Housing Update and Outlook Housing Update and Outlook Western Provinces Robyn Adamache Senior Market Analyst Housing market intelligence you can count on
Detailed Market Analysis
Mar 30, 2016
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Housing Update and OutlookHousing Update and Outlook
Western Provinces
Robyn AdamacheSenior Market Analyst
Housing market intelligence you can count on
Today’s Talk
Demand Fundamentals
Resale Market Update & OutlookResale Market Update & Outlook
Housing Demand Fundamentals Stable
Mortgage rates favourable
Population based demand growing
J b Job picture to improve
Renovation spending strongRenovation spending strong
Mortgage Rates to Remain Favourable
10Per Cent
Posted 1 and 5 Year Mortgage Rates
8
10
5-year fixed
6
4 1-year fixed
2
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Bank of Canada
Mortgage Rates: Now and Then
Posted 5 Year Mortgage Rates(1978 1983) (2005 2010)
20
Per Cent (1978-1983) vs (2005-2010)
10
15
5
10
0
19782005
19822009
19812008
19802007
19792006
19832010
Source: Bank of Canada
2005 2009200820072006 2010
Migration to Increase Next Year
Migration into Western ProvincesNotable Migration Facts
60000
Interprovincial
• Alberta highest between provinces• More people are leaving Manitoba
40000
More people are leaving Manitoba
International
• Majority is from other countries
20000
Majority is from other countries• BC highest among Western provinces
0
BC Alberta Sask Manitoba
2008 2009 2010F 2011F
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecasts
Unemployment Moves Lower
10
6
8
4
2
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
BC Alberta
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Calculation
Unemployment Moves Lower
10
6
8
4
2
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Sask Manitoba
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Calculation
Job Growth Next Year
2 3%
2010F 2011F
2.1%2.0%
2.3%
1.9% 1.9%
1 6%
1.3%
1.6%
0.5%
BC Alberta Sask Man
Source: CMHC Forecasts
Economy Expands in Western Provinces
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
2%
4%
2%
4%
2%
4%
2%
4%
0%
2010 2011
0%
2010 2011
0%
2010 2011
0%
2010 2011
Source: CMHC Forecasts
Renovation Expenditures to Increase
Renovation ExpenditureMilli $
$8,000
pMillions $
$4,000
$6,000
$2,000
$0
BC Alberta Sask Manitoba
2009 2010f 2011f
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecasts
Housing Demand Steady
Stable demand fundamentals
Mortgage rates to remain favourable
Tourism Victoria
Population based demand growing
J b k i i i dJob markets improving as economies expand
Resale Market
BC Sales to Improve in 2011
BC Residential Sales 120,000
MLS® Sales
90,000
60,000
30,000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F2011F 2009 2010
Source: MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), CMHC Forecasts
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F2011F 2009 YTD
2010 YTD
Market Conditions Move in Tandem
100%MLS® Sales to New Listings Ratio
80% Sellers’ REBGV
60%
B l d40%
Buyers’
Balanced
FVREB
20%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
y
Most Lower Mainland Markets Balanced
Buyers’
Squamish
North VanWest Van
Buyers’BalancedSellers’
Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadow
Tri-cities
BurnabyESide
W Side
Richmond
New West
Delta LangleySurrey
Whit R k
Abbotsford
White Rock
Home Price Growth to Slow
$800,000MLS® Average Price (SA) (Greater Vancouver)
ForecastMar 10 $690K
Sept 10 $700,000
Feb 08 $620K
$690K$680K
$600,000
$620K
$500,000
Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11
Detached House Prices Grow Fastest
1.20Index of MLS® Average Price
1.10
Apartment Townhouse Detached
1.00
0.90
0.80
Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10
Victoria – Borderline Buyers’ Market
Victoria Real Estate
$500,000
$600,000
100%
120%
Victoria Real Estate
Seller’s
$300,000
$400,000
60%
80%
Balanced
$0
$100,000
$200,000
0%
20%
40%
Buyer’s$00%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Price
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Northern Real Estate Balanced
$300 000100%
BC Northern Real Estate
$200,000
$300,000
80%
100%Seller’sSeller’s
$100,000
$200,000
40%
60%BalancedBalanced
$00%
20% Buyer’sBuyer’s
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Price
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Kelowna in Buyers’ Market Conditions
Okanagan Mainline Real Estate$500,000
80%
Okanagan Mainline Real Estate
Seller’s
$300,000
40%
60%
BalancedBalanced
$100 000
$100,000
0%
20%
Buyer’s-$100,0000%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Price
Source: Canadian Real Estate AssociationSource: Canadian Real Estate Association
Alberta Sales to Steady in 2011
BC Residential Sales 90,000
MLS® Sales
60 00060,000
30,000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2009 2010
Source: MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), CMHC Forecasts
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2009 YTD
2010 YTD
Sellers’ Conditions in Fort McMurray
$500 000
$600,000
100%
120%
Fort McMurray Real Estate
Seller’s
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
60%
80%
100%
B l d
$100,000
$200,000
20%
40%
Buyer’s
Balanced
$00%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Priceg g
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Edmonton Market Balanced
Edmonton Real Estate
$300,000
$400,000
100%
120%Edmonton Real Estate
Seller’s
$200,000
40%
60%
80%
Balanced
$0
$100,000
0%
20%
40%
Buyer’s
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Price
Source: Canadian Real Estate AssociationSource: Canadian Real Estate Association
Calgary Market Borderline Balanced
Calgary Real Estate
$400,000
$500,000
100%
120%
Calgary Real Estate
Seller’s
$200,000
$300,000
40%
60%
80%
Balanced
$0
$100,000
0%
20%
40%
Buyer’s
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Price
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Saskatchewan Sales Up Modestly in 2011
BC Residential Sales 15,000
MLS® Sales
12,000
6 000
9,000
3,000
6,000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2009 2010
Source: MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), CMHC Forecasts
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2009 YTD
2010 YTD
Regina Market in Sellers’ Conditions
Regina Real Estate
$300,000
80%
100%
Regina Real Estate
Seller’s
$200,000
40%
60%
80%
Balanced
$0
$100,000
0%
20%
40%
Buyer’s
$00%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Price
Source: Canadian Real Estate AssociationSource: Canadian Real Estate Association
Saskatoon Market Balanced
$300,000100%
Saskatoon Real Estate
Seller’s
$200,00060%
80%
Balanced
$100,000
20%
40%
Buyer’s
$00%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Priceg g
Source: Canadian Real Estate AssociationSource: Canadian Real Estate Association
Manitoba Sales Stable in 2011
BC Residential Sales 15,000
MLS® Sales
12,000
6 000
9,000
3,000
6,000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2009 2010
Source: MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), CMHC Forecasts
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2009 YTD
2010 YTD
Winnipeg Market Hot
Winnipeg Real Estate$300,000
80%
100%
Winnipeg Real Estate
Seller’s
$100 000
$200,000
40%
60%Balanced
$0
$100,000
0%
20%Buyer’s
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Price
Source: Canadian Real Estate AssociationSource: Canadian Real Estate Association
Wrap Up
Stable demand fundamentals bode well for western marketsStable demand fundamentals bode well for western markets
Alberta & some BC communities slower to recoverAlberta & some BC communities slower to recover
Modest price gains expected
Thank You!!
For More Information Contact:
Robyn AdamacheRobyn [email protected] Tel: 604-737-4144
Access Free Market Analysis Reports Online:http://www cmhc-schl gc ca/en/inpr/homain/index cfmhttp://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/inpr/homain/index.cfmIncluding: Rental Market Reports & Forecast Reports (Housing Market Outlook)
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