Dr. George Hurtt Department of Natural Resources &
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Dr. George HurttDr. George Hurtt
Department of Natural Resources &Department of Natural Resources &
Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Spaceand Space
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire
Durham, NH 03824Durham, NH 03824
george.hurtt@unh.edugeorge.hurtt@unh.edu
November 6, 2003
NAST 2001
IPCC 2001
IPCC 2001
Global C Budget (PgC/y)Global C Budget (PgC/y)
1980s1980s 1990s1990s
Atm. IncreaseAtm. Increase 3.3+/-0.13.3+/-0.1 3.2+/-0.13.2+/-0.1
EmissionsEmissions 5.4+/-0.35.4+/-0.3 6.3+/-0.46.3+/-0.4
Ocean-Atm. FluxOcean-Atm. Flux -1.9+/-0.6-1.9+/-0.6 -1.7+/-0.5-1.7+/-0.5
Land-Atm. Flux*Land-Atm. Flux* -0.2+/-0.7-0.2+/-0.7 -1.4+/-0.7-1.4+/-0.7
*partitioned as *partitioned as followsfollows
Land UseLand Use 1.7(0.6-2.5)1.7(0.6-2.5) NANA
Residual Residual Terrestrial SinkTerrestrial Sink
-1.9(-3.8-0.3)-1.9(-3.8-0.3) NANA
IPCC 2001
IPCC 1994
IPCC 2001
Transport Numbers of RegionsModels 7 12 17
TM2
TM3
GCTMM
Pacala et al., 2001, Science, 292:2316-2320
Land-Based Range
}
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
1990-1994
I II III
Consistent land- and atmosphere- based U.S. carbon Consistent land- and atmosphere- based U.S. carbon sink estimates.sink estimates.
Category Low High
Forest Trees 0.11 0.15 Other Forest Organic Matter 0.03 0.15
Cropland Soils 0.00 0.04 Woody Encroachment 0.12* 0.13*
Wood Products 0.03 0.07 Reservoirs 0.01 0.04
Exports Minus Imports 0.04 0.09
Exported by Rivers 0.03 0.04
Apparent Sink Without WoodyEncroachment 0.25 0.58
Apparent Sink 0.37 0.71
Sink 0.30 0.58
Projecting the Future of the U.S. Carbon SinkProjecting the Future of the U.S. Carbon Sink
Hurtt et al., 2002, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 99(3):1389-1394
Cox et al., 2000, Nature 408:184-187
Coupled Earth System ModelsCoupled Earth System Models
Context for decision making with uncertainty
Kammen & Hassenzahl, 1999, Should We Risk It?, Princeton.
Kammen & Hassenzahl, 1999, Should We Risk It?, Princeton.
Context for decision making with uncertainty
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