Getting the Big Things Right Presentation by Al From Democratic Leadership Councils Congressional Staff Retreat March 7, 2003 How Democrats.

Getting the Big Things Right

Presentation by Al FromDemocratic Leadership Council’s

Congressional Staff Retreat March 7, 2003

www.ndol.org

How Democrats Can Come Back in 2004

Reality Therapy

• Democrats face an uphill, but not impossible, battle to win the White House in 2004.

•Difficult because incumbent Presidents are hard to beat. Only 4 of 17 incumbent Presidents in the 20th Century lost re-election

But Not Impossible

Big Turnarounds Happen in American Politics

• Nixon won in 1968 four years after Goldwater’s shellacking

• Clinton won in 1996 just two years after the Republican landslide in 1994

The Key to Turnaround

To win in 2004, Democrats need to recapture the vital center we held during most of the last decade:

• Win the battle of ideas

• Seize the mantle of reform

• Restore our sense of national purpose

The Optimistic View

Democrats Suffered Small Losses

• Two Senate Seats

• Six House Seats

• We gained three Statehouses

The Pessimistic View

Republicans Control Political Landscape

1992 2002

White House D R

U. S. Senate D R

U. S. House D R

Governorships D R

Legislatures D R

The Historical View

• 2002 Was the Latest Chapter in a Four Decade Swing to the Republicans That Began After Johnson’s 1964 Landslide.

The Senate68

64

5754

5660 61

58

46 46 47

55 55 56 57

4845 45

5048

3236

43 4442

38 3841

53 54 53

45 45 44 43

5255 55

50 51

20

30

40

50

60

70

64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 0 2

Democrats Republicans

The House

295

248 243255

242

291 292277

243

268253 258 260 267

258

204 206 211 212 205

140

187 192180

192

144 143158

192

167182 177

185167

176

230 228 223 221229

100

150

200

250

300

350

64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 0 2

Democrats Republicans

Governorships

33

25

20

2931

3637

32

27

34 34

2628

2930

1917 17

19

24

17

25

30

2119

1312

18

23

16 16

2422

1918

3032

3129

26

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 0 2

Democrats Republicans

State Legislators

66.7

58.757.1

60.8 59.7

68.1 67.7

63.660.4

62.9

58.460.4 60.4 60.2 58.9

52.1 52.6 52.7 51.849.7

33.2

41.3

49.2

39.1 40.1

31.8 32

36.239.5

37

41.539.5 39.6 39.7 40.7

47.7 47.1 47.1 48 50

20

30

40

50

60

70

64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 0 2

Democrats Republicans

52 52 54

4549 48 49

4651494949

52

45 44 46

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Democrat Republican

The Untold Story of 2002Republicans Gain in National Vote for House

52 52

54

45

4948

4645

44

46

52

49

51

49

4949

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Democrat Republican

National Vote for the House

An Important Bellwether

• In the Last Two Presidential Elections the National House Vote has Tracked the Presidential Vote.• The 1994 Election was “Truth in Packaging” Election – before 1994 Southern seats inflated Democratic strength.• In 1989, Democrats held two-thirds of House and Senate Seats in the South; today that is nearly reversed.

The Democratic Decline

Pres Hse Pres Hse Hse Chg

National 49-41 49-49 48-48 49-49 46-51 -5

Coasts 54-35 53-44 55-40 56-41 54-42 -3

South 46-46 45-54 43-55 42-54 41-56 -3

Heartland 47-42 48-49 47-50 46-51 44-54 -5

1996 2000 2002 00/02

Courtesy of Michael Barone

(Democrat/Republican)

The “Forgotten” Middle Class

Pre-Clinton Voting Patterns Reappear

• Like in the 1980s, Democrats lose among key among key middle class voters.

• Democrats win coalition of overeducated and undereducated.

• Democrats do well among base voters, falter in growing outer suburbs.

The Security GapPolicies Regarding Threat of Terrorism

64

2734

57

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Republicans Democrats

Tough Enough Not Tough Enough

“Mommy” and “Daddy” Parties

Voter Choice by Most Important Issues

58

3748 49 46 47

19

81

0

20

40

60

80

100

SocialSecurity

Economy Healthcare Terrorism

Democrat Republican Gallup Poll

Too Liberal Again

Perception of Political Views of Two Parties

10

51

3439

45

11

36

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Republicans Democrats Dems '88

Too Liberal About Right Too Conservative

Perception of Democrats

Should Democrats Pursue Policies

39

54

7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

More Liberal More Moderate Don't Know

18

46

27

0

510

15

2025

30

35

4045

50

Working Class Middle Class Upper Mid Class

An Affluent ElectorateCharacteristics of 2000 Voters

42

32

6470

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

College Grad Some College Use Internet Own Stock

A Sophisticated Electorate

Characteristics of 2000 Voters

The New Electorate

PERIOD DOMINANT VOTERS

Industrial Era Working Class----------------------------------------------------Information Age Rising Learning Class-----------------------------------------------------

The New Democrat Approach

New Democrats are the modernizers of the Democratic Party

We further our party’s enduring values with new and innovative ideas

The Traditions We Honor

• Jefferson’s belief in individual libertyand the capacity for self government

• Jackson’s credo of equal opportunityfor all, special privileges for none

• Roosevelt’s thirst for innovation

• Kennedy’s call for national strengthand his summons to civic duty

• Clinton’s insistence upon new meansto achieve progressive ideals

Core Principles

TheNew Democrat

Philosophy

Opportunity & Growth Strong Abroad

Empowering Government

Mutual ResponsibilityTraditional Values

The Winning Coalition

Energize Our Base and Expand Our Appeal

The Democratic Base and Beyond Men and Women Multi-Racial and Multi-Ethnic Urban, Suburban and Exurban Moderates as well as Liberals Working Class and the “Forgotten” Middle Class

The Challenge Ahead

Cross the national and domestic defense threshold.

Avoid Reverting to pre-Clinton perceptions of party.

Close the Culture Gap.Bridge Racial Divisions Win critical independent and swing

voters.

What Democrats Must Do to Win

Meeting the Challenge

A Five Point Strategy

• Demonstrate a new sense of national purpose that talks to all Americans, not just narrow interests• Expand the base, don’t just energize it• Get the big things right• Offer bold innovative reforms, not incremental change• Look outside Washington for ideas that work

The 2004 Formula

• Put Security First• Stand Up for the Forgotten Middle

Class• Ask More of America and her

Leaders

A New Politics of Common Purpose