David Smith Chief Executive Global Futures and Foresight Copyright © 2017 Global Futures and Foresight Limited Future trends in technology
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
David SmithChief Executive
Global Futures and Foresight
Copyright © 2017 Global Futures and Foresight Limited
Future trends in technology
4th Industrial Revolution‘…happening 10 times faster and at 300 times the scale, or roughly 3,000 times the impact,’ of the Industrial Revolution.
McKinsey
http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21700761-after-many-false-starts-artificial-intelligence-has-taken-will-it-cause-masshttp://www.businessinsider.com/former-cisco-ceo-500-billion-connected-devices-by-2025-2015-11
Automation
A new economy
Digital tech – including automation- could render 40% of companies in the world today irrelevant in 10 years.
http://www.businessinsider.com/former-cisco-ceo-500-billion-connected-devices-by-2025-2015-11
http://chrisriddell.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/RC_BusinessDisruption.jpg
Data Processing"I have travelled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year."
The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957.
... and the telephone“The 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.”
Western Union internal memo, 1876.
Over 1.5 billion telephone linesOver 7 billion mobiles
…and still on telephones
http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertszczerba/2015/01/05/15-worst-tech-predictions-of-all-time/
2006: “Everyone’s always asking me when Apple will come out with a cell phone. My answer is, ‘Probably never.’”
David Pogue, The New York Times.2007: “There’s no chance that the
iPhone is going to get any significant market share.”
Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO.
1 billion sold since 2007
91%%’age of entire smartphone industry profits that go to Apple
Innovation
48 Years
1810 1858Ezra Warner of Waterbury, Connecticut patented the first can opener
1. Globalisation2. Technology3. Demographics & people4. Energy and Transport5. Changes in work 6. Consumption7. Environment
Mega trends
http://csr-news.net/main/2008/08/04/megatrends-and-the-future-of-corporate-social-responsibility/
www.watchblog.com Source: Population Research Bureau www.prb.org
Global population growth
33% live in Muslim countries by 2050 Pew Research
“The size of the world economy will tripleover the next four decades as emerging-market economies wield increasing power”
“World GDP to double within two decades”
Global middle class• In 5 years 400m
people to enter the middle class
• 2/3 of 4.9bn middle class in Asia-Pacific.
http://hotelmarketing.com/index.php/content/article/10_things_you_need_to_know_about_the_future_of_tourismbit.ly/2ovAzvw
http://s213.photobucket.com/user/bujin_photos/media/_MG_8043.jpg.html
70% of global middle class to live in EM’s by 2020.
Ageing populations
Percentage of Global population over 60
700m
2.0bn
And we’re living longer lives
Human life expectancies have the potential to reach 500, or possibly even 1000.
“In the near future, the next two to four decades, the disease of ageing will be cured.”
Dr. Aubrey de Grey B.A., M.A. and Ph.D., University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. Born 20th April 1963
Robert A. Freitas Jr. is Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Molecular Manufacturing
What is at stake
True costs of non-communicable diseases to 2030 to be 5x greater than the 2008 global financial crisis. Bain
http://www.bain.com/about/press/press-releases/future-of-healthy-2016-press-release.aspx
http://www.organicauthority.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/fatman-ccflcr-tobyotter.jpg
PosthumanismHuman augmentation
CUSTOMERS ARE CHANGING
Wellcare• Global wellcare
market $674bn.• Double digits
growth rates for many categories. PwC
https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/reports/rise-of-wellcare
https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/media/image/teaser_The-rise-of-wellcare.jpg
Health arena• 28% in UK reduced or
limited their meat consumption over 6m. Aug 2017.
• 14% may further lower it.• 19% under 25 eat no meat.
http://images.medicaldaily.com/sites/medicaldaily.com/files/styles/headline/public/2015/02/17/meat-eaters-versus-vegetarians.jpg
Global meat consumption• 388m tons in 2030.
– 1.44 times 2011.
• 460m tons in 2050.– 1.71 times 2011.
https://www.mitsui.com/mgssi/en/report/detail/1221523_10744.html
Personalised nutrition• Personalised nutrition -
tailored diets based on – Data & genetic information.– Lifestyle and physiological
state using real-time sensors.
• The future of food?https://i2.wp.com/www.zeefithealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Personalised-Nutrition-Zeefit-Health.jpg?resize=705%2C416&ssl=1
Tech influence• Nanotechnology could
increase nutrients• Specific compounds
linked to benefits.• Getting those compounds
into a bioavailable format is becoming important.
http://www.digitalistmag.com/digital-supply-networks/2017/01/12/tech-changing-future-of-food-04836861
https://cdn-a.william-reed.com/var/wrbm_gb_food_pharma/storage/images/9/7/2/7/1497279-1-eng-GB/Special-delivery-Nano-s-nutrient-gift-presents-huge-potential.jpg
Online shopping• By 2020, e-
commerce could be 14.6% of global retail sales.
• 8.7% in 2016
http://www.businessinsider.com/how-amazon-spark-social-network-works-2017-7
https://media.licdn.com/mpr/mpr/AAEAAQAAAAAAAAKrAAAAJDQ3ZjAyNWFiLWVkZGYtNDVlMy04ZjVlLTdiNWFlYjhhNjRkNg.jpg
Online shopping• eBay to make visual
search the future of online shopping.
http://www.businessinsider.com/ebay-is-looking-to-make-visual-search-the-future-of-shopping-2017-7
http://www.marketwire.com/library/20150105-986396_sm.jpg
Standardize and personalise paradox• There is a need to
standardizeprocesses whilst personalizingservices/products.
http://www.cognizant.com/business-consulting/Site%20Documents/HBR%20WP-Reinvention_Business_exec%20summary%20June%202012.pdfhttp://gigaom.com/collaboration/the-future-of-work-10-ways-that-the-world-of-work-will-change-in-the-2010s/
http://static.hbr.org/hbrg-main/resources/images/site-programming/homepage/spotlight/121209-content-package-reinvention.jpg
The mobile customer in context• Where am I?• What do I want?• Who’s around me?• Where am I going?• What would help me?
– Where– What– Who
Consumers more disruptive than businesses
• Consumers’ are constantly faster at adapting than organisations.
https://www.digitalpulse.pwc.com.au/eight-trends-driving-digital-innovation-consumers-savvy-organisations/
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=disruptive+consumers&espv=2&biw=1440&bih=775&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0CAcQ_AUoAmoVChMI0bvB0bSzyAIVSFsUCh3WmgIp#tbm=isch&q=consumers+technology&imgrc=4ogzWkRcNiyioM%3A
50% of customers say they constantly change how they deal/interact
Change is coming
TECHNOLOGY & COMMUNICATIONS
Technological impact• By 2020 47% of revenue influenced by digital Forrester
• 87% believe digital tech will disrupt their industry.
Only 44% feel prepared. MIT Sloan
Social networks
http://www.newmediatrendwatch.com/world-overview/137-social-networking-and-ugcMcKinsey Global Institute pdf, July 2012, ‘The Social Economy: Unlocking value and productivity through social technologies.’
92% of consumers globally trust recommendations from friends and family above all other forms of advertising.
http://www.brandingstrategyinsider.com/2016/01/lies-and-the-declining-trust-in-brands.html#.VuloreIrLIU
By 2027 most work based in project teams
Distributed social videoBy 2019• 85% of traffic
via video.• 50% of
commerce via mobile.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/steveolenski/2017/05/15/with-mikmak-latest-move-brands-can-expedite-path-to-purchase-instagram-snapchat/#44611fa445ee
Social VR• 75% to use
social VR apps at least once a week.
• Fusing online and physical.
https://www.fastcompany.com/40421014/survey-two-thirds-of-people-want-vr-to-be-social
http://img.sxsw.com/2015/spg_images/IAP43701.pnghttps://vrscout.com/news/facebook-oculus-avatars-social-vr/
A.I. interfaces replace
smartphones by 2020
Semantic searchnatural queries, past behaviour and multiple data points.
... and Smart Agents and Virtual Personal Assistants handle 40% of mobile interactions
Heralds the end of the Apps economy…
Conversational commerceBy 2021• 7.5bn virtual assistants.• Could bots be the future
commerce platform?– Conversational
commerce?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelarthur/2017/07/19/conversational-commerce-ebay-ai-chatbot/#464040d81efbhttps://betanews.com/2017/05/19/digital-assistants-outnumber-people/
http://68.media.tumblr.com/2cbe391b009d24c729bc800688ac42c0/tumblr_inline_o5ubq0y4Hv1roucwv_500.png
AI Will Power 95% Of Customer Interactions by 2025. Servion
Ambient tech• By 2025
– The global wearable market to reach $22.3bn.
• By 2028 – 1 bn AR and VR.– Smart clothing.
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170227005663/en/Enterprise-Wearable-Market-Reach-22-Billion-2025http://www.networkworld.com/article/3181889/consumer-electronics/how-ar-and-vr-can-reach-a-billion-users-before-2028.html
By 2020, developed world life expectancy will increase by 6 months, due to wireless health monitoring.
Gartner
Mobility in everything• By 2020 40% of
wearables are forecast to have evolved into a viable alternative to smartphones.
https://wtvox.com/2015/06/consumers-expect-wearables-to-provide-full-healthit/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
https://www.bbvaopenmind.com/en/internet-of-things-opportunities-and-challenges/
Next phase of mobile• AR and VR could
form a $150bn market, disrupting mobile by 2020.
• 1.3bn mobile AR apps by 2019.
http://techcrunch.com/2015/04/06/augmented-and-virtual-reality-to-hit-150-billion-by-2020/http://www.wareable.com/ar/13-billion-mobile-ar-apps-in-use-by-2019-1015
http://www.overdigital.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/augmented_reality2.png
Engaged through technologyBy 2019
• 3D virtual reality displays,
• Embedded in glasses & contact lenses.
• Primary interfaces to connect with other people, computers, the Web and virtual reality. Kurzweil
• Linking our senses with other people’s senses or machines.
“When you put on the goggles, it’s different from anything I have ever experienced in my life,”
Mark Zuckerberg
Internet of everythingBy 2020• One trillion sensors embedded in humans and machines.• We will each own 50 internet connected devices.
http://www.industrytap.com/the-hybird-age/3651
IoNInternet of Nanoswarms
• Tests performed by nano devices in the body.
• Buildings self repair.
• Airplanes sense structural issues and mitigate them.
• Google searches performed in the physical environment.
https://physicsofthefuture.wikispaces.com/file/view/Medical-Nanotechnology.jpg/497103650/Medical-Nanotechnology.jpg
http://readwrite.com/2016/09/19/iot-nanoswarms-coming-soon-dl4/
Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles
Auto shared vehicle potential impacts• 90% fewer traffic accidents.• 85% fewer cars.(PWC)
• 25% lower motor risk (BCG)
• End game:– End of personal car insurance.– End of car parks.– Narrower roads.– No more taxi drivers.– Fewer repair centers/garages.– End of home driveways and garages.
Transport options of the future• It could be 10 times
cheaper to take electric robo-taxis than to own a car by 2030.
http://bit.ly/2rB2Th9
https://media.treehugger.com/assets/images/2011/10/robo_taxi_passengers.jpg
Synthetic food• Control of molecular
construct of our food -positive impacts on food chain.
• Any food we want is available at a moment’s notice at the touch of a button is plausible.
https://medium.com/foodofthefuture/the-future-of-food-is-synthetic-fdb101ee9f43#.q8ztkb71b
http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/57cf0c1809d29323008b635d-1190/screen%20shot%202016-09-06%20at%202.33.40%20pm.png
Artificial meat• Since 2013, price of lab-
grown meat dropped from $325,000 for five ounces to just $11.36.
• Making it 30,000 times cheaper than it was.
https://www.inverse.com/article/26464-cultured-meat-burger-price
http://www.nrn.com/sites/nrn.com/files/styles/article_featured_standard/public/cultured-beef_Maastricht_University-promo_11.png?itok=5OCKz2y8
Artificial meat• Meat without slaughtering
animals. Memphis Meats
• VC fund investing in meatless meat. Tyson Foods
• To serve the first lab-made burger in 5 years.Mosa Meat
https://futurism.com/were-5-years-away-from-lab-grown-meat-hitting-store-shelves/
https://edge.alluremedia.com.au/m/g/2017/08/lab-meat.jpg
3D PrintingThe next trillion $ industry
• Airbus - 3D printed planes by 2050. • First “printed homes” built. • Commercial buildings will follow.• Transform manufacturing, insurance, pharmacy
distribution, logistics, retailing, food, surgery …
Source: Futurist Speaker, http://www.futuristspeaker.com/2012/05/transforming-the-future-of-the-insurance-industry/?goback=%2Egde_145854_member_118622940
3D Food
• Thin layers of fine-grain sugar. ChefJet
• Italian food company uses a 3D printer for pasta
http://blog.grabcad.com/blog/2017/08/02/appetizing-not-3d-printed-food-industry-growing/
http://www.3ders.org/images2015/3DSystems-opens-3DS-culinary-lab-education-innovation-3d-printed-food6.jpg
3D Food• Combining food
creation and engineering means we start printing out food at home.
http://medicalfuturist.com/the-future-of-food-the-food-of-the-future/
http://medicalfuturist.com/the-future-of-food-the-food-of-the-future/
3D Meat• 3D-food printers
soon as common in our restaurants as coffee machines and microwaves. Meat and Livestock Australia
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/3dprinted-meat-makes-the-cut/news-story/4b8a3f98b22103f8310d4a58c5ce4adf
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/3dprinted-meat-makes-the-cut/news-story/4b8a3f98b22103f8310d4a58c5ce4adf
3D Food• At a UK restaurant,
Absolutely everything on show is 3D printed.– The food.– The utensils.– The furniture.
At Food Ink
http://blog.grabcad.com/blog/2017/08/02/appetizing-not-3d-printed-food-industry-growing/
http://foodink.io/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/DSC04956-copy-1-1024x683.jpg
3D printed merchandise• 3D printers:
– Lowe’s uses technology to offer items no longer produced.
• Eg: door knobs and fixtures,
https://www.constellationr.com/content/nrf16-store-strikes-back
http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-ID899_LOWES3_E_20150429135714.jpg
3D printing
Prints building layer by layer http://www.constructiondive.com/news/8-coolest-construction-technology-innovations-of-2015/410375/
Staff, customers, investors
Acroid 1 Shakira 2 Clooney 1
Quantum computing implications• Quantum
cryptographic protocols are difficult to break.
– Protecting privacy.
• Our best cryptography today will be broken.
https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-future-implications-of-quantum-computers-for-society-technology-security-and-life-in-general
https://www.extremetech.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/crypto-head-640x353.jpg
Brain-Computer Interfaces• By 2030, '... there
won’t be language as we know it today, it will be the language of the brain.
http://www.itpro.co.uk/strategy/24908/zuckerberg-says-telepathy-is-the-future-of-communicationhttps://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/could-you-soon-fly-an-airplane-with-your-mind
http://www.crystalinks.com/telepathy500a.jpg
Telepathy is the future of communication.Zuckerberg
http://bit.ly/2cHxSyGhttp://bit.ly/29xICkY
Knowledge Work Automation
WORK andAUTOMATION
AutomationManual Clerical Managerial Professional
• 46% of the activities EU workers are paid to do could be automated. McKinsey
90% of the jobs we are familiar with today will be replaced by smart machines come 2030.
http://www.livemint.com/Companies/K2zR0LAIi7HrKCHcvG9g8N/Automation-in-Csuite-closer-than-you-think.htmlhttps://www.euractiv.com/section/future-eu/opinion/whats-in-store-for-the-eu-hint-it-might-not-be-what-you-think/
Elbert Hubbard:
“One machine can do the work of fifty ordinary men,
no machine can do the work of one
extraordinary man”
• Rapid growth in:
– Information communications technology.
– Business and financial services.
– Care of the elderly and young people.
– Hospitality and retailing.
– Advanced manufacturing and biotechnology.
The UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES)
New Jobs
New Jobs• Body Part Maker • Nano-Medic • Pharmer of Genetically Engineered
Crops & Livestock • Old Age Wellness Manager /
Consultant Specialists • Memory Augmentation Surgeon • New Science‘ Ethicist
New Jobs• Vertical Farmers • Climate Change Reversal
Specialist • Quarantine Enforcer• Weather Modification Police
New Jobs• Virtual Lawyer • Avatar Manager• Virtual Teachers • Alternative Vehicle Developers • Narrowcasters • Waste Data Handler • Time Broker / Time Bank Trader • Social 'Networking' Worker
The difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in
escaping from old ones.
John Maynard Keynes
If you want to get ahead – you need to look ahead
+44 7932 408901
Imagine itThank you
www.linkedin.com/in/dasmithwww.thegff.com
davidsmithgffgfftv
http://elm.neworldiq.comAvailable at www.thegff.com
Related Documents
