Current Climate Trends and Implications · Current Climate Trends and Implications Dr. Mark Seeley Professor emeritus Department of Soil, Water, and Climate University of Minnesota
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Current Climate Trends and Implications
Dr. Mark SeeleyProfessor emeritus
Department of Soil, Water, and ClimateUniversity of Minnesota
St Paul, MN 55108
Crop Insurance ConferenceSeptember 12, 2018
Mankato, MN
2” thunderstorm at Mankato, MN
Sep 12, 1984
92 degrees F at Mankato, MN Sep 12, 1998
-31 degrees F Mankato, MNSep 12, 1955
Dust storm at Mankato, MN Sep 12, 1931
Today in Mankato Climate History
Segments
Big picture disparities
Changes in Regional Climate Attributes
Examination of Extremes
Current Climate Conditions
Outlooks
Disparity in the pace of climate change relative to temperature
Geographic Disparity in Precipitation Change-IPCC 2013
2017 warmth by state
Statewide Precipitation Ranks for Jan-Sep, 2017
Temp trend is upward and more frequently above the 90th percentile, pace is 2°F per century
Minnesota Mean Annual Temperature Trends
Seasonal Statewide Temperature Trends in MN
Winter (D,J,F) Spring (M,A,M)
Summer (J,J,A) Fall (S,O,N)
‐3.0
‐2.0
‐1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
Augu
st
September
October
November
December
Annual
degrees F per century
Minnesota State‐Averaged Temperature Trends1895‐2013
Maximum Temperature Trend Minimum Temperature Trend Difference (Max minus Min)
Trends in mean monthly temperatures at Austin, MN 1971-2000 normals vs 1981-2010 normals (F)
Month Min Change Max Change Mean ChangeJanuary +3.0 +2.1 +2.5February +0.1 +0.2 +0.1March -0.1 -0.1 -0.2April +1.3 +0.2 +0.7May +0.9 -0.8 +0.1 June +1.6 -0.4 +0.5July +1.1 +0.2 +0.7August +1.6 +0.4 +1.0September +1.3 +0.6 +1.0October +1.7 -0.3 +0.7November +2.1 +1.7 +1.9December +2.2 +1.4 +1.8
Trends in mean monthly temperatures at Waseca, MN 1971-2000 normals vs 1981-2010 normals (F)
Month Min Change Max Change Mean ChangeJanuary +2.5 +1.9 +2.2February +0.5 +0.7 +0.6March +0.7 +1.1 +0.9April +0.9 +1.7 +1.2May +0.7 -0.1 +0.3 June +1.2 +0.3 +0.7July +1.1 +0.5 +0.7August +1.1 +0.7 +0.9September +1.3 +0.8 +1.1October +0.6 +0.4 +0.5November +1.1 +1.5 +1.3December +1.2 +0.9 +1.0
Trends in mean monthly temperatures at Mankato, MN 1971-2000 normals vs 1981-2010 normals (F)
Month Min Change Max Change Mean ChangeJanuary +2.3 +1.5 +1.9February +0.7 +0.2 +0.4March +0.5 +0.2 +0.3April +0.6 +0.6 +0.6May +1.0 -1.2 -0.2 June +0.9 -1.0 -0.1July +0.8 -0.6 +0.1August +1.0 -0.6 +0.1September +1.5 -0.1 +0.6October +0.8 -0.5 +0.1November +1.7 +1.4 +1.5December +2.0 +0.8 +1.3
Great Lakes Region (32°F threshold)
-10
-5
0
5
10
1895 1915 1935 1955 1975 1995
Year
Fro
st-
Fre
e S
ea
so
n (
da
ys
fro
m n
orm
al)
Length Spring FallSource: K. Kunkel, Midwest. Reg. Clim. Center
Consequences of Warm Winters and Higher Minimum Temperatures
• Change in depth and duration of soil and lake freezing• More rapid breakdown of crop residues• Later fall nitrogen applications (soil temp too high)• Longer outdoor construction season, fewer adverse
weather days• Change in over winter survival rates of insect pests and
plant diseases, and soil microbes• Reduced energy use for heating (fewer HDD)• Change in Plant Hardiness Zones• Longer frost-free growing seasons• Increased number of freeze/thaw cycles (damaged roads)• Change in animal migration, hibernation, and foraging• Longer exposure times to mold and allergens
Winter (D,J,F) Spring (M,A,M)
Summer (J,J,A) Fall (S,O,N)
Seasonal Trends in MN Precipitation
Average Annual PPT 1891‐1920, in
Average Annual PPT 1921‐1950, in
Average Annual PPT 1951‐1980, in Average Annual PPT 1981‐2010, in
Avg. Annual PPT, in
< 20
21 - 25
26 - 28
29 - 30
> 30
Change in Annual Precipitation“Normals” at Austin, MN
PERIOD AMOUNT (IN.)1941-1970 30.94”1951-1980 29.84”1961-1990 28.94”1971-2000 31.97”1981-2010 34.55”
12 percent increase since 1941-1970 period
Change in Annual Precipitation“Normals” at Waseca, MN
PERIOD AMOUNT (IN.)
1921-1950 27.55”1931-1960 27.82”1941-1970 29.94”1951-1980 30.62”1961-1990 32.45”1971-2000 34.69”1981-2010 35.72”
30 percent increase since 1921-1950 period
Change in Annual Precipitation“Normals” at Mankato, MN
PERIOD AMOUNT (IN.)
1921-1950 27.26”1931-1960 28.09”1941-1970 29.31”1951-1980 28.37”1961-1990 28.89”1971-2000 30.91”1981-2010 31.95”
17 percent increase since 1921-1950 period
Historical recurrence interval of 2 inch rains in southern and eastern MN was calculated to be once per year. This is no longer the case.
Observed 2 inch rainfalls for the period 1991 –2015 and maximum single day value for various communities:Location No. 2 in. rains Maximum Value (date)Albert Lea 49 7.50 (6/15/1978)Waseca 54 5.63 (9/23/2010)Winnebago 47 8.64 (9/25/2005)Owatonna 46 6.47 (8/19/2007)Amboy 42 9.48 (9/23/2010)Windom 40 8.84 (9/23/2010)Fairmont 41 6.20 (9/15/2004) Blue Earth 47 5.50 (6/15/1978)Bricelyn 42 9.22 (9/14/2004)
Radiosonde history of PW at MSP since 1948
Observations – Minnesota Trends
Minnesota Mega‐rain Events
August 6, 1866, Southern MinnesotaJuly 17‐19 1867, Central Minnesota July 20‐22, 1909, Northern MinnesotaSeptember 9‐10, 1947 Iron RangeJuly 21‐22, 1972, Grand Daddy Flash FloodJune 28‐29, 1975, Northwest MinnesotaJuly 23‐24, 1987, Twin Cities SuperstormJune 9‐10, 2002, Northern MinnesotaSeptember 14‐15, 2004 Southern MinnesotaAugust 18‐20, 2007, Southern MinnesotaSeptember 22‐23, 2010 Southern MinnesotaJune 19‐20, 2012, Northeast MinnesotaJuly 11‐12, 2016 central and east‐central MinnesotaAugust 10‐11, 2016 west‐central and southeastern Minnesota
*Defined as 6” or greater rains cover at least 1000 square miles and a peak amount of 8” or greater
Shift in Precipitation Recurrence
Intervals
Mega Rains since 2002
MN Counties designated for
federal disaster assistance in
2012
All are associated with drought except those
with
which designates for flood or severe
storm
Possible Implications of Changes in Precipitation Quantity and Character
• Altered irrigation, drainage, runoff, sediment, and shoreline management
• Change in storm sewer runoff design• Modified fisheries management• Mitigation of soil erosion• Mitigation of flooding potential
U.S. Drought Monitor 2018
Lamberton, MN
5ft soil moisture profile
Sep-Nov Oct-Dec Nov-Jan
Ensemble forecast for Oct-Dec, 2018 Temperature Anomaly
Ensemble forecast for precipitation anomaly Oct-Dec 2018
SUMMARY
Trends toward warmer temperature and more precipitation continue in recent years.
Probability for an extended fall season is high
Probability for another warm winter (Dec-Feb) is high
Probability for early spring is high (at least 80% in most cases).
Probability for warmer than normal growing in 2019 season is high.
Outlook for moisture is uncertain, but stored soil moisture by December of 2018 will be an indicator of production potential for 2019
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