Executive Board Meeting 20 April 2005

Norges Bank

1

Executive Board Meeting20 April 2005

Norges Bank

2

Economic developments

Norges Bank

3

Global and regional growth - figures from the IMF

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10US Asia excl. Japan Eastern Europe World

Source: IMF

Norges Bank

4

Global and regional growth - figures from the IMF

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10Euro area Japan World

Source: IMF

Norges Bank

5

Growth forecast from Consensus Forecasts

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Verden Nord-Amerika

Vest-Europa

Japan Asiauten

Japan

Øst-Europa

Latin-Amerika

anslag mars anslag april

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Verden Nord-Amerika

Vest-Europa

Japan Asiauten

Japan

Øst-Europa

Latin-Amerika

Forecast February Forecast March

Source: Consensus Forecasts

2005 2006

Norges Bank

6

Developments in 10-year government bond yields

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Jan 04 May 04 Sep 04 Jan 05

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Source: EcoWin

Norway

US

Germany

Norges Bank

7

Developments on the Oslo Stock Exchange and international stock exchanges

Daily figures. 3 January 2005 = 100. 1 January – 19 April 2005

96

100

104

108

112

jan feb mar apr

Oslo Stock Exchange

UK, FTSE 100

Germany, DAX

90

94

98

102

106

jan feb mar apr

Japan, Topix

USA, Wilshire 5000

Source: EcoWin

Norges Bank

8

Development in credit spreadsPercentage points. Daily figures

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2002 2003 2004 2005

US, BBB 5 years

Euro area, BBB 5 years

EMBI+

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2002 2003 2004 2005

Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank

Norges Bank

9

3,7

3,8

3,9

4

4,1

01 05 09 13 17

Development in credit spreadsPercentage points. Daily figures. 1 April - 19 April 2005

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

01 05 09 13 17

US, BBB 5 year

Euro area, BBB 5 year

EMBI+

Source: EcoWin and Norges Bank

Norges Bank

10

Interest rate expectations 18 April 2005

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jun 03 Dec 03 Jun 04 Dec 04 Jun 05 Dec 05 Jun 06

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Sources: Norges Bank and Reuters

UK

Euro area

US

Norway

Norges Bank

11

Interest rate expectations Norway

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jun 03 Dec 03 Jun 04 Dec 04 Jun 05 Dec 05 Jun 06

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Sources: Norges Bank and Reuters

16 MarchNorway

18 April

Norges Bank

12

Interest rate increases in this business cycle

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg and Norges Bank

First interest rate increase

Key rate at lowest level

Current key rate

Change since lowest level

Iceland 06.05.2004 5.30 9.00 3.70

New Zealand 29.01.2004 5.00 6.75 1.75

UK 06.11.2003 3.50 4.75 1.25

US 30.06.2004 1.00 2.75 1.75

Australia 08.05.2002 4.25 5.50 1.25

Canada 08.09.2004 2.00 2.50 0.50

Switzerland 17.06.2004 0.00-0.75 0.25-1.25 0.50

Euro area 2.00 2.00 0.00

Sweden 2.00 2.00 0.00

Japan Close to zero Close to zero 0.00

Trading partners1) 06.05.2004 2.02 2.32 0.30

1) Estimated as a weighted average of 10 countries, where the weightings take account of the countries with a fixed exchange rate against USD. On 31 December 2003 this interest rate was 2.16 per cent.

Norges Bank

13

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

01.Jan 15.Jan 29.Jan 12.Feb 26.Feb 12.Mar 26.Mar 09.Apr

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

Exchange rate movements I-44 in 2005

Monetary policy meeting and Inflation Report

Source: Norges Bank

Norges Bank

14

Daily percentage change and historical volatility (one month) for EURNOK

-2

0

2

4

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

-2

0

2

4

0

5

10

15

20

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

0

5

10

15

20

Source: EcoWin and Norges Bank

Volatility

Daily percentage change

Norges Bank

15

Historical volatility for EURSEK, EURNOK and EURGBP

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan 03 May 03 Sep 03 Jan 04 May 04 Sep 04 Jan 05

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14EURNOK EURSEK EURGBP

Source: Reuters

Norges Bank

16

Manufacturing output indexVolume. Index. 3-month moving average

90

95

100

105

110

115

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

90

95

100

105

110

115

Consumer goods

Intermediate goods

Capital goods

Source: Statistics Norway

Norges Bank

17

4

6

8

10

12

14

2002 2003 2004 2005

4

6

8

10

12

14

C2 households

Other loans

Mortgage loans

C2 for households by mortgage loans and other loans

12-month growth. Per cent

Source: Norges Bank

Norges Bank

18

Credit to mainland enterprises12-month growth. Per cent

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

2002 2003 2004 2005

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

Total credit

Domestic credit

Credit from foreign sources

Source: Norges Bank

Norges Bank

19

Price index for non-residential commercial propertyPrice per square metre. Growth on same half year previous year. Per cent

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Source: Statistics Norway

Norges Bank

20

House prices from the Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents1)

12-month rise. Monthly figures. Per cent

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

-10

0

10

20

30

40

NEF

Source: OBOS and Associations of Norwegian Real Estate Agents (NEF, EFF)

OBOS

1) OBOS prices: Break in series from Jan 04

Norges Bank

21

Housing starts (last 12 months)In thousands

0

10

20

30

40

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

0

10

20

30

40

Sources: Statistics Norway

Norges Bank

22

Goods consumption index

120

130

140

150

Jan 04 Apr 04 Jul 04 Oct 04 Jan 05

120

130

140

150

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank

23

Unemployment in some occupationsSeasonally adjusted. Index January 2004=100

80

90

100

110

120

Jan 04 Mar 04 May 04 Jul 04 Sep 04 Nov 04 Jan 05 Mar 05

80

90

100

110

120

Source: Aetat Directorate of Labour

Nursing and health care

Clerical/commercial work

Total

Administrative and humanistic work

Norges Bank

24

-4,5

-2,5

-0,5

1,5

3,5

jul 03 okt 03 jan 04 apr 04 jul 04 okt 04 jan 05 apr 05

-4,5

-2,5

-0,5

1,5

3,5

CPI-ATETotal and broken down by imported and domestically produced goods and

services1). Historical price inflation and projections IR 1/05 (broken line)12-month rise. Per cent

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Domestically produced goods and services (0.7)

1) Norges Bank's estimates.

Imported consumer goods (0.3))

CPI-ATE

Norges Bank

25

Projections for the CPI-ATE and the output gapInflation Report 1/05. Per cent

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

CPI-ATE

Output gap