Day 8 - Congressional Elections

Day 8 –The Electoral Game

July 9, 2013

PA National Congressional Districts

Source: http://www.redistricting.state.pa.us/Maps/House.cfm

Pennsylvania State House Map

Source: http://aws.redistricting.state.pa.us/Redistricting/Resources/GISData/Districts/Legislative/House/2011-Revised-Final/PDF/2011-Revised-Final-Plan-Map-House.pdf

Pennsylvania State Senate Map

Source: http://aws.redistricting.state.pa.us/Redistricting/Resources/GISData/Districts/Legislative/Senate/2011-Revised-Final/PDF/2011-Revised-Final-Plan-Map-Senate.pdf

Running for Higher Office – Previous Assumptions Expected utility of winning a higher office - E(Uh)

E(Uh) = phBh – Ch

Expected utility of retaining the current, lower office -E(Ul) E(Ul) = plBl – Cl

Under this assumption, an ambitious politician will attempt to move to higher office when: E(Uh) = phBh – Ch > E(Ul) = plBl – Cl

What is problematic about this assumption?

Running for Higher Office – A Two-Stage Decision Process Maestas and colleagues argue that there is a stable

disposition, or function, that each legislator holds. Stage 1 Progressive Ambition = f(E(UA)

= pgenBmarg – Cmarg + M)

Where pgen is the long-run probability of winning office

Bmarg is the expected gain from the target office

Cmarg is the expected costs from running for the target office M = personal motivations outside of the cost-benefit analysis

Those who enter Stage 2 have already crossed a threshold level of ambition.

Stage 2 Pr(Run | Progressive Ambition > 0 = f(Pt, pgen,Ct,)

f(E(UA)

= pgenBmarg – Cmarg + M)pgen Bmarg Cmarg M

Estimation of winning the party nomination.

Assessment of prestige and effectiveness in U.S. House career.

Family-cost index Desire to make social or business contacts

Estimation of chances of winning the general election.

Assessment relative to current position in state government.

Campaign-cost index

Perception of district partisan balance.

Signals from party.

Results

What is this model predicting?

Moving to the Second Stage f(E(UA) = pgenBmarg – Cmarg + M)

If f(E(UA)) > 0, then they are scored as ‘1’ (i.e. ambitious)

If f(E(UA)) ≤ 0, then then they are scored as ‘0’ (i.e. not ambitious)

Interviews

N = 597

F(E(UA))1

0

N = 263

N = 334

Discussion How do the authors connect their findings to

political responsiveness? What are the implications for their findings? What can they not determine from this study? How might this study be extended?

Making It: The Electoral Game Asking the right questions

What constituency to win over How to become familiar to voters Which leaders or groups to garner support How to reach voters most effectively

Choosing the message Effective, simple, repeatable brand

Messaging in Campaign Ads Sen. Ron Johnson (R – WI)

“We’re just a Wisconsin family worried about our country.” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8MSP8yFSsY

Washington outsider - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzsIsBLJCCg

Had enough of these phony political commercials? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMExLKHUyg0

Sen. Jim Webb (D – VA) Appealing to the other side.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEmjJIk8ga0 Rep. Morgan Griffith (R – VA)

Association - Obama Loves Rick Boucher - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7t8b42ZiTo

Policy - Cap and Trade - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxj_ko_Uz3g

Choosing the Wrong Message Daniel Freilich (D – VT) for Senate

“I’m on a Cow” http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=4I9h2d8hw6g#at=24

Rep. Alan Grayson (D – FL) Taliban Dan - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWdyf9eSkqQ

Paul R. Nelson (R – WI) for House Ron Kind, The Wrong Kind -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rx5LNXi5hwg Carly Fiorina (R – CA) candidate for Senate

Demon Sheep - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlgU23QGksI

Way too far. http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/mitt-romney-ad-1/n27669/

Fundraising “I’d rather wrestle a gorilla than ask anybody for fifty

cents.” Senator John Glenn (D - Ohio) Sources of Congressional candidate funds:

1) Individual contributors $2,400 per candidate $45,600 per election

2) PACS 3) Party Committees 4) Personal Funds

Incumbents always do better. Why? House incumbents outspent challengers six times over in 2010. Senate incumbents outspent 11 times over in 2010.

2012 Spending in PA Races http://www.opensecrets.org/states/cands.php?state=PA&cycle=

2012

Can you buy votes? Not exactly. Challengers

Spending is positively correlated with electoral success.

Incumbents Spending negatively correlated with electoral

success. Why? Spending matters less later in campaign

races.

Campaign Techniques Air Wars

Positive vs. Negative ads – what are the tradeoffs? Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA) of 2002

Requires candidates personally appear with their advertisements. Evolving mass media

“Word of mouth on steroids.” The Ground War

“Pressing the flesh.” Get out the vote (GOTV) drives

Parallel Campaigns Outside players – Freedom Watch – “Dina Titus must be from

TaxUs” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5O7rwAj6G4 Citizens United v. FEC - Corporate spending

http://www.oyez.org/cases/2000-2009/2008/2008_08_205 Super PACs