Draft Strategy 2-6-09 Revised 3-10-09 RMP Modeling Strategy John Oram Jay Davis.

Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09

RMP Modeling StrategyRMP Modeling Strategy

John Oram

Jay Davis

Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09

IntentIntent

• To develop a capacity to predict the effect of different management alternatives on – loads from watersheds,

– the recovery of contaminated areas on the Bay margin,

– the recovery of the Bay as a whole

Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09

ApproachApproach

• To develop conceptual and numeric models of the physical, chemical, and biological processes governing the fate of water, sediment, and pollutants of concern in San Francisco Bay and its associated watersheds

Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09

Question 1 : Bay MarginsQuestion 1 : Bay Margins

• What is the contribution of contaminated Bay margins to impairment in the Bay and what are the projected impacts of management actions to the Bay's recovery?

Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09

Question 2 : Bay RecoveryQuestion 2 : Bay Recovery

• What patterns of exposure are forecast for major segments of the Bay under various management scenarios?

Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09

Question 3 : Small Tributary LoadsQuestion 3 : Small Tributary Loads

• What are the projected impacts of management actions on loads or concentrations of pollutants of concern from the high-leverage small tributaries?

• Where should management actions be implemented in the region to have the greatest impact?

Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09

Strategy : CoordinationStrategy : Coordination

• Establish a Bay Area Modeling Forum that will– guide agencies and NGOs in the selection, use, and

interpretation of models for describing sediment-water relationships in fluvial and tidal systems

– improve communication and coordination of local modelers and stakeholders

– reduce duplication of efforts

– improve the overall quality of modeling products

Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09

Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model

• Develop a flexible grid model capable of implicitly allowing for the interaction of fine-scale processes occurring at the Bay Margins with the larger-scale processes of the Bay proper

Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09

Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model

• What is a flexible grid anyway?– An approach to allow increased resolution in areas of concern

Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09

Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model

# cells 44,148

cell size Curvilinear 50 m to 1.3 km

dt (min) 1.0 - 0.1

Curvilinear Grid

Delft3d grid from P. Barnard (USGS)

Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09

Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model

SUNTANS grid of Puget Sound

Unstructured Grid

Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09

Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model• Some Model Options

– Multibox• + Good for hypothesis testing• - Limited spatial/temporal resolution• - Limited ability to calibrate/validate• - Limited sediment capabilites

– 3D Commercial : Delft3D, Mike, TRIM, UnTRIM• - Licensing can be costly• + Set-up often less complex than open-source• + ‘Package Deal’ - includes pre- and post-processing software• + Technical support is available• - ‘Black Box’

– 3D Open-Source : ROMS, SUNTANS, …• + Freely available• +/- State-of-the-art• +/- Community Support• - Set-up can be challenging• +/- Time is largest expense

Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09

Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model

• What is SUNTANS?– Stanford Unstructured Nonhydrostatic Terrain-

following Adaptive Navier-Stokes Simulator

– ‘Next generation’ of coastal models

– Co-developed in SF Bay by Stanford and UC Berkeley

– Open-Source

– Includes water, sediment, contaminant capabilities

– Accounts for tidal wetting/drying

– Ocean boundary condition can be driven by ROMS

Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09

Strategy : Local WatershedsStrategy : Local Watersheds

• Develop models of key watersheds over the next three years with the goal of developing a regional model (or set of models)

• Watersheds will be identified by SPLWG and Small Tributaries Strategy Team– These groups will provide project oversight as well.

Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09

Task Questions 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Bay & Margins Modeling

Margins Conceptual Model 1 $40,000

South Bay Hydrodynamic Model 1,2 $30,000a

Include Sediment Transport in South Bay Model 1,2 $75,000

Fieldwork to support South Bay Hotspot / Tributary Modeling

1,2 $50,000

Hotspots and Tributary modeling in South Bay (Water, Sediment, Contaminant, Biota)

1 $100,000

Extend Model to Larger Bay (Water and Sediment) 1,2 $100,000

Add Contaminants and Biota to Larger Bay Model 1,2 $140,000

Watershed Modeling

Guadalupe Watershed Model 3 $75,000 $75,000

Second Watershed Model (South Bay) 3 $75,000

Third Watershed Model (North Bay) 3 $75,000

Large Scale Watershed Model 3 $100,000

Coordination

Bay Area Modeling Forum 1,2,3 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000

Total $75,000 $150,000 $205,000 $180,000 $205,000 $145,000

Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09

Model ProposalModel Proposal

• What: Development of a highly-resolved three-dimensional model of South Bay

• Who: Mark Stacey (UCB), Rusty Holleman (UCB), Ed Gross (Consultant), John Oram (SFEI)

• Why: Project would provide support for a UCB graduate student to continue development of South Bay model and would help insure that development is relevant to RMP objectives.

Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09

Model ProposalModel Proposal

• Specifics: Aim is to develop flexible grid of South Bay with emphasis on 1 or 2 tributaries (e.g., Guadalupe) and a Bay margin site (e.g., San Leandro Bay). Model will be useful for answering questions related to flushing times and exchange processes (e.g., what is influence of margin on Bay?).

• Budget:Stacey and Holleman UCB $35k

Ed Gross Consultant $5k

RMP Staff $4k