Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American & Parapan American Games
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Arnold AshtonOntario Storm Prediction CentreEnvironment Canada
Great Lakes Operational Meteorology WorkshopAnn Arbor, May 13-15, 2014
Page 2 – April 22, 2023
Scope of Games:2014 Sochi Olympics 2015 PanAm/Parapan Games
No. Of Athletes and Coaches
2900 Athletes 8000 – PanAm
2000 – Parapan
Volunteers 25,000 23,000
No. of Sports 16 – Olympics (10 outdoors)
4 – Paralympics (3 outdoors)
40 – PanAm (18 Outdoors)
10 – Parapan
Range of Spectator Seating
Up to 12,000(40,000 – Opening/Closing Ceremonies)
1,500 to 20,000(potentially 70,000 – Opening/Closing Ceremonies)
Duration 16 Days – Olympics
9 Days – Paralympics
(6 Weeks total with Prep time and Wrap-Up)
14 Days – Pan AM
7 Days – Parapan
(6 Weeks total with Prep time and Wrap-Up)
No. Of Participating Countries
88 42
PanAm: July 10-26, 2015Parapan: Aug 7-15, 2015
Page 3 – April 22, 2023
Previous Games: Guadalajara, 2011
Page 4 – April 22, 2023
Environment Canada’s Role:
Two-pronged goal:- Safety and security during the Games
- Showcase EC’s advancement in science and technology
Enhanced service:- Two PanAm desks + One Briefer desk
- Issue VENUE-specific warnings and Tailored venue forecasts
Page 5 – April 22, 2023
Main Goal(s): Training
To create a FRAMEWORK:
- CONSISTENCY in forecasts & warnings
- ACCURACY in forecasts & warnings
- To improve warning LEAD TIMES (and reduce False Alarms)
Page 6 – April 22, 2023
Severe Weather Warnings are important, especially in large crowd scenarios such
as the 2015 Games
OttawaJul 17, 2011
• SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN• ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA• AT 12:02 PM EDT TUESDAY 29 MAY 2012.• ---------------------------------------------------------------------
• SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:• =NEW= CALEDON• =NEW= NEWMARKET - GEORGINA - NORTHERN YORK REGION =NEW=
SHELBURNE - MANSFIELD - NORTHERN DUFFERIN COUNTY =NEW= INNISFIL - NEW TECUMSETH - ANGUS =NEW= HANOVER - DUNDALK - SOUTHERN GREY COUNTY =NEW= BARRIE - COLLINGWOOD - HILLSDALE
• STRATFORD - MITCHELL - SOUTHERN PERTH COUNTY• LISTOWEL - MILVERTON - NORTHERN PERTH COUNTY• MOUNT FOREST - ARTHUR - NORTHERN WELLINGTON COUNTY• ORANGEVILLE - GRAND VALLEY - SOUTHERN DUFFERIN COUNTY.
• A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT• 70 KM/H THROUGH THE AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING
2• TO 4 CM HAIL, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS TO 90 KM/H.
• SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN THE AREA.• THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS OR HEAVY• RAINFALL. REMEMBER THAT SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO• PRODUCE TORNADOES.
• EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ONTARIO RECOMMENDS TAKING COVER• IMMEDIATELY WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.
• ==DISCUSSION==• A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF ONTARIO BY EARLY EVENING BRINGING AN END TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
• REFER TO YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
• END/OSPC
SUMMER SEVERE WEATHER
Heavy Rain Strong Winds Air Quality
Lightning Hail Heat/UV
CamroseAug 1, 2009
Page 7 – April 22, 2023
Weather Warnings are issued on Sub-Region Scale.
Severe Weather Warnings, Smog and Humidex Advisories are Issued as Required
Forecasts are for broad areas
The Severe Weather can be sub sub regional! Or Points!
NEED VENUE WARNINGS!
Severe ThunderstormWarning
Page 8 – April 22, 2023
Observationally-challenged
Page 9
• Compact Weather Stations – station on a stick– Temperature – Humidity– Pressure– Wind Speed and Direction– Rain – Start, Intensity, amount, stop
• High Resolution digital weather camera
• Black Globe Temperature Sensor (Heat stress)
Page 10
• Compact Weather Stations – station on a stick– Temperature – Humidity– Pressure– Wind Speed and Direction– Rain – Start, Intensity, amount, stop
• High Resolution digital weather camera
• Black Globe Temperature Sensor (Heat stress)
Page 11
• ATMOS Weather Stations – fancier– Temperature – Humidity– Pressure– Wind Speed and Direction (10 m)– Rain – Start, Intensity, amount, stop
• Research grade equipment (WMO guidelines)
Page 12
• Radiosondes – 4 X per day
Page 13
• Wave Rider Buoy Near sailing
• Watchkeeper Buoy Events
Page 14
• 4 X-band phased array radars
• 2 Lidars (Doppler pointing upwards)
Page 15 – April 22, 2023
Wind
GPS
Logger Pressure
T/RH (ventilated)
CompassThree units
EC AMMOS Mobile Mesonet Stations
Page 16 – April 22, 2023
Lightning Mapping Array
Page 17 – April 22, 2023
Lightning Mapping Array-Google Earth example showing two strikes
Page 18 – April 22, 2023Courtesy: Dr. David Sills
Page 19 – April 22, 2023
Page 20 – April 22, 2023
GUIDANCE from EXPERIMENTAL SUB-KM NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION
250-m grid spacing computational domain
• Heat episodes
• Lake breezes
• Initiation, evolution, and intensification of intense convective activity
Test the ability of new NWP to provide improved guidance for the following events over the GTA:
Page 21 – April 22, 2023
Ontario Hourly AQHI Forecasts
Pilot Project Launched during the Pan Am Games for:
•Toronto Downtown
•Toronto Island
•Toronto East
•Toronto West
•Toronto North
•York University
•Hamilton Downtown
•Hamilton Mountain
Page 22 – April 22, 2023
Heat and Health
Page 23
Questions?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Pan_American_Games#Venues
http://www.toronto2015.org/
Contact: Arnold Ashton
Arnold.Ashton@ec.gc.ca
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