Financial markets. Selection of interest rates in the US money market per cent Chart 1:1 Source: Reuters EcoWin.

Financial markets

Selection of interest rates in the

US money marketper cent

Chart 1:1 Source: Reuters EcoWin

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Policy rate O/N-rate 3 month interbank rate 3 month treasury bill

Difference between interbank rate and expected policy rate

Basis points

Note. In Sweden the spread is represented by the difference between 3 month Stibor and overnight index swap (STINA) rate

Chart 1.2 Source: Bloomberg

Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09

Sweden Euro area USA UK

euro area money marketper cent

Chart 1.3 Source: Reuters Ecowin

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Policy rate O/N-rate 3 month interbank rate 3 month treasury bill rate

Swedish money marketper cent

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Policy rate T/N-rate 3 month interbank rate 3 month treasury bill rate

10 year government bond yield

per cent

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Sweden Euro area USA

Total issued on the Swedish corporate bond market

SEK Million

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4

Credit spreads for corporate bonds in the US and the euro

areabasis points

Chart 1.7 Source: Reuters EcoWin

Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09

AAA - Euro area BBB - Euro area Aaa - USA Baa - USA

Note. The spread between yield on corporate bond and the yield on corresponding goverenment bond

Credit spread for high-yield corporate bonds in the US and

the euro areabasis points

Chart 1.8 Source: Reuters EcoWin

Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

USA Euro area

Global default ratePer cent

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2- and 5-year mortgage bond spread

the difference between mortgage bond yield and government bond yield, basis points

2 year mortgage bond spread 5 year mortgage bond spread

Premiums in CDS indexbasis points

Chart 1.11 Source: Reuters Ecowin & Bloomberg

Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09

North America - CDX Europe - iTraxx

Premiums in CDS for a selection of banks basis points

Deutsche Bank SEB Merrill Lynch

Citibank Morgan Stanley UBS

Premia in the CDS-index for emerging markets

basis points

Stock market development

Index, January 2007=100

Sweden - OMXS30 Europe - STOXX US - S&P 500

Implied stock market volatility

per cent

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Sweden - OMX Europe - STOXXUS - S&P 500 Historical average, OMX

P/E-ratios

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09Sweden - OMXS30Europe - STOXXUS - S&P 500Historical average, Stoxx, OMXS30 and S&P 500

Difference between mortgage bond yield and government

bond yield basis points

Chart B.1 Source: Reuters Ecowin

Represents the difference between mortgage bonds with maturity in June 2011 and government bond with maturity March 2011

Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08

Swedbank SEB Handelsbanken Nordea

Current account as percentage of GDPPer cent

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008H1

Chart B2 Source: Reuters EcoWin

CDS premiums for Icelandic banks

basis points

Kaupthing Glitnir Landsbanki Icelandic government Reference bank

Chart B3 Source: Bloomberg

Banking system’s assets as a percentage of GDP

Per cent

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008H1

Domestic assets Foreign assets

Development of the icelandic krona against the euro

jan-03 jan-04 jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09

Swedish actors’ changed propensity to take risk

compared to six months ago

Increased sharply

Increased somewhat

Neither increased or decreased

Decreased somewhat

Decreased sharply

Have no idea

Figure R.6 Source: The Riksbank’s risk survey. Answer to the question: How has your propensity to take risk changed compared to six months ago?

Swedish actors’ buffers of liquid assets have increased somewhat

Increased sharply

Increased somewhat

Neither increased or decreased

Decreased somewhat

Decreased sharply

Have no idea

Figure R.7Source: The Riksbank’s risk survey. Answer to the question: How has your institution’s buffer of liquid assets changedin relation to six months ago?

Do you consider that the financial crisis has peaked?

Have no idea

Figure R.8Source: The Riksbank’s risk survey. Answer to the question: ”Do you consider that the financial crisis has peaked?

The Swedish Household Sector and

House Prices

The banks' lending broken down into Swedish and foreign households and

companies, Per cent

Note. Refers to total loan stock in September 2008.

Source: The RiksbankChart 2:1

Swedish households 22%

Swedish companies 22%

Foreign households 19%

Foreign companies 37%

Households' nominal disposable income and

saving ratioPercentage change and per cent

Note. Households' saving ratio is defined as households' savings in relation to disposable income.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:2

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

Disposable income Saving ratio

Household borrowing for purchase of housing

Percentage change SEK billion

Source: The RiksbankChart 2:3

05 06 07 08

New loans, volume (right scale) Annual percentage change (left scale)

Households' debt ratio and interest ratio

Per cent of disposable income

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Chart 2:4

83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11

Debt ratio (left scale) Interest ratio (right scale)

Mortgage rate, interbank rate and repo rate

Per cent

Note. Refers to an average of the three month mortgage rate from Handelsbanken, Nordea, SBAB and SEB, the three month interbank rate and the monthly average of the three month mortgage rates for new lending by the mortgage institutions.

Chart 2:5 Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Average mortgage rate Repo rate

Interbank rate Mortgage institutions' new loans rate

Duration of fixed interest periods for new mortgage

loansPer cent

Source: The Riksbank

Chart 2:6

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Variable rate Fixed rate > 3 months Fixed rate > 5 years

Households below the margin, impaired loans and potential

loan lossesPer cent

Note. Potential loan losses can not be calculated since the data does not contain values of households' total wealth.

Chart 2:7 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

2004 2005 2006 2007(preliminaryoutcome)

2008 (forecast)

2009 (forecast)

Households below the margin Impaired loans Potential loan losses

Percentage debt held by indebted households in different income

groupsPer cent

Note. Income group 1 consists of the indebted households with the lowest disposable income and income group 5 consists of the indebted households with the highest disposable income.

Chart 2:8

Income group 1 Income group 2 Income group 3 Income group 4 Income group 5

House prices Index: 1986=100

Source: Statistics Sweden

Chart 2:9

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

Sweden Stockholm region Göteborg region Malmö region

Tenant-owned apartment prices

SEK per square metre

Source: www.maklarstatistik.se

Chart 2:10

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Sweden Sweden exclusive metropolitan areasStockholm region Göteborg regionMalmö region

Housing investment in relation to GDP, seasonally

adjustedPer cent

Chart 2:11 Sources: Statistics Sweden, national statistics offices and the Riksbank

97 99 01 03 05 07 09

Sweden Norway Denmark United Kingdom Spain USA

Number of housing starts in relation to population

Per cent

Note. The number of housing starts in Sweden during 2006 and 2007 is overestimated , as a result of the "Odell foundation slabs" (Odellplattorna); the actual number of housing starts was much lower, according to the National Board of Housing, Building and Planning.

81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08

Sweden Norway Denmark United Kingdom Spain USA

The Swedish Corporate

Sector

Profitability in Swedish companies

Per cent

Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbanken

dec-99 dec-00 dec-01 dec-02 dec-03 dec-04 dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08

Chart 2:13

The number of company bankruptcies broken down by company size

Twelve-month moving average

Chart 2:14

All companies 1-9 employees 10-49 employees

Corporate borrowing from credit institutions

Annual percentage change

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Chart 2:15

Corporate borrowing from credit institutions and their securities funding in Sweden and

abroadSEK billion

Chart 2:16

Swedish credit institutions Interest bearing securities in Sweden

Foreign credit institutions Interest bearing securities abroad

Corporate borrowing from credit institutions and gross fixed capital

investmentsAnnual percentage change

Chart 2:17

Corporate borrowing from credit institutions Gross fixed capital investments

Forecast

Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbanken

Debt/total assets ratio in Swedish listed companies

Per cent

dec-98 dec-99 dec-00 dec-01 dec-02 dec-03 dec-04 dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08

Chart 2:18 Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbanken

The four major banks’ lending rates on new loans signed by non-financial companies

Per cent

Chart 2:19 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Interest coverage ratio in Swedish listed companies

jun-00 jun-01 jun-02 jun-03 jun-04 jun-05 jun-06 jun-07 jun-08

Current ratio in Swedish listed companies

Per cent

Corporate credit quality measured by expected default frequency (EDF), historical

outcomes and forecasts according to the Riksbank’s main scenario

Per cent

Sources: Moody’s KMV och the Riksbank

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Chart 2:22

Commercial property

Prices of office premisesSweden, UK, Ireland, USAAnnual percentage change

Chart 2:23 Sources: IPD, Reuters EcoWin, MIT Center for Real Estate, Newsec and the Riksbank

83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09

Sweden UK Ireland USA

Real prices of office premises in city centres

Index: 1981=100

Chart 2:24 Sources: Newsec and the Riksbank

82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09

Stockholm Göteborg Malmö

Vacancy rate for office premises in city centres

Per cent

91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09

Stockholm Göteborg Malmö

Real prices and rents for office premises in Stockholm city

centreAnnual percentage change

83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07

Prices Rents

Required return on office premises in the United Kingdom

Per cent

Chart 2:27 Sources: IPD and Reuters EcoWin

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

Average required direct return for modern office premises in

city centresPer cent

Chart 2:28 Sources: Newsec and Reuters EcoWin

82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

Stockholm Göteborg Malmö Five-year government bond

The Swedish banks’

borrowers abroad

Geographical breakdown of the major banks’ lending

Rest of the world 16%

Germany 6%

Other Nordic countries 27%

Sweden 47%

The Baltic countries 4%

Chart 2:29 Source: The Riksbanken

House prices in the Nordic countries

Sweden Norway Denmark Finland

Chart 2:30 Source: Reuters EcoWin and the BIS

Borrowing by companies i Nordic countries

index 2006=100

jan-06 apr-06 jul-06 okt-06 jan-07 apr-07 jul-07 okt-07 jan-08 apr-08 jul-08 okt-08

Finland Denmark Norway

Expected default frequency for listed non-financial companies

(EDF)Per cent

sep-03 sep-04 sep-05 sep-06 sep-07 sep-08Sweden Norway DenmarkFinland Germany

Chart 2:32 Source: Moody’s KMV

House prices in Germany and abroad

index 2000=100

mar-00 mar-01 mar-02 mar-03 mar-04 mar-05 mar-06 mar-07 mar-08

Sweden Germany USA UK

The Baltic countries

GDP growthAnnual percentage change

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Chart 2:34 Source: Reuters Ecowin

Consumer Confidence IndicatorNet figures, per cent

Chart 2:35 Sources: European Commission and Reuters Ecowin

Current accountPercentage of GDP, totalled over four

quarters

dec-00 dec-01 dec-02 dec-03 dec-04 dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08

Number of job vacancies

30000m

Real wagesQuarterly change, seasonally adjusted on an

annual rate

Chart 2:38 Sources: Reuters Ecowin and Riksbank calculations

Harmonised index for consumer prices

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Household borrowing in the Baltic countries

jan-01 jan-02 jan-03 jan-04 jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08

Chart 2:40 Sources: Reuters Ecowin and national central banks

Corporate borrowing in the Baltic countries

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-10

Households´ and companies´ debt in relation to GDP

Per cent

Estonia Latvia Lithuania Sweden

Developments in the banks

Profit before loan losses and loan losses (net) in the major

banksSummed up over four quarters, SEK billion, fixed prices,

2008-09-30

Chart 3:1 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank

Dec-90 Dec-92 Dec-94 Dec-96 Dec-98 Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08

Profit before loan losses Loan losses

Income and costs for the major Swedish banks

The last four-quarter period compared with the preceding four quarters, SEK billion

2006Q4 - 2007Q3 87,0 52,2 21,3 10,3 -53,6 -34,8

2007Q4 - 2008Q3 102,0 48,5 13,5 9,8 -57,2 -37,8

Net interest income

Net comission income

Net results of financial

operationsOther income

Personnel-related costs

Other costs

The development of income and costs and the gap between their

rates of growthPer cent and percentage points, rolling four

quarters

06:1 06:2 06:3 06:4 07:1 07:2 07:3 07:4 08:1 08:2 08:3

Gap (percentage points) Income Costs

Cost efficiency of the major banksPer cent

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

C/I ratio C/I ratio according to IFRS

Development of net comission- and net interest

income since 2005Growth rate, rolling four quarters, per cent

kv1 kv2 kv3 kv4 kv1 kv2 kv3 kv4 kv1 kv2 kv3 kv4 kv1

2005 2006 2007 2008

Net interest income Net commission income

The major banks’ securities-related commission income and OMX turnover

and indexIndex: 2003 Q1=100

Chart 3:6 Sources: Bank reports, Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

kv1 kv2 kv3 kv4 kv1 kv2 kv3 kv4 kv1 kv2 kv3 kv4 kv1 kv2 kv3 kv4 kv1 kv2 kv3 kv4 kv1

03 04 05 06 07 08

Asset management-related incomeOMX indexBrokerage incomeOMX turnover

Spread between covered bonds and swap rate

Basis points

Chart B9 Source: Bloomberg

Jan-06

Apr-06

Jul-06

Oct-06

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Spread between 2-year covered bond and 2-year swap rate

Spread between 5-year covered bond and 5-year swap rate

Spread between the major banks' Swedish mortgage loans and a

three-month swap rateBasis points

Chart B10 Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

Bank shares’ implied volatility

10-day moving average, per cent

Chart 3:7 Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

SEB Handelsbanken Nordea Swedbank

Share price development in the Swedish major banks and the

European financial sectorIndex: 2007-07-01 = 100

Chart 3:8 Sources: OMX and Reuters EcoWin

Oct-07

Oct-08

SEB Handelsbanken Nordea Swedbank Europa

Market shares in the Baltic countries

Per cent, September 2008

Swedbank SEB Nordea Övriga

Lending per segmentSEK billion, September 2008

Nordea SEB Handelsbanken SwedbankHousehold mortgages Household consumption

Property management companies Other companies

The Major banks’ credit losses per quarter

Percentage of lending to the public

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Actual and probable loan losses Recoveries and reversals

Totala loan losses, net (right scale)

Tier 1 capital ratiosPer cent

Note. Swedbank’s ratio includes a guaranteed rights issue of SEK 12.4 billion.

The banks' source of fundingPercentage of total funding

Chart 3:13 Source: Bank reports and the Riksbank

Note: The item “Liquidity supplied by the Riksbank and the SNDO” includes the four major banks’ share of the sums loaned in the Riksbank’s SEK and USD auctions, the SNDO’s reverse repos in connection with its extra auctions of treasury bills and the securities that the banks have issued with State guarantees. It is assumed that the supply of liquidity will replace part of the banks’ funding. Issued securities have therefore been reduced by the corresponding sums in the chart.

Debt securities issued40%Deposits from

general public48%

Borrowing, interbank

Liquidity supplied by the Riksbank and the SNDO

Maturity of outstanding bondsPercentage of issued securities

Chart 3:14 Sources: Bank reports, Bloomberg and the Riksbank

2009 2010 2011

The banks’ deposits and lendingSEK billion

01:1 02:1 03:1 04:1 05:1 06:1 07:1 08:1

Lending Deposits Deposit deficit

The major bank with the lowest Tier 1 capital ratio after another Swedish major

bank defaulted on paymentsPer cent

Chart 3:16 Source: The Riksbank

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

The size of the exposures in relation to Tier 1 capital

Per cent

Chart B11

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Counterparty exposures, shares of total exposures

Per cent

Chart B12 Source: The Riksbank

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008H1

Other lending without collateral Securities, gross Derivatives, gross

SEB and Swedbank’s credit risk cover, year 3, according to the scenario on a deterioration in creditworthiness in

the Baltic countriesPer cent

Chart 3:17

SEB Swedbank

2007 Q2 2007 Q4 2008 Q2

Credit risk cover, year 3, according to the scenario on an economic downturnPer cent

Chart 3:18

SEB Swedbank Nordea Handelsbanken

2007Q2 2007Q4 2008Q2

Combined stress testBase case a) Sweden b) Baltic countries c) Rest of the world*

Lending, SEK billion 3 095 318 3 031

% of exposure assumed to default Probability of default, PD

0.6 % property companies0.4 % other companies & households

2.6 % property companies2 % other companies & households

0.5 % all borrowers

Loss Given Default 20 % 60 % 40 %

Reserve requirement, SEK billion Expected Loss, EL

2.5 4 6

Reserve requirement as percentage of lending

0.08 % 1.26 % 0.20 %

* Primarily other Nordic countries

Stress scenario a) Sweden b) Baltic countries c) Rest of the world*

Lending, SEK billion 3 095 318 3 031

% of exposure assumed to default Probability of default, PD

6 % property companies3 % other companies & households

Loss Given Default 20 % 60 % 40 %

Reserve requirement, SEK billion Expected Loss, EL

22 22 33

Reserve requirement as percentage of lending

0.7 % 12 % property companies6 % other companies & households

* Primarily other Nordic countries

Combined stress test – results

Base case a) Sweden b) Baltic countries c) Rest of the world*

a) Sweden a) 22

b) Baltic countries a)+b)44

C) Rest of the world a)+c)55

b)+c)55

Combined scenario, a)+b)+c)77* Primarily other Nordic countries

Increased financing costs in a 3-month liquidity crisis as a percentage of Q2

profitsPer cent

Handelsbanken SEB Nordea Swedbank

Some useful metrics Household margins

The amount of income left for a household after

minimum expenditures needed for food and clothing,

interest rates and non-interest related housing

expenditures have been paid.

Margin for household k: Mk =Disposable incomek –(base

amount)*(household sizek ) –(interest expendituresk) –

(other housing expenditures of the income decile)

In 2006 the base amount was 39 700 SEK.

Some useful metrics, cont

Exposure at default (EAD): The share of total debt held by

vulnerable households Loss given default (LGD):

The share of total debt, held by vulnerable debts, that is not covered by assets

Financial markets. Selection of interest rates in the US money market per cent Chart 1:1 Source: Reuters EcoWin.

reuters ecowin slide

reuters ecowin bloomberg

cent chart b4 source

euro chart b5 source

reuters ecowin note

cent chart b2source

cds index basis points

euro area basis points

Documents

Reuters Derivativy

Reuters 2011

Chernobyl. Reuters

THOMSON REUTERS EDITED TRANSCRIPT...THOMSON REUTERS |...

Reuters · Reuters

Chapter 1. Sovereign debt Percentage of GDP Sources: Reuters...

Ecowin Frühjahrsvorschau 2015

Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism Reuters...

Reuters focus

Australia - 1€¦ · FINLAND DENMARK SWITZERLAND 140 QTC.....

Thomson Reuters: комплексная поддержка.....

REUTERS - SEC · I Reuters is an indirect wholly-owned...

Technical Reuters

Ecowin Vorschau Herbst 2015

THOMSON REUTERS MATCHING API · THOMSON REUTERS MATCHING...

REUTERS/Ali Jarekji - Thomson Reuters