reappear
• Like in the 1980s, Democrats lose among key among key middle class voters.
• Democrats win coalition of overeducated and undereducated.
• Democrats do well among base voters, falter in growing outer suburbs.
The Security GapPolicies Regarding Threat of Terrorism
64
2734
57
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Republicans Democrats
Tough Enough Not Tough Enough
“Mommy” and “Daddy” Parties
Voter Choice by Most Important Issues
58
3748 49 46 47
19
81
0
20
40
60
80
100
SocialSecurity
Economy Healthcare Terrorism
Democrat Republican Gallup Poll
Too Liberal Again
Perception of Political Views of Two Parties
10
51
3439
45
11
36
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Republicans Democrats Dems '88
Too Liberal About Right Too Conservative
Perception of Democrats
Should Democrats Pursue Policies
39
54
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
More Liberal More Moderate Don't Know
18
46
27
0
510
15
2025
30
35
4045
50
Working Class Middle Class Upper Mid Class
An Affluent ElectorateCharacteristics of 2000 Voters
42
32
6470
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
College Grad Some College Use Internet Own Stock
A Sophisticated Electorate
Characteristics of 2000 Voters
The New Electorate
PERIOD DOMINANT VOTERS
Industrial Era Working Class----------------------------------------------------Information Age Rising Learning Class-----------------------------------------------------
The New Democrat Approach
New Democrats are the modernizers of the Democratic Party
We further our party’s enduring values with new and innovative ideas
The Traditions We Honor
• Jefferson’s belief in individual libertyand the capacity for self government
• Jackson’s credo of equal opportunityfor all, special privileges for none
• Roosevelt’s thirst for innovation
• Kennedy’s call for national strengthand his summons to civic duty
• Clinton’s insistence upon new meansto achieve progressive ideals
Core Principles
TheNew Democrat
Philosophy
Opportunity & Growth Strong Abroad
Empowering Government
Mutual ResponsibilityTraditional Values
The Winning Coalition
Energize Our Base and Expand Our Appeal
The Democratic Base and Beyond Men and Women Multi-Racial and Multi-Ethnic Urban, Suburban and Exurban Moderates as well as Liberals Working Class and the “Forgotten” Middle Class
The Challenge Ahead
Cross the national and domestic defense threshold.
Avoid Reverting to pre-Clinton perceptions of party.
Close the Culture Gap.Bridge Racial Divisions Win critical independent and swing
voters.
What Democrats Must Do to Win
Meeting the Challenge
A Five Point Strategy
• Demonstrate a new sense of national purpose that talks to all Americans, not just narrow interests• Expand the base, don’t just energize it• Get the big things right• Offer bold innovative reforms, not incremental change• Look outside Washington for ideas that work
The 2004 Formula
• Put Security First• Stand Up for the Forgotten Middle
Class• Ask More of America and her
Leaders
A New Politics of Common Purpose
top related