Executive Board Meeting 20 April 2005
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Norges Bank
1
Executive Board Meeting20 April 2005
Norges Bank
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Economic developments
Norges Bank
3
Global and regional growth - figures from the IMF
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10US Asia excl. Japan Eastern Europe World
Source: IMF
Norges Bank
4
Global and regional growth - figures from the IMF
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10Euro area Japan World
Source: IMF
Norges Bank
5
Growth forecast from Consensus Forecasts
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Verden Nord-Amerika
Vest-Europa
Japan Asiauten
Japan
Øst-Europa
Latin-Amerika
anslag mars anslag april
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Verden Nord-Amerika
Vest-Europa
Japan Asiauten
Japan
Øst-Europa
Latin-Amerika
Forecast February Forecast March
Source: Consensus Forecasts
2005 2006
Norges Bank
6
Developments in 10-year government bond yields
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Jan 04 May 04 Sep 04 Jan 05
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Source: EcoWin
Norway
US
Germany
Norges Bank
7
Developments on the Oslo Stock Exchange and international stock exchanges
Daily figures. 3 January 2005 = 100. 1 January – 19 April 2005
96
100
104
108
112
jan feb mar apr
Oslo Stock Exchange
UK, FTSE 100
Germany, DAX
90
94
98
102
106
jan feb mar apr
Japan, Topix
USA, Wilshire 5000
Source: EcoWin
Norges Bank
8
Development in credit spreadsPercentage points. Daily figures
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2002 2003 2004 2005
US, BBB 5 years
Euro area, BBB 5 years
EMBI+
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2002 2003 2004 2005
Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
9
3,7
3,8
3,9
4
4,1
01 05 09 13 17
Development in credit spreadsPercentage points. Daily figures. 1 April - 19 April 2005
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
01 05 09 13 17
US, BBB 5 year
Euro area, BBB 5 year
EMBI+
Source: EcoWin and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
10
Interest rate expectations 18 April 2005
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jun 03 Dec 03 Jun 04 Dec 04 Jun 05 Dec 05 Jun 06
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Sources: Norges Bank and Reuters
UK
Euro area
US
Norway
Norges Bank
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Interest rate expectations Norway
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jun 03 Dec 03 Jun 04 Dec 04 Jun 05 Dec 05 Jun 06
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Sources: Norges Bank and Reuters
16 MarchNorway
18 April
Norges Bank
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Interest rate increases in this business cycle
Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg and Norges Bank
First interest rate increase
Key rate at lowest level
Current key rate
Change since lowest level
Iceland 06.05.2004 5.30 9.00 3.70
New Zealand 29.01.2004 5.00 6.75 1.75
UK 06.11.2003 3.50 4.75 1.25
US 30.06.2004 1.00 2.75 1.75
Australia 08.05.2002 4.25 5.50 1.25
Canada 08.09.2004 2.00 2.50 0.50
Switzerland 17.06.2004 0.00-0.75 0.25-1.25 0.50
Euro area 2.00 2.00 0.00
Sweden 2.00 2.00 0.00
Japan Close to zero Close to zero 0.00
Trading partners1) 06.05.2004 2.02 2.32 0.30
1) Estimated as a weighted average of 10 countries, where the weightings take account of the countries with a fixed exchange rate against USD. On 31 December 2003 this interest rate was 2.16 per cent.
Norges Bank
13
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
01.Jan 15.Jan 29.Jan 12.Feb 26.Feb 12.Mar 26.Mar 09.Apr
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
Exchange rate movements I-44 in 2005
Monetary policy meeting and Inflation Report
Source: Norges Bank
Norges Bank
14
Daily percentage change and historical volatility (one month) for EURNOK
-2
0
2
4
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
-2
0
2
4
0
5
10
15
20
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
0
5
10
15
20
Source: EcoWin and Norges Bank
Volatility
Daily percentage change
Norges Bank
15
Historical volatility for EURSEK, EURNOK and EURGBP
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan 03 May 03 Sep 03 Jan 04 May 04 Sep 04 Jan 05
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14EURNOK EURSEK EURGBP
Source: Reuters
Norges Bank
16
Manufacturing output indexVolume. Index. 3-month moving average
90
95
100
105
110
115
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
90
95
100
105
110
115
Consumer goods
Intermediate goods
Capital goods
Source: Statistics Norway
Norges Bank
17
4
6
8
10
12
14
2002 2003 2004 2005
4
6
8
10
12
14
C2 households
Other loans
Mortgage loans
C2 for households by mortgage loans and other loans
12-month growth. Per cent
Source: Norges Bank
Norges Bank
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Credit to mainland enterprises12-month growth. Per cent
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
2002 2003 2004 2005
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
Total credit
Domestic credit
Credit from foreign sources
Source: Norges Bank
Norges Bank
19
Price index for non-residential commercial propertyPrice per square metre. Growth on same half year previous year. Per cent
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Source: Statistics Norway
Norges Bank
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House prices from the Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents1)
12-month rise. Monthly figures. Per cent
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
-10
0
10
20
30
40
NEF
Source: OBOS and Associations of Norwegian Real Estate Agents (NEF, EFF)
OBOS
1) OBOS prices: Break in series from Jan 04
Norges Bank
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Housing starts (last 12 months)In thousands
0
10
20
30
40
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
0
10
20
30
40
Sources: Statistics Norway
Norges Bank
22
Goods consumption index
120
130
140
150
Jan 04 Apr 04 Jul 04 Oct 04 Jan 05
120
130
140
150
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
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Unemployment in some occupationsSeasonally adjusted. Index January 2004=100
80
90
100
110
120
Jan 04 Mar 04 May 04 Jul 04 Sep 04 Nov 04 Jan 05 Mar 05
80
90
100
110
120
Source: Aetat Directorate of Labour
Nursing and health care
Clerical/commercial work
Total
Administrative and humanistic work
Norges Bank
24
-4,5
-2,5
-0,5
1,5
3,5
jul 03 okt 03 jan 04 apr 04 jul 04 okt 04 jan 05 apr 05
-4,5
-2,5
-0,5
1,5
3,5
CPI-ATETotal and broken down by imported and domestically produced goods and
services1). Historical price inflation and projections IR 1/05 (broken line)12-month rise. Per cent
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Domestically produced goods and services (0.7)
1) Norges Bank's estimates.
Imported consumer goods (0.3))
CPI-ATE
Norges Bank
25
Projections for the CPI-ATE and the output gapInflation Report 1/05. Per cent
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
CPI-ATE
Output gap
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