Draft Strategy 2- 6-09 Revised 3-10-09 RMP Modeling Strategy John Oram Jay Davis
Mar 27, 2015
Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
RMP Modeling StrategyRMP Modeling Strategy
John Oram
Jay Davis
Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
IntentIntent
• To develop a capacity to predict the effect of different management alternatives on – loads from watersheds,
– the recovery of contaminated areas on the Bay margin,
– the recovery of the Bay as a whole
Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
ApproachApproach
• To develop conceptual and numeric models of the physical, chemical, and biological processes governing the fate of water, sediment, and pollutants of concern in San Francisco Bay and its associated watersheds
Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Question 1 : Bay MarginsQuestion 1 : Bay Margins
• What is the contribution of contaminated Bay margins to impairment in the Bay and what are the projected impacts of management actions to the Bay's recovery?
Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Question 2 : Bay RecoveryQuestion 2 : Bay Recovery
• What patterns of exposure are forecast for major segments of the Bay under various management scenarios?
Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Question 3 : Small Tributary LoadsQuestion 3 : Small Tributary Loads
• What are the projected impacts of management actions on loads or concentrations of pollutants of concern from the high-leverage small tributaries?
• Where should management actions be implemented in the region to have the greatest impact?
Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Strategy : CoordinationStrategy : Coordination
• Establish a Bay Area Modeling Forum that will– guide agencies and NGOs in the selection, use, and
interpretation of models for describing sediment-water relationships in fluvial and tidal systems
– improve communication and coordination of local modelers and stakeholders
– reduce duplication of efforts
– improve the overall quality of modeling products
Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model
• Develop a flexible grid model capable of implicitly allowing for the interaction of fine-scale processes occurring at the Bay Margins with the larger-scale processes of the Bay proper
Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model
• What is a flexible grid anyway?– An approach to allow increased resolution in areas of concern
Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model
# cells 44,148
cell size Curvilinear 50 m to 1.3 km
dt (min) 1.0 - 0.1
Curvilinear Grid
Delft3d grid from P. Barnard (USGS)
Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model
SUNTANS grid of Puget Sound
Unstructured Grid
Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model• Some Model Options
– Multibox• + Good for hypothesis testing• - Limited spatial/temporal resolution• - Limited ability to calibrate/validate• - Limited sediment capabilites
– 3D Commercial : Delft3D, Mike, TRIM, UnTRIM• - Licensing can be costly• + Set-up often less complex than open-source• + ‘Package Deal’ - includes pre- and post-processing software• + Technical support is available• - ‘Black Box’
– 3D Open-Source : ROMS, SUNTANS, …• + Freely available• +/- State-of-the-art• +/- Community Support• - Set-up can be challenging• +/- Time is largest expense
Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model
• What is SUNTANS?– Stanford Unstructured Nonhydrostatic Terrain-
following Adaptive Navier-Stokes Simulator
– ‘Next generation’ of coastal models
– Co-developed in SF Bay by Stanford and UC Berkeley
– Open-Source
– Includes water, sediment, contaminant capabilities
– Accounts for tidal wetting/drying
– Ocean boundary condition can be driven by ROMS
Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Strategy : Local WatershedsStrategy : Local Watersheds
• Develop models of key watersheds over the next three years with the goal of developing a regional model (or set of models)
• Watersheds will be identified by SPLWG and Small Tributaries Strategy Team– These groups will provide project oversight as well.
Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Task Questions 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Bay & Margins Modeling
Margins Conceptual Model 1 $40,000
South Bay Hydrodynamic Model 1,2 $30,000a
Include Sediment Transport in South Bay Model 1,2 $75,000
Fieldwork to support South Bay Hotspot / Tributary Modeling
1,2 $50,000
Hotspots and Tributary modeling in South Bay (Water, Sediment, Contaminant, Biota)
1 $100,000
Extend Model to Larger Bay (Water and Sediment) 1,2 $100,000
Add Contaminants and Biota to Larger Bay Model 1,2 $140,000
Watershed Modeling
Guadalupe Watershed Model 3 $75,000 $75,000
Second Watershed Model (South Bay) 3 $75,000
Third Watershed Model (North Bay) 3 $75,000
Large Scale Watershed Model 3 $100,000
Coordination
Bay Area Modeling Forum 1,2,3 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000
Total $75,000 $150,000 $205,000 $180,000 $205,000 $145,000
Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Model ProposalModel Proposal
• What: Development of a highly-resolved three-dimensional model of South Bay
• Who: Mark Stacey (UCB), Rusty Holleman (UCB), Ed Gross (Consultant), John Oram (SFEI)
• Why: Project would provide support for a UCB graduate student to continue development of South Bay model and would help insure that development is relevant to RMP objectives.
Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Model ProposalModel Proposal
• Specifics: Aim is to develop flexible grid of South Bay with emphasis on 1 or 2 tributaries (e.g., Guadalupe) and a Bay margin site (e.g., San Leandro Bay). Model will be useful for answering questions related to flushing times and exchange processes (e.g., what is influence of margin on Bay?).
• Budget:Stacey and Holleman UCB $35k
Ed Gross Consultant $5k
RMP Staff $4k