Detailed Market Analysis

Housing Update and OutlookHousing Update and Outlook

Western Provinces

Robyn AdamacheSenior Market Analyst

Housing market intelligence you can count on

Today’s Talk

Demand Fundamentals

Resale Market Update & OutlookResale Market Update & Outlook

Housing Demand Fundamentals Stable

Mortgage rates favourable

Population based demand growing

J b Job picture to improve

Renovation spending strongRenovation spending strong

Mortgage Rates to Remain Favourable

10Per Cent

Posted 1 and 5 Year Mortgage Rates

8

10

5-year fixed

6

4 1-year fixed

2

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: Bank of Canada

Mortgage Rates: Now and Then

Posted 5 Year Mortgage Rates(1978 1983) (2005 2010)

20

Per Cent (1978-1983) vs (2005-2010)

10

15

5

10

0

19782005

19822009

19812008

19802007

19792006

19832010

Source: Bank of Canada

2005 2009200820072006 2010

Migration to Increase Next Year

Migration into Western ProvincesNotable Migration Facts

60000

Interprovincial

• Alberta highest between provinces• More people are leaving Manitoba

40000

More people are leaving Manitoba

International

• Majority is from other countries

20000

Majority is from other countries• BC highest among Western provinces

0

BC Alberta Sask Manitoba

2008 2009 2010F 2011F

Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecasts

Unemployment Moves Lower

10

6

8

4

2

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

BC Alberta

Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Calculation

Unemployment Moves Lower

10

6

8

4

2

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Sask Manitoba

Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Calculation

Job Growth Next Year

2 3%

2010F 2011F

2.1%2.0%

2.3%

1.9% 1.9%

1 6%

1.3%

1.6%

0.5%

BC Alberta Sask Man

Source: CMHC Forecasts

Economy Expands in Western Provinces

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

2%

4%

2%

4%

2%

4%

2%

4%

0%

2010 2011

0%

2010 2011

0%

2010 2011

0%

2010 2011

Source: CMHC Forecasts

Renovation Expenditures to Increase

Renovation ExpenditureMilli $

$8,000

pMillions $

$4,000

$6,000

$2,000

$0

BC Alberta Sask Manitoba

2009 2010f 2011f

Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecasts

Housing Demand Steady

Stable demand fundamentals

Mortgage rates to remain favourable

Tourism Victoria

Population based demand growing

J b k i i i dJob markets improving as economies expand

Resale Market

BC Sales to Improve in 2011

BC Residential Sales 120,000

MLS® Sales

90,000

60,000

30,000

0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F2011F 2009 2010

Source: MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), CMHC Forecasts

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F2011F 2009 YTD

2010 YTD

Market Conditions Move in Tandem

100%MLS® Sales to New Listings Ratio

80% Sellers’ REBGV

60%

B l d40%

Buyers’

Balanced

FVREB

20%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

y

Most Lower Mainland Markets Balanced

Buyers’

Squamish

North VanWest Van

Buyers’BalancedSellers’

Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadow

Tri-cities

BurnabyESide

W Side

Richmond

New West

Delta LangleySurrey

Whit R k

Abbotsford

White Rock

Home Price Growth to Slow

$800,000MLS® Average Price (SA) (Greater Vancouver)

ForecastMar 10 $690K

Sept 10 $700,000

Feb 08 $620K

$690K$680K

$600,000

$620K

$500,000

Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11

Detached House Prices Grow Fastest

1.20Index of MLS® Average Price

1.10

Apartment Townhouse Detached

1.00

0.90

0.80

Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10

Victoria – Borderline Buyers’ Market

Victoria Real Estate

$500,000

$600,000

100%

120%

Victoria Real Estate

Seller’s

$300,000

$400,000

60%

80%

Balanced

$0

$100,000

$200,000

0%

20%

40%

Buyer’s$00%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Price

Source: Canadian Real Estate Association

Northern Real Estate Balanced

$300 000100%

BC Northern Real Estate

$200,000

$300,000

80%

100%Seller’sSeller’s

$100,000

$200,000

40%

60%BalancedBalanced

$00%

20% Buyer’sBuyer’s

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Price

Source: Canadian Real Estate Association

Kelowna in Buyers’ Market Conditions

Okanagan Mainline Real Estate$500,000

80%

Okanagan Mainline Real Estate

Seller’s

$300,000

40%

60%

BalancedBalanced

$100 000

$100,000

0%

20%

Buyer’s-$100,0000%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Price

Source: Canadian Real Estate AssociationSource: Canadian Real Estate Association

Alberta Sales to Steady in 2011

BC Residential Sales 90,000

MLS® Sales

60 00060,000

30,000

0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2009 2010

Source: MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), CMHC Forecasts

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2009 YTD

2010 YTD

Sellers’ Conditions in Fort McMurray

$500 000

$600,000

100%

120%

Fort McMurray Real Estate

Seller’s

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

60%

80%

100%

B l d

$100,000

$200,000

20%

40%

Buyer’s

Balanced

$00%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Priceg g

Source: Canadian Real Estate Association

Edmonton Market Balanced

Edmonton Real Estate

$300,000

$400,000

100%

120%Edmonton Real Estate

Seller’s

$200,000

40%

60%

80%

Balanced

$0

$100,000

0%

20%

40%

Buyer’s

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Price

Source: Canadian Real Estate AssociationSource: Canadian Real Estate Association

Calgary Market Borderline Balanced

Calgary Real Estate

$400,000

$500,000

100%

120%

Calgary Real Estate

Seller’s

$200,000

$300,000

40%

60%

80%

Balanced

$0

$100,000

0%

20%

40%

Buyer’s

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Price

Source: Canadian Real Estate Association

Saskatchewan Sales Up Modestly in 2011

BC Residential Sales 15,000

MLS® Sales

12,000

6 000

9,000

3,000

6,000

0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2009 2010

Source: MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), CMHC Forecasts

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2009 YTD

2010 YTD

Regina Market in Sellers’ Conditions

Regina Real Estate

$300,000

80%

100%

Regina Real Estate

Seller’s

$200,000

40%

60%

80%

Balanced

$0

$100,000

0%

20%

40%

Buyer’s

$00%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Price

Source: Canadian Real Estate AssociationSource: Canadian Real Estate Association

Saskatoon Market Balanced

$300,000100%

Saskatoon Real Estate

Seller’s

$200,00060%

80%

Balanced

$100,000

20%

40%

Buyer’s

$00%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Priceg g

Source: Canadian Real Estate AssociationSource: Canadian Real Estate Association

Manitoba Sales Stable in 2011

BC Residential Sales 15,000

MLS® Sales

12,000

6 000

9,000

3,000

6,000

0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2009 2010

Source: MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), CMHC Forecasts

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2009 YTD

2010 YTD

Winnipeg Market Hot

Winnipeg Real Estate$300,000

80%

100%

Winnipeg Real Estate

Seller’s

$100 000

$200,000

40%

60%Balanced

$0

$100,000

0%

20%Buyer’s

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Price

Source: Canadian Real Estate AssociationSource: Canadian Real Estate Association

Wrap Up

Stable demand fundamentals bode well for western marketsStable demand fundamentals bode well for western markets

Alberta & some BC communities slower to recoverAlberta & some BC communities slower to recover

Modest price gains expected

Thank You!!

For More Information Contact:

Robyn AdamacheRobyn Adamacheradamach@cmhc.ca Tel: 604-737-4144

Access Free Market Analysis Reports Online:http://www cmhc-schl gc ca/en/inpr/homain/index cfmhttp://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/inpr/homain/index.cfmIncluding: Rental Market Reports & Forecast Reports (Housing Market Outlook)