Future trends in technology - AHDB Beef & Lambbeefandlamb.ahdb.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/... · 2017-11-15 · 4th Industrial Revolution ‘…happening 10 times faster and

David SmithChief Executive

Global Futures and Foresight

Copyright © 2017 Global Futures and Foresight Limited

Future trends in technology

4th Industrial Revolution‘…happening 10 times faster and at 300 times the scale, or roughly 3,000 times the impact,’ of the Industrial Revolution.

McKinsey

http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21700761-after-many-false-starts-artificial-intelligence-has-taken-will-it-cause-masshttp://www.businessinsider.com/former-cisco-ceo-500-billion-connected-devices-by-2025-2015-11

Automation

A new economy

Digital tech – including automation- could render 40% of companies in the world today irrelevant in 10 years.

http://www.businessinsider.com/former-cisco-ceo-500-billion-connected-devices-by-2025-2015-11

http://chrisriddell.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/RC_BusinessDisruption.jpg

Data Processing"I have travelled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year."

The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957.

... and the telephone“The 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.”

Western Union internal memo, 1876.

Over 1.5 billion telephone linesOver 7 billion mobiles

…and still on telephones

http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertszczerba/2015/01/05/15-worst-tech-predictions-of-all-time/

2006: “Everyone’s always asking me when Apple will come out with a cell phone. My answer is, ‘Probably never.’”

David Pogue, The New York Times.2007: “There’s no chance that the

iPhone is going to get any significant market share.”

Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO.

1 billion sold since 2007

91%%’age of entire smartphone industry profits that go to Apple

Innovation

48 Years

1810 1858Ezra Warner of Waterbury, Connecticut patented the first can opener

1. Globalisation2. Technology3. Demographics & people4. Energy and Transport5. Changes in work 6. Consumption7. Environment

Mega trends

http://csr-news.net/main/2008/08/04/megatrends-and-the-future-of-corporate-social-responsibility/

www.watchblog.com Source: Population Research Bureau www.prb.org

Global population growth

33% live in Muslim countries by 2050 Pew Research

“The size of the world economy will tripleover the next four decades as emerging-market economies wield increasing power”

“World GDP to double within two decades”

Global middle class• In 5 years 400m

people to enter the middle class

• 2/3 of 4.9bn middle class in Asia-Pacific.

http://hotelmarketing.com/index.php/content/article/10_things_you_need_to_know_about_the_future_of_tourismbit.ly/2ovAzvw

http://s213.photobucket.com/user/bujin_photos/media/_MG_8043.jpg.html

70% of global middle class to live in EM’s by 2020.

Ageing populations

Percentage of Global population over 60

700m

2.0bn

And we’re living longer lives

Human life expectancies have the potential to reach 500, or possibly even 1000.

“In the near future, the next two to four decades, the disease of ageing will be cured.”

Dr. Aubrey de Grey B.A., M.A. and Ph.D., University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. Born 20th April 1963

Robert A. Freitas Jr. is Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Molecular Manufacturing

What is at stake

True costs of non-communicable diseases to 2030 to be 5x greater than the 2008 global financial crisis. Bain

http://www.bain.com/about/press/press-releases/future-of-healthy-2016-press-release.aspx

http://www.organicauthority.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/fatman-ccflcr-tobyotter.jpg

PosthumanismHuman augmentation

CUSTOMERS ARE CHANGING

Wellcare• Global wellcare

market $674bn.• Double digits

growth rates for many categories. PwC

https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/reports/rise-of-wellcare

https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/media/image/teaser_The-rise-of-wellcare.jpg

Health arena• 28% in UK reduced or

limited their meat consumption over 6m. Aug 2017.

• 14% may further lower it.• 19% under 25 eat no meat.

http://images.medicaldaily.com/sites/medicaldaily.com/files/styles/headline/public/2015/02/17/meat-eaters-versus-vegetarians.jpg

Global meat consumption• 388m tons in 2030.

– 1.44 times 2011.

• 460m tons in 2050.– 1.71 times 2011.

https://www.mitsui.com/mgssi/en/report/detail/1221523_10744.html

Personalised nutrition• Personalised nutrition -

tailored diets based on – Data & genetic information.– Lifestyle and physiological

state using real-time sensors.

• The future of food?https://i2.wp.com/www.zeefithealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Personalised-Nutrition-Zeefit-Health.jpg?resize=705%2C416&ssl=1

Tech influence• Nanotechnology could

increase nutrients• Specific compounds

linked to benefits.• Getting those compounds

into a bioavailable format is becoming important.

http://www.digitalistmag.com/digital-supply-networks/2017/01/12/tech-changing-future-of-food-04836861

https://cdn-a.william-reed.com/var/wrbm_gb_food_pharma/storage/images/9/7/2/7/1497279-1-eng-GB/Special-delivery-Nano-s-nutrient-gift-presents-huge-potential.jpg

Online shopping• By 2020, e-

commerce could be 14.6% of global retail sales.

• 8.7% in 2016

http://www.businessinsider.com/how-amazon-spark-social-network-works-2017-7

https://media.licdn.com/mpr/mpr/AAEAAQAAAAAAAAKrAAAAJDQ3ZjAyNWFiLWVkZGYtNDVlMy04ZjVlLTdiNWFlYjhhNjRkNg.jpg

Online shopping• eBay to make visual

search the future of online shopping.

http://www.businessinsider.com/ebay-is-looking-to-make-visual-search-the-future-of-shopping-2017-7

http://www.marketwire.com/library/20150105-986396_sm.jpg

Standardize and personalise paradox• There is a need to

standardizeprocesses whilst personalizingservices/products.

http://www.cognizant.com/business-consulting/Site%20Documents/HBR%20WP-Reinvention_Business_exec%20summary%20June%202012.pdfhttp://gigaom.com/collaboration/the-future-of-work-10-ways-that-the-world-of-work-will-change-in-the-2010s/

http://static.hbr.org/hbrg-main/resources/images/site-programming/homepage/spotlight/121209-content-package-reinvention.jpg

The mobile customer in context• Where am I?• What do I want?• Who’s around me?• Where am I going?• What would help me?

– Where– What– Who

Consumers more disruptive than businesses

• Consumers’ are constantly faster at adapting than organisations.

https://www.digitalpulse.pwc.com.au/eight-trends-driving-digital-innovation-consumers-savvy-organisations/

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=disruptive+consumers&espv=2&biw=1440&bih=775&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0CAcQ_AUoAmoVChMI0bvB0bSzyAIVSFsUCh3WmgIp#tbm=isch&q=consumers+technology&imgrc=4ogzWkRcNiyioM%3A

50% of customers say they constantly change how they deal/interact

Change is coming

TECHNOLOGY & COMMUNICATIONS

Technological impact• By 2020 47% of revenue influenced by digital Forrester

• 87% believe digital tech will disrupt their industry.

Only 44% feel prepared. MIT Sloan

Social networks

http://www.newmediatrendwatch.com/world-overview/137-social-networking-and-ugcMcKinsey Global Institute pdf, July 2012, ‘The Social Economy: Unlocking value and productivity through social technologies.’

92% of consumers globally trust recommendations from friends and family above all other forms of advertising.

http://www.brandingstrategyinsider.com/2016/01/lies-and-the-declining-trust-in-brands.html#.VuloreIrLIU

By 2027 most work based in project teams

Distributed social videoBy 2019• 85% of traffic

via video.• 50% of

commerce via mobile.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/steveolenski/2017/05/15/with-mikmak-latest-move-brands-can-expedite-path-to-purchase-instagram-snapchat/#44611fa445ee

Social VR• 75% to use

social VR apps at least once a week.

• Fusing online and physical.

https://www.fastcompany.com/40421014/survey-two-thirds-of-people-want-vr-to-be-social

http://img.sxsw.com/2015/spg_images/IAP43701.pnghttps://vrscout.com/news/facebook-oculus-avatars-social-vr/

A.I. interfaces replace

smartphones by 2020

Semantic searchnatural queries, past behaviour and multiple data points.

... and Smart Agents and Virtual Personal Assistants handle 40% of mobile interactions

Heralds the end of the Apps economy…

Conversational commerceBy 2021• 7.5bn virtual assistants.• Could bots be the future

commerce platform?– Conversational

commerce?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelarthur/2017/07/19/conversational-commerce-ebay-ai-chatbot/#464040d81efbhttps://betanews.com/2017/05/19/digital-assistants-outnumber-people/

http://68.media.tumblr.com/2cbe391b009d24c729bc800688ac42c0/tumblr_inline_o5ubq0y4Hv1roucwv_500.png

AI Will Power 95% Of Customer Interactions by 2025. Servion

Ambient tech• By 2025

– The global wearable market to reach $22.3bn.

• By 2028 – 1 bn AR and VR.– Smart clothing.

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170227005663/en/Enterprise-Wearable-Market-Reach-22-Billion-2025http://www.networkworld.com/article/3181889/consumer-electronics/how-ar-and-vr-can-reach-a-billion-users-before-2028.html

By 2020, developed world life expectancy will increase by 6 months, due to wireless health monitoring.

Gartner

Mobility in everything• By 2020 40% of

wearables are forecast to have evolved into a viable alternative to smartphones.

https://wtvox.com/2015/06/consumers-expect-wearables-to-provide-full-healthit/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

https://www.bbvaopenmind.com/en/internet-of-things-opportunities-and-challenges/

Next phase of mobile• AR and VR could

form a $150bn market, disrupting mobile by 2020.

• 1.3bn mobile AR apps by 2019.

http://techcrunch.com/2015/04/06/augmented-and-virtual-reality-to-hit-150-billion-by-2020/http://www.wareable.com/ar/13-billion-mobile-ar-apps-in-use-by-2019-1015

http://www.overdigital.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/augmented_reality2.png

Engaged through technologyBy 2019

• 3D virtual reality displays,

• Embedded in glasses & contact lenses.

• Primary interfaces to connect with other people, computers, the Web and virtual reality. Kurzweil

• Linking our senses with other people’s senses or machines.

“When you put on the goggles, it’s different from anything I have ever experienced in my life,”

Mark Zuckerberg

Internet of everythingBy 2020• One trillion sensors embedded in humans and machines.• We will each own 50 internet connected devices.

http://www.industrytap.com/the-hybird-age/3651

IoNInternet of Nanoswarms

• Tests performed by nano devices in the body.

• Buildings self repair.

• Airplanes sense structural issues and mitigate them.

• Google searches performed in the physical environment.

https://physicsofthefuture.wikispaces.com/file/view/Medical-Nanotechnology.jpg/497103650/Medical-Nanotechnology.jpg

http://readwrite.com/2016/09/19/iot-nanoswarms-coming-soon-dl4/

Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles

Auto shared vehicle potential impacts• 90% fewer traffic accidents.• 85% fewer cars.(PWC)

• 25% lower motor risk (BCG)

• End game:– End of personal car insurance.– End of car parks.– Narrower roads.– No more taxi drivers.– Fewer repair centers/garages.– End of home driveways and garages.

Transport options of the future• It could be 10 times

cheaper to take electric robo-taxis than to own a car by 2030.

http://bit.ly/2rB2Th9

https://media.treehugger.com/assets/images/2011/10/robo_taxi_passengers.jpg

Synthetic food• Control of molecular

construct of our food -positive impacts on food chain.

• Any food we want is available at a moment’s notice at the touch of a button is plausible.

https://medium.com/foodofthefuture/the-future-of-food-is-synthetic-fdb101ee9f43#.q8ztkb71b

http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/57cf0c1809d29323008b635d-1190/screen%20shot%202016-09-06%20at%202.33.40%20pm.png

Artificial meat• Since 2013, price of lab-

grown meat dropped from $325,000 for five ounces to just $11.36.

• Making it 30,000 times cheaper than it was.

https://www.inverse.com/article/26464-cultured-meat-burger-price

http://www.nrn.com/sites/nrn.com/files/styles/article_featured_standard/public/cultured-beef_Maastricht_University-promo_11.png?itok=5OCKz2y8

Artificial meat• Meat without slaughtering

animals. Memphis Meats

• VC fund investing in meatless meat. Tyson Foods

• To serve the first lab-made burger in 5 years.Mosa Meat

https://futurism.com/were-5-years-away-from-lab-grown-meat-hitting-store-shelves/

https://edge.alluremedia.com.au/m/g/2017/08/lab-meat.jpg

3D PrintingThe next trillion $ industry

• Airbus - 3D printed planes by 2050. • First “printed homes” built. • Commercial buildings will follow.• Transform manufacturing, insurance, pharmacy

distribution, logistics, retailing, food, surgery …

Source: Futurist Speaker, http://www.futuristspeaker.com/2012/05/transforming-the-future-of-the-insurance-industry/?goback=%2Egde_145854_member_118622940

3D Food

• Thin layers of fine-grain sugar. ChefJet

• Italian food company uses a 3D printer for pasta

http://blog.grabcad.com/blog/2017/08/02/appetizing-not-3d-printed-food-industry-growing/

http://www.3ders.org/images2015/3DSystems-opens-3DS-culinary-lab-education-innovation-3d-printed-food6.jpg

3D Food• Combining food

creation and engineering means we start printing out food at home.

http://medicalfuturist.com/the-future-of-food-the-food-of-the-future/

http://medicalfuturist.com/the-future-of-food-the-food-of-the-future/

3D Meat• 3D-food printers

soon as common in our restaurants as coffee machines and microwaves. Meat and Livestock Australia

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/3dprinted-meat-makes-the-cut/news-story/4b8a3f98b22103f8310d4a58c5ce4adf

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/3dprinted-meat-makes-the-cut/news-story/4b8a3f98b22103f8310d4a58c5ce4adf

3D Food• At a UK restaurant,

Absolutely everything on show is 3D printed.– The food.– The utensils.– The furniture.

At Food Ink

http://blog.grabcad.com/blog/2017/08/02/appetizing-not-3d-printed-food-industry-growing/

http://foodink.io/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/DSC04956-copy-1-1024x683.jpg

3D printed merchandise• 3D printers:

– Lowe’s uses technology to offer items no longer produced.

• Eg: door knobs and fixtures,

https://www.constellationr.com/content/nrf16-store-strikes-back

http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-ID899_LOWES3_E_20150429135714.jpg

3D printing

Prints building layer by layer http://www.constructiondive.com/news/8-coolest-construction-technology-innovations-of-2015/410375/

Staff, customers, investors

Acroid 1 Shakira 2 Clooney 1

Quantum computing implications• Quantum

cryptographic protocols are difficult to break.

– Protecting privacy.

• Our best cryptography today will be broken.

https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-future-implications-of-quantum-computers-for-society-technology-security-and-life-in-general

https://www.extremetech.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/crypto-head-640x353.jpg

Brain-Computer Interfaces• By 2030, '... there

won’t be language as we know it today, it will be the language of the brain.

http://www.itpro.co.uk/strategy/24908/zuckerberg-says-telepathy-is-the-future-of-communicationhttps://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/could-you-soon-fly-an-airplane-with-your-mind

http://www.crystalinks.com/telepathy500a.jpg

Telepathy is the future of communication.Zuckerberg

http://bit.ly/2cHxSyGhttp://bit.ly/29xICkY

Knowledge Work Automation

WORK andAUTOMATION

AutomationManual Clerical Managerial Professional

• 46% of the activities EU workers are paid to do could be automated. McKinsey

90% of the jobs we are familiar with today will be replaced by smart machines come 2030.

http://www.livemint.com/Companies/K2zR0LAIi7HrKCHcvG9g8N/Automation-in-Csuite-closer-than-you-think.htmlhttps://www.euractiv.com/section/future-eu/opinion/whats-in-store-for-the-eu-hint-it-might-not-be-what-you-think/

Elbert Hubbard:

“One machine can do the work of fifty ordinary men,

no machine can do the work of one

extraordinary man”

• Rapid growth in:

– Information communications technology.

– Business and financial services.

– Care of the elderly and young people.

– Hospitality and retailing.

– Advanced manufacturing and biotechnology.

The UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES)

New Jobs

New Jobs• Body Part Maker • Nano-Medic • Pharmer of Genetically Engineered

Crops & Livestock • Old Age Wellness Manager /

Consultant Specialists • Memory Augmentation Surgeon • New Science‘ Ethicist

New Jobs• Vertical Farmers • Climate Change Reversal

Specialist • Quarantine Enforcer• Weather Modification Police

New Jobs• Virtual Lawyer • Avatar Manager• Virtual Teachers • Alternative Vehicle Developers • Narrowcasters • Waste Data Handler • Time Broker / Time Bank Trader • Social 'Networking' Worker

The difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in

escaping from old ones.

John Maynard Keynes

If you want to get ahead – you need to look ahead

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